Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Saturday, Feb. 27. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projections to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel English Premier League tournaments and cash games.
[FREESOCCER]
EPL Odds Report
West Bromwich (+320) vs. Brighton (-105), O/U 3.5
Leeds United (+125) vs. Aston Villa (+200), O/U 3.5
Newcastle United (+260) vs. Wolverhampton (+115), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Feb. 27
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forwards/Midfielders
Pascal Gross (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $16)
Matheus Pereira (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $14)
West Bromwich sports the worst home defense in the English Premier League, with 1.85 expected goals against per match. Brighton’s road defense is far worse than what it is at home, allowing a league-average 1.33 expected goals.
Pascal Gross will continue to have set-piece monopoly with no return set for Solly March. He doesn’t need goal contribution to pay off his price, and that just adds to his upside. Gross builds his floor on 5.57 crosses per match and 3.09 shots/assisted shots. West Brom will be without a key center back in Semi Ajayi, which offers set-piece advantage to the defenders of Brighton. This benefits Gross on corner deliveries. In the attack, Leandro Trossard is the most active for his club in recent form, while Neal Maupay comes with a discounted ask and shot volume to match. Joel Veltman continues to produce on the wing and is in consideration for GPPs if Tariq Lamptey does not return.
On the other side of the pitch, Matheus Pereira is the most explosive attacker for the host. He handles set pieces and is not shy to shoot. His floor sees 3.52 crosses per match and 3.33 shots/assisted shots per match. He adds value with 1.52 drawn fouls per match and faces the fifth-most penalized club in the EPL (11.8 per match). Alongside Pereira is Mbaye Diagne. Diagne has the advantage of facing Brighton away from home and continues to get quality chances up front. Conor Gallagher is a GPP option for salary relief at under $5,000 that can produce through various offensive and defensive metrics.
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $22)
Bertrand Traore (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $13)
Aston Villa will face the explosive offense of Leeds United. That offense also has jeopardized the defense in some big matches. Aston Villa look to take advantage against the fourth-worst home defense in the EPL. Ollie Watkins has the shooting volume (2.78 per match) and accuracy (45% on target), to find the back of the net. If Jack Grealish returns, that aids Watkins’ cause with spread out attention and quality deliveries.
The absence of Grealish opens up more volume for Bertrand Traore and Anwar El Ghazi should he start. Traore is a creator on the wing, with 3.38 open play crosses and 2.23 shots/assisted shots per match. These metrics increase in full-game runs. Grealish would be the ideal cash play if he is in. If not, Ross Barkley is an all format core play at under $6,000. He would look to handle the set pieces.
Allan Saint-Maximin (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $15)
Newcastle needs to start winning as they near the relegation zone. They host a Wolverhampton club that are worse on the road with a mid-tier EPL defense that allows 1.30 expected goals. Allan Saint-Maximin is a shot in the arm for the host and builds a floor on two drawn fouls per match and 1.73 shots/assisted shots. His 50% on target accuracy and volume offer scoring upside. A Salary relief core play lies in Jonjo Shelvey, who handles the sets for Newcastle and sits at a sub-$5,500 price tag. Shelvey will have no issues paying off the ask with 4.23 crosses per match and 2.88 shots/assisted shots per match.
Other Options: Pedro Neto (DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $18), Raphinha (DraftKings $10,700, FanDuel $19), Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $21), Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $14)
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Lewis Dunk (DraftKings $4,300, FanDuel $15)
As mentioned above, Brighton will have an advantage on the set corners. Lewis Dunk has connected on one of those chances in seven of his last 10 matches and converted two in that span. The asking price is high but the floor should cover most of it with 1.59 interceptions and won tackles per match to compliment the shot volume and drawn fouls. Dan Burn is the pivot for a slight discount. He offers equal set upside and defensive metrics but adds 1.58 crosses per match. The downside is the aggression of Burn sees him among the top the squad in fouls committed.
Other Options: Nelson Semedo (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $12), Darnell Furlong (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $6), Luke Ayling (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $12)
Goalkeepers
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $7)
Karl Darlow (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $9)
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