The following are EPL betting picks for Game Week 19 where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. I feel comfortable placing at least a unit. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and English Premier League odds, which can be found via OddsShopper.
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Favorite EPL Odds & Betting Picks | Game Week 19
Leicester City vs. Southampton: Southampton Win/Draw Double (+115)
Southampton will head on the road after an upset win against Liverpool. Southampton has been less impressive on the road, with an expected goals differential of -2.3, around EPL average. Leicester City is equally as bad at home, sitting sixth worst in the EPL. Leicester City has kept just one clean sheet in their last five games, while Southampton has held four in their last six games. Of note was holding off the reigning champions Liverpool.
It is hard to keep Leicester City off the scoresheet, but I like Southampton to match the pace. In what should be a close game, Southampton will have the benefit of an extra rest, with their FA Cup match postponed. Dany Ings and company should be able to break down Leicester enough to walk away with at least a point.
If Leicester City where to rest Jamie Vardy or James Maddison, given the congested schedule, I would consider a smaller play on the Southampton money line, but by the time Lineups are announced, the value will likely have dropped. I think Southampton will do enough to see out a victory, but I like the plus money on the hedge against a 1-1 draw.
Aston Villa vs. Everton: Aston Villa Win/Draw Double (-105)
Aston Villa will host Everton this weekend. Assuming the Villa starters are back and ready to go, they have had an extended rest period. Villa sports the fourth-best home offense in the EPL, while Everton’s road offense is middle of the pack. Everton could still be missing Richarlison or Dominic Calvert-Lewin for this match.
I expect there will be goals scored on both sides. Everton might not come out as explosive without the two front men. I do not think the odds will shift much from this number. The right move is to wait to see confirmation if Jack Grealish, Anwar El Ghazi and the rest of the team are starting. I would suggest a small play on Villa to win the game as well due to the rest and the possible injuries for Everton. The bigger play is the hedge against the draw given we do not know the effect of the Aston Villa players that where effected by the COVID outbreak.
Bonus EPL Betting Picks/Soccer Wagers
EPL: Manchester United vs. Liverpool: Manchester United Win Draw Double (-115)
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