Welcome to EPL DFS for July 26 (7/26/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on FanDuel are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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EPL Odds Report
Leicester City (+220) vs. Manchester United (+123), O/U 3.5
Manchester City (-1,430) vs. Norwich City (+2,800), O/U 3.5
West Ham (+205) vs. Aston Villa (+130), O/U 2.5
Burnley (+130) vs. Brighton & Hove (+215), O/U 2.5
Newcastle United (+650) vs. Liverpool (-250), O/U 3.5
Everton (+125) vs. Bournemouth (+200), O/U 2.5
Chelsea (-122) vs. Wolverhampton (+330), O/U 3
Southampton (+120) vs. Sheffield United (+235), O/U 2.5
Crystal Palace (+510) vs. Tottenham (-180), O/U 2.5
Arsenal (-108) vs. Watford (+265), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Son Heung-Min (DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $20)
Harry Kane (DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $22)
Son Heung-Min and Harry Kane are in a must-win situation for a chance to jump into the Europa League qualifications. They also need a loss or tie from Wolverhampton. Tottenham takes on a Crystal Palace team that sports a mid-tier defense with an expected goals against of 51.2.
Son is 15th in the EPL in shot volume with an on-target accuracy of 48.8%. He is contributing on 35% of Tottenham’s overall scoring and can contribute with crossing volume from open play. Kane is in the top 20 in shot volume and is 42% accurate. He contributes on 32% of Tottenham’s overall scoring and brings brace upside.
Son Heung-Min 2019-2020 stats: 11 goals, 10 assists, 82 shots.
Harry Kane 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 80 shots.
Christian Pulisic (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $16)
Willian (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $19)
Chelsea faces a tough Wolves defense that ranks first in the EPL with an expected goals against of 33.2. They need a win to clinch a spot in the Champions League. Christian Pulisic comes in at a high cost, but the ownership should be overlooked, and he will be looking to step up his game to propel Chelsea. Pulisic has 10 fewer appearances than Willian and contributes on 20% of Chelsea’s overall scoring, while posting 3.8 shots and assisted shots per game. He can add to his totals with open-play crosses and drawn fouls.
Willian is 11th in the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces for Chelsea. He is posting 4.09 shots and assisted shots per game and contributes on 24% of Chelsea’s overall scoring. You can pair either Pulisic or Willian with Olivier Giroud or Tammy Abraham, depending on which one starts the game, for added correlation if Chelsea can break through the Wolves defense.
Christian Pulisic 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 62 shots.
Willian 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 71 shots, 174 crosses.
Raul Jimenez (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $18)
Adama Traore (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $12)
Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $12)
Wolverhampton is in the Europa League with a win. Chelsea’s defense ranks fourth in the EPL with an expected goals against of 37.9 but have been lit up recently. I like the discounted price for the Wolves, and Raul Jimenez is second overall in the EPL in shot volume and sixth in overall scoring.
Adama Traore is top 10 in crossing volume and and fifth in the EPL in drawn fouls. He averages 2.53 shots and assisted shots per game and his upside comes in his contributions of 26% of Wolverhampton’s overall scoring. Joao Moutinho is the set piece man for the Wolves and ranks seventh in the EPL in crossing volume. He brings a high floor and value at his price and averages 2.68 shots and assisted shots per game.
Raul Jimenez 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 117 shots.
Adama Traore 2019-2020 stats: 9 assists, 43 shots, 183 crosses.
Joao Moutinho 2019-2020 stats: 6 assists, 77 assisted shots, 221 crosses.
Jack Grealish (DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $15)
Trezeguet (DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $15)
Aston Villa come into this final day needing a win to avoid relegation. A tie will work if Arsenal does not loose to Watford. Jack Grealish is the set-piece man and does it all for Villa. He leads the EPL in drawn fouls (and it is not even close) and is top 20 in crossing volume. Grealish averages 4.55 shots and assisted shots per game and contributes on 33% of Aston Villa’s overall scoring.
Trezeguet’s recent form looks to help keep Aston Villa in the EPL. The match up is plus against West Ham, with a defense allowing an expected goals against of 62.5. West Ham has been better, but with them clinching EPL status for next season, I think there is an edge in the Aston Villa prices if West Ham rests some of their guys.
Other options: Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $19), Anthony Martial (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $21), Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $16), Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $20), Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $18), Oliver Norwood (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $11), James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $16), Danny Ings (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $18), Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $10,300, FanDuel $22), Troy Deeney (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $16), Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $21)
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Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $15)
Trent Alexander-Arnold leads the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces for Liverpool. With no future games in sight, I expect Liverpool to run its squad and finish the season with a bang. That should not be an issue against a Newcastle team that sports an awful defense with an expected goals against of 57.9. Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Andrew Robertson are all in play on this slate if they start. Alexander-Arnold contributes on 21% of Liverpool’s overall scoring and averages 3.54 shots/assisted shots per game.
Trent Alexander-Arnold 2019-2020 stats: 13 assists, 87 shots assisted, 382 crosses.
Diego Rico (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $12)
Bournemouth is in a must-win situation to hope avoiding relegation but need Aston Villa and Watford to loose as well. Eevrton’s defense ranks mid-tier in the EPL with an expected goals against of 47.5. Rico has missed more than 10 games for Bournemouth on the year but still ranks in the top 15 in crossing volume and takes set piece shares for his club. He can add to his solid floor with interceptions and assisted shots.
Diego Rico 2019-2020 stats: 3 assist, 159 crosses, 81 interceptions.
Matt Doherty (DraftKings $4,100, FanDuel $14)
Jonny (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $11)
Matt Doherty serves as some salary relief in a game were he should be involved pushing up the flank with Traore. He contributes on 14% of Wolverhampton’s overall scoring and can hit value without goal involvement by assisted shots, crossing, won tackles and interceptions.
Jonny comes in at a discounted price point and also can contribute in different ways, heavier on the crossing volume, won tackles, and interceptions. Both defenders do not need much to hit value, but with no clean sheet expectations, I do not see a reason to run them in a line together.
Matt Doherty 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 35 shots, 44 crosses, 40 interceptions.
Jonny 2019-2020 stats: 18 shots, 54 crosses, 55 tackles won, 53 interceptions.
Other Options: Lucas Digne (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $15), Marcos Alonso (DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $13), Serge Aurier (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $15), Benjamin Mendy (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $12), Matt Targett (DraftKings $4,300, FanDuel $13), Cesar Azpilicueta (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $14), Erik Pieters (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $12).