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EPL

Corner Kick: UCL DFS Picks for Matchday 4 with Mohamed Salah | 11/3/21

Jovanni Vidal

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UCL DFS picks DraftKings FanDuel daily fantasy soccer optimal lineup optimizer projections rankings ownership today tonight Matchday 4 Mohamed Salah Wednesday October 3, 2021

Welcome to the Champions League DFS coverage for Wednesday, Nov. 3. Below are the top UCL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 4, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These UCL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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**All Odds from BetMGM**

Manchester City (-900) vs. Club Brugge (+2,500), O/U 3.5

RB Leipzig (+185) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (+130), O/U 2.5

Lisbon (-250) vs. Besiktas (+575), O/U 2.5

Liverpool (-160) vs. Atletico Madrid (+475), O/U 2.5

Dortmund (+150) vs. Ajax (+150), O/U 3.5

Tiraspol (+950) vs. Inter Milan (-350), O/U 3.5

Forwards/Midfield

Mohamed Salah (DraftKings: $11,700, FanDuel: $21)

Diogo Jota (DraftKings: $6,900, FanDuel: $18)

Liverpool welcomes the reigning La Liga champions. In their previous meeting in Madrid, Liverpool posted three goals and exploited a usually strong defense with 1.2 expected goals and a barrage of shots, hitting five on target. They now come home where the offense has been unstoppable, with 2.1 expected goals and two actual goals per match. Atletico has been exposed by Levante and Real Sociedad conceding a pair of goals in each outing. They bounced back with a clean sheet against Real Bettis but will find it hard to repeat that performance on this slate.

Mohamed Salah comes in as a top option, mainly due to a lack of brace options with Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi out. Salah leads Liverpool in goals and is atop the club in shots per match with 4.1 and on-target accuracy at 48%. He looks to keep his scoring run going and has contributed on 55% of the clubs scoring. Diogo Jota is looking to spell Roberto Firmino atop the attacking formation. Jota comes in too cheap for his output since joining the home side. He has four goals in seven starts and averages 2.99 shots per match with an on-target accuracy clip of 45%. Jota lacks a floor but comes significantly cheaper than Salah and Sadio Mane, who will sink any lineup should they fail to score. Jota serves as a one-off option for cheaper exposure to high-paced offense if looking to stack a few other clubs below.

Sebastien Haller (DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $21)

Antony (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel: $18)

Ajax play visitors to Dortmund after tallying four goals in their previous outing. Dortmund will need to match the high pace attack of Ajax. The issue is they are missing their biggest weapon. Ajax posted 19 shots while finding the target on nine of those. Ajax have been far more explosive at home, scoring 72.9% of their total goals. Dortmund have struggled at home, with 1.35 expected goals allowed. Ajax is a step up from their German competition, with the exception of one or two clubs.

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Sebastien Haller is the goal-hunting option in this match. He has been red hot across all competitions, with 13 goals in 14 starts. His shot volume is 4.48 per match in the Champions league, far higher than his 3.75 shots in the Netherlands. At the price he needs to find the back of the net, but the attacks of Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain will garner greater exposure at similar price tags.

The wingman alongside Haller, Antony, has done well to contribute on the score sheet. He comes in at a low enough price when factoring in a contribution rate of 20% and his lower number of games. Antony has made use of his time on the field, with 4.34 shots per match and 39.1% on-target accuracy. The core floor play for Ajax is Dusan Tadic. Tadic does well on the contribution of his side via an even split on goals and assists. His floor is built on 8.61 crosses per match and 2.25 shots.

Neymar (DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $19)

Noah Lang (DraftKings: $3,800, FanDuel: $14)

Manchester City will garner all the ownership in the world. They are essentially a risky fade, as they posted a royal beatdown against Club Brugge in their last meeting. It is more important to find value to fit in the scoring options above and include Manchester City. That value can be found in the Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City games.

Neymar is clearly mispriced. If Messi were available, the set and open-play splits would make sense for the price. Without Messi, Neymar might concede some indirect set shares to Angel Di Maria. Should Di Maria not seeing the starting 11, Neymar is the man. Regardless, Neymar is a core play in all formats. RB Leipzig allowed two goals to Club Brugge, three to this same PSG side, and were massacred by Manchester City 6-3. They lack any conviction on defense and Paris Saint-Germain will look to exploit that. Neymar averages 4.08 shots and 5.03 crosses per match a season ago without Messi. Di Maria surpassed him on the crossing volume, but both evenly split the indirect sets. Neymar led the club with 8.28 scoring chances created per match and 4.27 drawn fouls. His floor starts at 2x the price, and his upside is in his even split of goal contribution matched with brace upside.

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Club Brugge will see Manchester City at home. They are a more impressive home team and will look to absorb pressure and hit the reigning EPL champions on the counter. It is far-fetched to assume Brugge will win this match, but there is a punt option to jam plenty of stars on this slate. Noah Lang has handled the indirect set shares for the home side and does well in open play. He averages 2.31 crosses per match, which sees an uptick without the presence of Ruud Vormer. Lang adds to his metrics with 1.74 drawn fouls per match and has contributed on 39.13% of the home team’s scoring. Hans Vanaken is an option as well, but it is hard to pass up the discount Lang provides should Vanaken not continue his scoring streak. Lang is strictly a DraftKings option due to the salary relief.

Other Options: Kylian Mbappe (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $20), Paulinho (DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $20), Pedro Goncalves (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $18), Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings $10,500, FanDuel $19), Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $13). Lautaro Martinez (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $19)

Defense

Angelino (DraftKings: $5,400, FanDuel: $11)

Trent Alexander-Arnold is the Liverpool’s set-piece man and the top option at the defender spot. The price is tough to get to, but in cash games he is hard to pass up. Angelino handles the indirect set shares and offers volume in the open play. The visitors will need to find offense to keep pace with Paris Saint-Germain. Angelino has averaged 7.5 crosses per match in his Champions League outing and supplied the pass for two finishes in their previous tournament defeat. He averages 2.74 won tackles/interceptions and creates 3.70 scoring chances per match. Angelino should have no issues paying off this price against a depleted PSG, which also could be without the services of Mbappe.

Other Options: Nicolas Tagliafico (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $7), Oleksandr Zinchenko (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $8), Cristiano (DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $12)

Goalkeeper

Antonio Adan (DraftKings: $5,700, FanDuel: $12)

Remko Pasveer (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel: $10)


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Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL DFS home page.

Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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