Welcome to EPL DFS for Nov. 7. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three-max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
Crystal Palace (+187) vs. Leeds United (+145), O/U 2.5
Chelsea (-278) vs. Sheffield United (+700), O/U 3.5
West Ham United (-125) vs. Fulham (+320), O/U 3.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Breakdown | Nov. 7
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield
Sebastien Haller (DraftKings $5,600 FanDuel $16)
Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $17)
Sebastien Haller didn’t get the memo that he was starting last game. That is fine by me, as he should garner no ownership with choices of Chelsea attack and Leeds on the slate. Haller allows salary for the other options and gets a match up upgrade. Fulham is allowing an expected goals of 10.9, which sits them third worst in the EPL. Haller is not taking on Liverpool and I like him to get some shot volume up and return to his Eintracht Frankfurt form form a couple years ago.
Jarrod Bowen has also struggled of late, but should see an increase in output with the match up. He averages 4 crosses a game and 1.2 drawn fouls a game. Fulham averages 12.57 fouls per game, ranking them fourth highest in the EPL, which should help Bowen increase volume.
Timo Werner (DraftKings $8,400 FanDuel $22)
Tammy Abraham (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $16)
The Chelsea attack is coming in mispriced on the slate. Sheffield United is a solid defense on the road , allowing an expected goals against of 3.8, but overall are below mid tier in the EPL with 9.8. Timo Werner is averaging 3.14 shots and assisted shots per game and scoring in 42% of his appearances on average. Werner has also seem to have claimed the PK roll for the club.
Tammy Abraham has had limited minutes for Chelsea, but has already contributed to the overall scoring with a goal and an assist. He scored in 44% of his appearances a season ago which included just 25 starts. He is averaging 2.53 shots per game and hitting the target at a40% accuracy clip dating back to last season. I would also roll Hakim Ziyech into the mix, as the stars in Stamford Bridge are well spread in their offensive attack.
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Jack Harrison (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $17)
Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel $20)
Crystal Palace is a solid team at home, with an expected goals against of 4 compared to their overall of 10.1. I still like the attack of Leeds United for the price. Leeds road offense is posting an expected goals for of 5.7, ranking them sixth best in the EPL. Jack Harrison can rack of points in a hurry without finding the back of the net. He is averaging 4 shots and assisted shots per game to compliment the 6 crosses per game. His floor is high and his upside comes in the form of goal contribution.
Patrick Bamford has been a scoring machine, and this time out should be no different. He is averaging 3.85 shots per game, with on target accuracy of 48%. He is averaging a goal in almost every appearance for the club and brings brace upside to the table.
Other Options: Andros Townsend (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $16), Aleksandar Mitrovic (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $16), Bobby de Cordova-Reid (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $13), Tom Cairney (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $11), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $17)
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $13)
Antonee Robinson (DraftKings $5,200 FanDuel $12)
Aaron Cresswell builds value with open play crossing volume to an average of 6.85 per game. He is averaging 1.85 assisted shot per game and can contribute with interceptions while finding upside in goal contribution. He gets the plus match up against the Fulham defense and serves as an alternative to Ben Chillwell and or Reece James.
On the comeback to the game we have Antonee Robinson who is averaging 5.75 open play crosses per game and 2.5 won tackles and interceptions per game. West Ham sports the fourth best home defense in the EPL, with an expected goals against of 3.1, but Robinson doesn’t need scoring to hit value.
Other Options: Ben Chillwell (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $15), Luke Ayling (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $13), Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $14), Vladimir Coufal (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $11).
Illan Meslier (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $10)
Edouard Mendy (DraftKings $5,800 FanDuel $14)
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