Welcome to EPL DFS for July 16 (7/16/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on FanDuel are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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EPL Odds Report
Everton (+102) vs. Aston Villa (+275), O/U 2.5
Leicester City (-113) vs. Sheffield United (+340), O/U 2.5
Crystal Palace (+1,000) vs. Manchester United (-335), O/U 2.5
Southampton (+120) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (+250), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: DraftKings’ early slate includes two games. FanDuel main slate includes four games and includes the Crystal Palace-Manchester United and Southampton-Brighton games. These two games are on the DraftKings late slate.
Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $22)
Anthony Martial (DraftKings $9,800, FanDuel $20)
Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $19)
Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $16)
On FanDuel all four games are expected to be lower scoring. Manchester United faces a Crystal Palace defense that is six from the bottom of the EPL with an expected goals allowed of 53.69%. Man U’s offense is high volume, sitting fourth with 61.89% expected goals. The scoring can come from a number of Man U’s attacking front. Bruno Fernandez contributes on 23% of their overall scoring and controls the set pieces. Anthony Martial is seventh in the EPL in shots on target, while Marcus Rashford ranks fifth. Mason Greenwood is top 50 for shots on target. Martial and Rashford are tied eighth in overall scoring and Mason Greenwood comes in top 25 mainly from a late surge of production coming on the return to play.
Given the distribution of goals and price, I like taking three of the Man U offensive attack and look to Martial, Rashford and Greenwood. Fernandez will be the more highly owned and is the play in cash. For GPP, goal hunting for a cheaper Greenwood allows you salary for a solid one-off from the other three games. Rashford and Martial are contributing for 36% and 35% of Man U’s overall scoring, and with their ability to complement each other and their playing form, they sit as by core duo.
On DraftKings’ late slate, Man U looks like the offense to target, followed by Southampton. I like running four Man U players on this two-game slate because I do not see many goals in the Southampton-Brighton game. Fernandez is in play and can be fit with Martial or Rashford if leaving one off for Greenwood or pivoting down to Paul Pogba, who comes in $3,000 cheaper and allows you to pay up to some Southampton offense.
Bruno Fernandez 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 7 assists, 25 chances created.
Anthony Martial 2019-2020 stats: 16 goals, 5 assists, 75 shots.
Marcus Rashford 2019-2020 stats: 16 goals, 6 assists, 89 shots.
Mason Greenwood 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 1 assist, 34 shots.
Richarlison (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $18)
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $17)
Aston Villa comes in sporting the EPL’s worst defense, allowing an expected goals against of 69.13%. Richarlison ranks 11th in the EPL in shot volume with on-target accuracy of 37%. Calvert-Lewin is just below at 13th overall and hits the target at 46%. Both of the Everton front men are goal or bust but make pivots to the Man U attack in a better matchup on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, I will have more shares of Calvert-Lewin when looking for exposure to the second game of the early slate. I prefer both, but that is a ceiling GPP play with no floor. Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison fit well with Lucas Digne on the sets and on the early slate that will be my highest-exposed grouping.
Richarlison 2019-2020 stats: 12 goals, 84 shots.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2019-2020 stats: 13 goals, 81 shots.
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $18)
Danny Ings (DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $19)
Nathan Redmond (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $14)
Brighton’s defense is sixth worst in the EPL with an expected goals against of 55.71%. The Southampton attack comes in on DraftKings underpriced. Danny Ings ranks 12th overall in shot volume, while Nathan Redmond is just inside the top 40. Ings accounts for 47% of Southampton’s overall scoring and is third in overall scoring in the EPL. James Ward-Prowse contributes on 18% of his team’s goal involvement and controls the set pieces.
In cash games I prefer Ward-Prowse due to his floor with crosses on DraftKings. He currently is fourth in the EPL in crossing volume. On FanDuel his floor is safe with chances created, clears and drawn fouls, but the price is right up there with Man U and Everton attacks and serves as more of a GPP pivot.
On both sites I like Redmond, mainly on salary relief but also his shot volume and created chances from open play. He has played a handful of games fewer than Ings and Ward-Prowse and still is cracking the team leaderboard in a plus matchup.
James Ward-Prowse 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 51 shots, 236 crosses.
Danny Ings 2019-2020 stats: 19 goals, 83 shots.
Nathan Redmond 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 54 shots, 33 shots assisted.
Other options: Leandro Trossard (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $13), Oliver Norwood (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $13) Jordan Ayew (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $16), Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $9,700, FanDuel $21), Anwar El Ghazi (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $11), Kelechi Iheanacho (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $17), Jack Grealish (DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $16).
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Lucas Digne (DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $15)
Lucas Digne is third in the EPL in crossing volume and shares set pieces. With or without Gylfi Sigurdsson I will play Digne because he can get the crossing volume through open play. If Sigurdsson is out, Digne is a lock for me, and the price should keep his ownership down. On FanDuel he is hard to get to because of the Man U offense price tags. On DraftKings he is easy to fit in even with exposure to his teammates up top.
Lucas Digne 2019-2020 stats: 7 assists, 69 shots assisted, 253 crosses.
Enda Stevens (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $12)
George Baldock (DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $10)
Enda Stevens and George Baldock share top-30 ranking in the EPL for crossing volume. They are two wingbacks that play more of a midfield role in Sheffield United’s five-defender set. Stevens accounts for 16% of Sheffield’s overall scoring while Baldock contributes on 14%. I do not like to play them together because I think the usage of one cannibalizes the usage of the other, but it is a unique strategy for GPPs on FanDuel. On DraftKings where they come on a two-gamer, it is a solid approach to pair them with the floor and clean sheet possibility for both.
Pairing them with Dean Henderson and/or Oliver Norwood gives you exposure to the Sheffield offense and defense if they can upset the EPL’s fifth-ranked offense in Leicester City.
Enda Stevens 2019-2020 stats: 4 assists, 19 shots, 113 crosses.
George Baldock 2019-2020 stats: 3 assists, 20 shots assisted, 123 crosses.
Other Options: Matt Targett (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $11), Tariq Lamptey (DraftKings $3,100, FanDuel $9), Michael Keane (DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $13), Patrick van Aanholt (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $14) (FanDuel punt), Ryan Bertrand (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $11), Jan Bednarek (DraftKings $2,800, FanDuel $14).