Welcome to EPL DFS for July 19 (7/19/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on FanDuel are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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EPL Odds Report
Sheffield United (+106) vs. Everton (+275), O/U 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion (-117) vs. Newcastle United (+340), O/U 2.5
Wolverhampton (-220) vs. Crystal Palace (+750), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: FanDuel main slate includes three games. DraftKings main slate includes two games and leaves out the Wolves vs Crystal Palace game.
Neal Maupay (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $19)
Glen Murray (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $14)
Leandro Trossard (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $16)
Neal Maupay looks to be back in the starting rotation. He ranks seventh in the EPL in shot volume and hits target 42% of the time. Brighton’s offense lacks power without Maupay, as he contributes to 33% of their overall scoring, and without him in the lineup, I do not like Brighton as much.
Glen Murray has seen limited action on the year but is expected to go against Newcastle. This season has not been a fair portrayal of Murray’s contributions to Brighton, and over the previous two seasons he has produced goals and shot volume over 1.5 per game. The matchup is a plus, but he needs to be involved in the scoring to pay off even a discounted price.
Newcastle defense is fourth worst in the EPL with an expected goals against of 57.3%. Leandro Trossard has been on a run of contribution in goals against tougher competition, and he is a core play for me. If Pascal Gross and Aaron Mooy remain out of the line up as expected, Trossard should earn some set piece shares on the corner to add to his crossing volume from open play. Trossard is averaging a shot and assisted shot combination of over 2.6 per game.
With the constant changes to Brighton’s starting roll, If Maupay is out, I would bump Murray up. If Mooy or Gross are in, I would add the starter to a core play with priority to Gross, but Trossard is still a core because his open play activity without set pieces.
Neil Maupay 2019-2020 stats: 10 goals, 92 shots.
Glenn Murray 2019-2020 stats: 18 shots, 15 drawn fouls.
Leandro Trossard 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 38 shots, 73 crosses.
Oliver Norwood (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $14)
John Fleck (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $8)
Oliver Norwood brings a high floor to slate at a discounted price. On a slate where I do not expect much scoring, I like him as a core play. He is eighth in the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces for Sheffield. If John Fleck is in the lineup as expected, he Norwood will share set pieces with him. Sheffield United is a defense-first team, and they produce much of their offense by way of set pieces, so it is viable to have both of these guys in a lineup. But because of price, give priority to Norwood.
Fleck brings added scoring upside and shot volume. Everton is an above-average defense with an expected goals against of 46.8%. Fleck serves as a goal-hunting option with a floor to leverage against the highly owned Brighton and Everton offenses.
Oliver Norwood 2019-2020 stats: 49 assisted shots, 191 crosses.
John Fleck 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 31 shots, 142 crosses.
Matt Ritchie (DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $10)
Allan Saint-Maximin (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $16)
Jonjo Shelvey (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $13)
Matt Ritchie is listed as a defender on FanDuel, and I like that he is priced as one. Any opportunity to have crossing volume, shot volume and assisted shot volume priced this low is top value. On DraftKings the price is high, but so is the floor with 5.32 crosses per game and 3.19 shot/assisted shots per game. Brighton’s defense is below average with an expected goals against of 52.5%, so they can be cracked.
Allan Saint-Maximin is currently listed as a game-time decision, and if he is in, I like his high-volume, open-play style. He can contribute with crosses, shots, drawn fouls and assisted shots. Saint-Maximin is an engine that makes Newcastle’s offense better, and he contributes on 19% of their overall scoring despite missing 10 games.
Jonjo Shelvey falls into the same category as Saint-Maximin as far as high production in limited games. If Saint-Maximin cannot go in this game, Shelvey becomes a lock for me given his equal goal contribution, crosses per game and set piece shares.
Matt Ritchie 2019-2020 stats: 24 shots, 27 shots assisted, 85 crosses.
Allan Saint-Maximin 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 4 assists, 46 shots.
Jonjo Shelvey 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 42 shots, 85 crosses.
Other options: Richarlison (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $21), Raul Jimenez (FanDuel $22) David McGoldrick (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $16), Miguel Almiron (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $15), Adama Traore (FanDuel $12), Joao Moutinho (FanDuel $14), Dwight Gayle (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $17), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $17).
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Lucas Digne (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $15)
Lucas Digne is a core play for me, regardless of price. He does not need scoring to pay off the price, as he is third in the EPL in crossing volume and takes corners for Everton. He averages over three shots/assisted shots per game and 2.67 won tackles/interceptions per game. The floor alone can pay off the price and his upside is in goal involvement. On FanDuel Digne will also give you high-volume clears.
Lucas Digne 2019-2020 stats: 70 shots assisted, 263 crosses.
Enda Stevens (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $12)
The price has come up on Enda Stevens, but he is pushing up more on offense in recent form. He is top 30 in the EPL in crossing volume and does it through open play so makes solid pairing with Fleck or Norwood. Stevens can add to his value with won tackles, interceptions and assisted shots.
Enda Stevens 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 4 assists, 33 shots assisted, 114 crosses.
Other Options: Tariq Lamptey (DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $11), Lewis Dunk (DraftKings $4,100, FanDuel $14), Federico Fernandez (DraftKings $3,300, FanDuel $14), Matt Doherty (FanDuel $13), Jonny (FanDuel $11).