Welcome to EPL DFS for July 18 (7/18/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Norwich City (+225) vs. Burnley (+125), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have Burnley taking on Norwich City. Burnley sits mid tier in the EPL on defense with an expected goals against of 46% and below average on offense with an expected goals for of 40.3%. Norwich comes into the match up sporting the third worst offense in the EPL with an expected goals for of 38.6%. They compliment that mark with the third worst defense, giving up an expected goals against of 57.6%. Burnley are slight favorites probably credit to there poor offense but I like them to win the match 2-1.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Chris Wood (DraftKings $16,200, FanDuel $15)
Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $16,500, FanDuel $13)
Chris Wood sits in the top-35 in the EPL in shot volume. He has a 45% on target rate and has played a handful of games less than many of the leaders in volume above him. Dwight McNeil ranks fifth overall in the EPL in crossing volume. In cash games I like McNeil at the captain spot because of the floor and upside when you consider his 20% goal involvement for Burnley.
For GPP, I like Chris Wood at the captain spot because of the goal upside against a Norwich team that cannot grasp how to play defense. You do need a goal from Wood to pay off the price tag, but the match up is a plus and he accounts for 32.5% of Burnley’s overall scoring.
If Jay Rodriguez is in the game, I would also consider him a GPP option with Wood at the captain spot. Rodriguez comes in discounted from Wood and McNeil, contributes on 22.5% of Burnley’s overall scoring, and sits aligned with Wood in shot volume.
Chris Wood 2019-2020 stats: 12 goals, 58 shots.
Dwight McNeil 2019-2020 stats: 44 shots, 48 shots assisted, 228 crosses.
Emiliano Buendia (DraftKings $15,900, FanDuel $12)
Norwich City look to close out the season dead last in the EPL. With nothing to play for and relegation looming, it could be a contrarian way to go that they come out motivated. I will not be playing Norwich but upsets are always in the cards in soccer and you wont need much exposure to gain leverage on Buendia. He sits thirteenth in the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces. If he is out, I would look to Ondrej Duda as the set piece taker to replace him. Buendia does bring a high floor when playing full games and his upside is in shot and assisted shot volume, which comes at a combined 3.45 per game. My concern is his minutes, with the current state of his team.
Emiliano Buendia 2019-2020 stats: 7 assists, 81 shots assisted, 158 crosses.
Other Options: Teemu Pukki (DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $13).
Ashley Westwood (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $9)
Ashley Westwood is my lock in the flex spot. He is active for Burnley and sits top-20 in the EPL in crossing volume. He splits corners with Dwight McNeil and does contribute on 20% of Burnley’s overall scoring. The only reason to hold back from the captain tag is that I he yields set pieces to McNeil in close range shooting and I expect Burnley to put up a few goals which come off the foot of a Wood or Rodriguez. If any of McNeil or Wood are out for a reason or another, than Westwood bumps up.
Ashley Westwood 2019-2020 stats: 6 assists, 47 shots assisted, 135 crosses.
Nick Pope (DraftKings $7,400)
Nick Pope’s prize is expensive. normally I would need to consider a clean sheet to pay that price for a goalkeeper. I think Norwich can score maybe one, because the volume of shots Burnley gives up . Pope sees an average of 4.5 shots per game. Norwich is the worst offenses in the EPL by more than ten goals. Pope’s upside is not the win and clean sheet, it is the three to four saves he can make on top of that. The risk, as always with keepers, is Norwich scorers two and Pope does not come away with a win.
Jamal Lewis (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $7)
Jamal Lewis provides a solid floor built on crossing volume and drawn fouls. The price is low enough to pay off and I like him as one off option. On FanDuel he also provides a few clears and he does not need scoring to hit value.
Jamal Lewis 2019-2020 stats: 15 assisted shots, 43 crosses, 32 tackles won.
Other Options: Onel Hernanadez (DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $7), Max Aarons (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $6), Phil Bardsley (DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $9), Erick Pieters (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $7).