Welcome to EPL DFS for July 15 (7/15/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on FanDuel are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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EPL Odds Report
Manchester City (-770) vs. Bournemouth (+1,800), O/U 3.5
Burnley (+360) vs. Wolves (-109), O/U 2.5
Newcastle City (+440) vs. Tottenham (-159), O/U 2.5
Arsenal (+295) vs. Liverpool (-120), O/U 3.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: DraftKings main slate includes three games. FanDuel main slate includes four games and includes the Arsenal vs Liverpool game.
Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $10,100, Fanduel $21)/Gabriel Jesus (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $18)
Raheem Stelring is sixth in the EPL in shot volume with an on-target accuracy of 36%. Gabriel Jesus ranks fourth and hits the net at 47%. Both are a slight discount from Kevin De Bruyne, and while they do not compare in floor, they bring as much upside in a high-scoring affair. Sterling is fifth in overall scoring with 20% goal involvement and Jesus is 15th with 21% goal involvement on the EPL’s top scoring team. I will have plenty of the duo on this slate against a Bournemouth defense that ranks fifth worst in the EPL. If one happens to sit out of the game, a pivot to Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $19) or Phil Foden (DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $14) can free up space to add in De Bruyne or another scoring pair.
Raheem Sterling 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 88 shots, 45 shots assisted.
Gabriel Jesus 2019-2020 stats: 12 goals, 90 shots.
Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $14)/Jay Rodriguez (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $17)
Dwight McNeil ranks fifth in the EPL in crossing volume and shares set pieces with Ashley Westwood. He can contribute with assisted shots, shots and drawn fouls. Jay Rodriguez is in the top 35 in shot volume and is 48% accurate on target. I like either or both because of the volume they can generate at lower cost. The matchup is tough against the Wolves defense that sports the league’s best expected goals against of 31%. Ownership should be low on either of the two, and because of set piece shares, you can even throw Westwood into the mix. If Burnley, which has looked great in form since the return to play, can sneak a goal past the Wolves, it likely will come off the foot of one of these and the pairing allows you to pay up in GPP or one-off them in cash.
Dwight McNeil 2019-2020 stats: 6 assists, 43 shots, 222 crosses.
Jay Rodriguez 2019-2020 stats: 8 goals, 55 shots.
Mohamed Salah (FanDuel $20)/Sadio Mane (FanDuel $17)
Mohamed Salah is the EPL’s overall shot leader and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 44%. Sadio Mane is top 20 in shot volume at 47% accuracy. The duo sits in the top 10 overall scoring leaders and can complement each other with assisted shots and chances created. While Arsenal’s defense is much improved, up to above average in expected goals against at 50.2%, Salah’s and Mane’s volume can overwhelm the young defense. Pivoting down to Roberto Firmino (FanDuel $15) gives you exposure to the offensive attack and frees up just enough space to squeeze in the Manchester City attack.
Mohamed Salah 2019-2020 stats: 19 goals, 59 chances created, 56 shots on goal.
Sadio Mane: 16 goals, 55 chances created, 33 shots on goal.
Other options: Raul Jimenez (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $19), Diogo Jota (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $16), Harry Kane (DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $20), Dwight Gayle (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $15).
Kevin De Bryune (DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $22)
De Bruyne is always in play, sitting second in the EPL in crossing volume and controlling set pieces for Man City. He is third in shot volume and contributes on 32% of Man City’s overall scoring. The issue comes with his price. In cash his floor is higher than most players’ upside, but in GPPs with spread out goal involvement, you can slot in a few other players that in multiple high-scoring games can take down a tournament. He is a hard fade in any format, but you can find leverage in differentiating here.
KDB 2019-2020 stats: 11 goals, 18 assists, 93 shots, 283 crosses.
Allan Saint-Maximin (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $13)/Jonjo Shelvey (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $11)
Allan Saint-Maximin is an explosive winger that can contribute with shots, assisted shots and crosses. He has played a handful of games fewer than his teammates due to injuries, and if he can go, the full game is the concern. Jonjo Shelvey ranks second on Newcastle in crossing volume and top 50 in the EPL while splitting the set pieces with Matt Ritchie (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $10). The matchup comes against a Tottenham defense that is above average with an expected goals against of 49.3%. I like the low ownerships that come with Saint-Maximin and Shelvey and the salary relief to fit in the Man City attack on DraftKings or Liverpool attack on FanDuel. If you have the salary, you can replace either with Ritchie for a higher floor. For shot volume and drawn foul upside, you can pivot to Miguel Almiron (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $12).
Allan Saint-Maximin 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 40 shots, 40 crosses, 23 appearances.
Jonjo Shelvey 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 38 shots, 78 crosses, 23 appearances.
Other Options: Son Hueng-Min (DraftKings $10,700, FanDuel $18), Adama Traore (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $13), Nicolas Pepe (FanDuel $14), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (FanDuel $17), Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $14).
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Serge Aurier (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $15)
Serge Aurier is top 25 in the EPL in crossing volume and does it through open play. The wing back loves to push up the side even at the expense of counter rushes. He adds to his floor with won tackles and interceptions and his upside comes in assisting on goal involvement. The price is high but Newcastle’s defense is the worst on the slate with an expected goals against of 56.2%. You can pair him with the Tottenham front men mentioned above such as Son Hueng-Min or Harry Kane.
Serge Aurier 2019-2020 stats: 5 assists, 63 tackles won, 129 crosses.
Benjamin Mendy (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $10)
Benjamin Mendy gets his volume from open play and is top 50 in crossing volume. He pushes up the left side of the pitch but is less active with defensive stats. Given the price discount from Aurier and expected possession Man City keeps, that still puts Mendy on my radar. Up with the front attack and sided with Sterling and Jesus, Mendy contributes with assisted shots and his upside is in one of those two converting a goal from his deliveries.
Benjamin Mendy 2019-2020 stats: 10 shots, 83 crosses, 18 appearances.
Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (FanDuel $15), Federico Fernandez (DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $14), Erik Pieters (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $12), Neco Williams (FanDuel $7) (FanDuel punt), James Tarkowski (DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $16) (DraftKings punt).