This two-game slate sees Liverpool and Manchester City holding a first leg aggregate lead. Liverpool will be the home side against Benfica and is the largest favorite on the slate at -345 (BetMGM). Manchester City go on the road against Atletico Madrid and comes in as a slight -137 (BetMGM) favorite. Liverpool should be able to handle Benfica like the first leg and they are not known to hold back and absorb in the lead. Benfica sports the worst defense of the four clubs on this slate, and going on the road will see them pushing up to find a minimum of two goals if they want to advance. Liverpool should have room on the counter with speed in the attack to punish Benfica. The close matchup will be Atletico Madrid at home. Manchester City is the better side, but they were only able to manage one goal in the first leg. Atletico will need to open up that sit-back style of defense, as a draw will send them home packing. Manchester City in in position to exploit the back line with their star-studded roster and could see out a better performance than the first outing.
Below are the top UCL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert UCL DFS projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These UCL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
UCL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer Lineups
Atletico Madrid (+400) vs. Manchester City (-137), over/under 2.5
Liverpool (-345) vs. Benfica (+850), over/under 2.5
Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings: $10,600, FanDuel $19)
Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $10,000, FanDuel $20)
Atletico Madrid allows a 0.70 expected goals per match at home. Manchester City is far superior an offense than they are used to in La Liga with an expected goals on the road of 2.24. This towers over the road offenses of any La Liga team by 0.615 expected goals per match. Atletico will have to open up in search of a goal and multiple should they concede. Manchester City’s attack is priced above that of Liverpool’s and could see a slight drop in ownership. Riyad Mahrez and Kevin De Bruyne are the cornerstones for Manchester City.
Mahrez comes in with the highest price on DraftKings and gets the nod on indirect and direct set shares over De Bruyne. Mahrez averages 3.50 shots per match to De Bruyne’s 3.07. De Bruyne has the on-target accuracy by a slight margin at 43% to 35%. De Bruyne has a floor build on 7.06 crosses per match and 5.23 created scoring chances. Mahrez contributes with 3.52 scoring chances created and 6.93 crosses per match. They are top two on the club in goals scored, with Raheem Sterling tying the bunch. If not for the presence of Mohamed Salah, they logical approach would be to pair Mahrez and De Bruyne. This still could be the case if targeting the two other attackers from Liverpool or the Wingbacks mentioned below which are very much involved in the Liverpool offensive onslaughts.
On DraftKings Mahrez would get the GPP nod over De Bruyne if choosing between the two. On FanDuel the on-target accuracy of De Bruyne along with the mark up in created chances would make him the go to for just $1 more. Both would need goal contribution to pay off the price with Mahrez holding a slight edge on DraftKings for the floor. The pieces around the Manchester City attack of Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva make the stacking pieces at sub $7,000 a piece on DraftKings. On FanDuel the $18 for Sterling points to Mahrez with his higher shot output. Silva is in play across all sites with created chances of 4.05 per match and seven goals on the year. For Madrid, Antoine Griezmann offers value at home given set shares and penalty duties.
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel $17)
Luis Diaz (DraftKings: $8,300, FanDuel $18)
Liverpool are in a good spot at home. Salah is always in consideration. The interesting spot is in which of the attackers fill the two spots alongside Salah. Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino all are in play. There is no reason to start Mane or Salah for that matter when they could come off the bench, but at this point it is a guessing game to what Jurgen Klopp will do. Neither of them are needed to come away with the win. Assuming Firmino and Diaz get the nod, they are coming in as cheap plays for a heavy favorite to hit the goal scoring mark. Diaz is the more active winger, with just under two crosses in open play to help the 3.33 shots per match in starts. He needs to find the back of the net at his current price, but so will any of the forwards from Manchester City or Liverpool not named Silva. Firmino is the leverage play as his price is not low enough to produce without the goal and his shot volume is 2.42, which is far below the four attackers on the team sheet ahead of him. Firmino does have an impressive on-target rate of 41%, and the price makes him a pivot to Sterling who will garner more ownership.
The bulk of the Liverpool attack can be consumed by the wingbacks and an early goal could see the attackers start to get subbed for their FA Cup clash against Manchester City on the weekend. The same goes for Manchester City, but they do not have the luxury of a home match, two goal lead, and have a tougher opponent. None of the attackers would make a cash build and Salah would be in consideration for single entry.
Benfica offers value in Darwin Nunez up front. He managed to find the back of the net in the first leg and has a commanding share of the team’s overall scoring. Nunez would be a big target point if Liverpool decide to rest any of the back line defense, mainly Virgil Van Dijk. As the current projected lineup stands, he serves as a one-off option in GPP at best.
Other Options: Joao Felix (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel $17), Mohamed Salah (DraftKings: $10,300, FanDuel $21), Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings: $6,700, FanDuel $15)
Alejandro Grimaldo (DraftKings: $5,200, FanDuel $13)
On Tuesday’s Champions League slate, the defender spot seemed weak. On this slate three defenders in a DraftKings lineup makes sense. The Liverpool defenders of Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold will garner all the ownership and one or the other fit the GPP build with both being cash game plays.
The floor play for a discounted price is Alejandro Grimaldo. The price seems elevated for the matchup but Grimaldo handles the indirect set shares for Benfica. He averages 6.54 crosses per match and can hold the floor with defensive metrics. He averages 2.35 won tackles/interceptions, which would see a bump against a possession-heavy team that stretch the passes down the front wingers.
Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel $15), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel $13), Joao Cancelo (DraftKings: $6,500, FanDuel $14)
Alisson (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel $13)
Ederson (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $11)
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