Welcome to EPL DFS for June 29 (6/29/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Crystal Palace (+128) vs. Burnley (+270), O/U 2
The EPL DFS Breakdown
We have a showdown of two closely matched teams in the EPL. Crystal Palace has an expected goals against of 41.1%, Burnley 39.4%. Burnley has the slight edge in offense with an expected goals of 34.6%, compared to Crystal Palace’s 29%. Chris Wood is still out for Burnley, and he accounted for 33% of their overall scoring.
Both squads rank bottom-three in the EPL in overall shot volume. They both get above-average shots per game (Burnley 14, Crystal Palace 13.8), but do not quite have the players to capitalize on all those chances. I expect a low-scoring affair with Crystal Palace edging out Burnley 1-0.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Luka Milivojevic (DraftKings $12,600, FanDuel $13)
In what is expected a tight defensive game, Milivojevic provides a floor with upside at a discounted price. He ranks 16th in the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set piece shares. I expect him to play but if he does not, I would slot Patrick van Aanholt (DraftKings $12,000, FanDuel $10) as a top Captain play for DraftKings. Milivojevic contributes with shots and shot assists. He also allows you to pay up for a few other floor plays to round the lineup without punting.
Luka Miliovjevic 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 26 shots, 128 crosses.
Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $15,900, FanDuel $15)
The alternative floor play is McNeil. On FanDuel where the MVP spot does not cost more salary, McNeil has the advantage over Milivojevic. McNeil is sixth in the EPL in crossing volume and splits the set pieces with Ashley Westwood. Both are expected to be in the game, but the absence of one would increase the value of the other. McNeil is involved in 23% of Burnley’s overall scoring and provides shots and assisted shots in volume.
Dwight McNeil 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 6 assists, 45 shots assisted, 202 crosses.
Other Options: Ashley Westwood (DraftKings $11,400, FanDuel $9), Patrick van Aanholt (DraftKings $12,000, FanDuel $10) (Not MVP able on FanDuel).
Jordan Ayew (DraftKings $10,00, FanDuel $15)
Goals win GPPs and Ayew is the scorer for Crystal Palace. You can choose to slot him as the captain or MVP, but with two solid defenses in action, you are hunting for a brace. He is top-40 in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 47.8%. Ayew contributes on 36% of Crystal Palace’s overall scoring and draws 2.77 fouls per game.
Jordan Ayew 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 47 shots, 83 fouls drawn..
Andros Townsend (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $8)
With Wilfried Zaha expected out, Townsend should get plenty of volume usage. He creates crosses from open play and mixes in drawn fouls and assisted shots. He is less of a sub risk with Zaha out, and would be in line for corner piece shares late in game if van Aanholt or Milivojevic were to sub out.
Andros Townsend 2019-2020 stats: 8 shots assisted, 38 crosses, 17 appearances.
Wayne Hennessey (DraftKings $6,800)/ Nick Pope (DraftKings $5,600)
These two goalkeepers come in dangerous spots. The win equity is not in any of Hennessey nor Nick Pope‘s favor, and a goal in a low-scoring affair would sink the value of one or both. Choosing one is hunting for the shutout win and it comes down to which team you favor. If you favor Crystal Palace to get the win, Hennessey pairs well with Ayew or Milivojevic as the scorer. Pope pairs well with Matej Vydra, Jay Rodriguez or McNeil as the scorer. To their individual skills, Pope averages 3.04 saves a game, while Hennessey averages 5.34 saves a game but has a small sample size in place of injured Vicente Guaita. Going back to last season, Hennessey averaged 2.34 saves a game.
Other Options: Matej Vydra (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $12), Jay Rodriguez (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $14), Joel Ward (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $5), James Tarkowski (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $10), Charlie Taylor (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $6).