The Champions League semifinals have arrived. The second leg of the semifinal between Liverpool and Villarreal takes place in Spain. Liverpool hold a 2-0 aggregate lead, which will force Villarreal to abandon a tight defensive alignment. On the road Liverpool comes in as the moneyline favorite at -143 (BetMGM). Liverpool is just as lethal on the road, with 2.17 expected goals per match. Their defense allows 1.17 expected goals on the road, which nearly doubles their home marks. Villarreal posts 1.98 expected goals at home, ranking second in La Liga. Their defense at home concedes 1.07 expected goals. Hunting for multiple goals does not play into Villarreal’s favor, and Liverpool is not the club to sit on the lead. Liverpool will look to score early and put on the two-leg stranglehold.
The over under of 2.5 total goals for this match sits with a juiced over at -150 (BetMGM). Unlike the first leg where the under was the lean, the counterpunches from Liverpool alone can shatter this total. Villarreal averages 4.21 shots on target in a weaker league than the EPL. Liverpool allows 2.68 shots on target per match. Betting the total is still a pass, with a model showing less than three shots on target from Villarreal. The best bet is the over on 9.5 corners at -120 (BetMGM). Liverpool can hit this mark on their own, and Villarreal will be attempting to steal possession and take any chances they can.
Below are the top UCL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert UCL DFS projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These UCL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
UCL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer Lineups
Mohamed Salah (DraftKings: $16,200, FanDuel $16)
Sadio Mane (DraftKings: $15,600, FanDuel $14)
Luis Diaz (DraftKings: $15,000, FanDuel $13)
The Captain selections look similar to Leg 1. Liverpool is not going to sit back and decide to start playing if they concede first. The scoring is spread across the front line, with Mohamed Salah leading his club and the EPL. His double-digit assist total makes him a must-own, as he can contribute on any of Sadio Mane or Luis Diaz’s goals. The issue with Salah is his price making it hard to stack Liverpool. The highest-owned Captain on the slate is without a doubt Trent Alexander-Arnold. His floor is the highest regardless of clean sheet, but he’s a Flex play since Villarreal will not allow him to make 15 crosses.
In cash games on DraftKings Salah and Alexander-Arnold are the Captains of choice. Alexander-Arnold is the slight preference with the mentioned floor and salary discount. Whichever is not the Captain slots 100% into the Flex spot. In GPPs Diaz or Mane will destroy lineups if they cannot find the back of the net. Diaz offers a slightly higher floor than Mane with over 3.5 shots per match. His on-target rate and ability to create his own chances on the wing make him the best single-entry play at the Captain spot. If Diogo Jota or Roberto Firmino see the starting 11, Mane will fit the preference over Jota as he moves to the attacking winger role. On FanDuel Salah is the cash play at Captain since Alexander-Arnold cannot be rostered. Diaz and Mane are the pivots in GPP for scoring.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel $10)
Andrew Robertson (DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel $9)
Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson both are discounted a bit from Leg 1. Despite lower expected crossing volume, they still are top Flex plays, with created chances rates over 3.40 per match apiece. Alexander-Arnold has just under five created chances per match. He also leads the club in won tackles/interceptions with 3.94 per match. For salary construction, pairing just one of these with a Joel Matip or Ibrahim Konate would free up the slots for two of Salah, Mane or Diaz. Both the center backs average north of 3.50 won tackles/interceptions per match. They also are the main attackers on corner deliveries. With elevated salaries, a goal by Villarreal will make it difficult for the center backs and goalkeeper of Liverpool to hit any sort of value.
Arnaut Danjuma (DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel $11)
Giovanni Lo Celso (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel $9)
The only stacks that make sense are 5-1 Liverpool stacks. The keeper and two defenders are necessary for a Liverpool clean sheet. For Villarreal to help the over on 2.5 goals, then stacking one wingback from Liverpool with the front line can still make that work with the right one-off. Arnaut Danjuma leads the club in scoring and has 3.60 shots per match, while Giovanni Lo Celso has a mix of 1.87 shots, 3.05 created scoring chances and 2.80 won tackles/interceptions per match. Lo Celso is the preferred one-off because the discounted price creates an avenue to 1.5x value, regardless of if Villarreal scores or not. Danjuma is a GPP play as direct leverage over a 50%-owned Alisson. Danjuma will cost one of the attackers up front, but he allows for a top Captain like Salah or Alexander-Arnold and another Liverpool attacker in the Flex, plus balance in floor plays like Daniel Parejo.
Alisson warrants some consideration in GPPs when considering the two saves and a clean sheet win should fit him in the optimal. In cash games, however, the odds of one of those two shots getting by him in a win make him not worth the price. Goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli has seen his price skyrocket from Leg 1 to $1,600 higher. The model expects five shots on target and two to go in. One fewer shot than projected or one more goal and Rulli is looking at less than 0.5x value. He also will not have the extra defenders in front to help him unless Villarreal wants to win this match 1-0 and still go home packing.
Other Options: Juan Foyth (DraftKings: $3,600, FanDuel: $6), Jordan Henderson (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel $6)
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