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Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 5 with Patrick Bamford | 9/17/21

Jovanni Vidal



EPL DFS picks DraftKings FanDUel English Premier League soccer optimal lineup optimizer Patrick Bamford free expert projections odds Leeds

Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Friday, Sept. 17. Here you will find the top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

EPL Odds Report

**All Odds from BetMGM**

Newcastle (+210) vs. Leeds United (+125), O/U 2.5

DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today

Newcastle plays host to Leeds United. There are no worse teams in terms of conceding dating back to a season ago. Leeds allowed 62.9 expected goals a season ago, sitting second-0worst in the EPL. Newcastle was not far behind with 54 expected goals allowed. Newcastle posted 24.1 expected goals at home, which was far better than their road mark of 16.9. Leeds’ offense posted 26.9 expected goals on the road. Through four matches on the year, both clubs sit dead last with nine expected goals allowed apiece. Their offenses sit around the mid-tier with Leeds holding a better mark with an expected goals of 4.9 compared to Newcastle’s 4.1.

In terms of volume, Leeds United has allowed 6.5 shots on target per match this season, which is the most in the league. Newcastle is tied third in the EPL with 4.75 shots on target per match. These numbers do not mean much if the offenses cannot capitalize. This is not the case here. Newcastle has a high-paced talented offense spread between Joseph Willock, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson. Wilson and Saint-Maximin have contributed on every goal in the young season for the hosts, albeit it is only five.

Leeds United boosts a a front line with Patrick Bamford, Raphina and Jack Harrison. Like Newcastle Leeds has yet to start the offense and sits at just an actual goal a match. Raphina and Bamford have contributed on that overall scoring and accounted for 65% of the clubs overall scoring a season ago. This match is a chance for Leeds to get right the ship on the season.

The Over 2.5 at -150 (BetMGM) sits still at a solid price. Closer to the match this should close closer to -180. I cannot imagine Newcastle fails to score a goal at home against this defense, so a slight better value would be the both teams to score prop -175 (BetMGM) parlayed with the O2.5 which sits at -129 payout and corelates well together.


Raphina (DraftKings: $16,800, FanDuel: $13)

Matt Ritchie (DraftKings: $10,800, FanDuel: $10)

Raphina is the most expensive play on DraftKings. He holds the volume of indirect set pieces, and his open play volume averages three shots, six crosses and two drawn fouls per match. All these categories lead Leeds. His floor is the highest on the slate and his goal involvement allows for plenty of upside. On FanDuel, you get a slight discount on the ask, but his on target accuracy of 16.7% hurts his floor there.

Matt Ritchie handles set shares for Newcastle as long as Jonjo Shelvey remains injured. Ritchie is not known for scoring, but his floor is undeniable with six crosses and four won tackles and interceptions per match. His upside sits with the scoring chances created of four per match. More importantly is the price discount Ritchie provides. Rostering him in the captain spot allows for the spread of the goal-hunters mentioned above form both clubs.


Joseph Willock (DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $6)

Luke Ayling (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel: $9)

Joseph Willock is one of the goal hunting options for Newcastle. Wilson and Saint-Maximin are the priorities but in a Leeds favored stack, Willock is lower on the ask and free on FanDuel. He has yet to get off the volume dealing with injuries. Willock ranked second a season ago for the hosts in overall scoring and averaged 0.70 goals per match. His on-target accuracy of 70.6% makes his FanDuel salary easy to pay off and allows you to roster the heavy hitters of Leeds United.

Luke Ayling pushes up the wing on offense and ranked third a season ago for his club with 70 crosses. His DFS production in predominately on defense where he led Leeds a season ago with 4.55 won tackles and interceptions a season ago. He is better slotted in the defender spot on FanDuel, and with no expected clean-sheet bonus, his price seems slightly to high on DraftKings. The FanDuel defender expected to garner the most ownership would be Ritchie and would be the easy will in cash. Ayling is a GPP play on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Other Options: Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $7), Jacob Murphy (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $8).

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Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL DFS home page.

Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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