Welcome to EPL DFS for Sept. 12 (9/12/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
Crystal Palace (+215) vs. Southampton (+143), O/U 2.5
Liverpool (-385) vs. Leeds United (+950), O/U 3.5
West Ham (+115) vs. Newcastle United (+240), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $10,300, FanDuel $23)
Sadio Mane (DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $21)
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $18)
It is believed Leeds United will have success in the EPL, wth crowd backing and a budget to make the right moves, including one already made to acquire Rodrigo Moreno. Unfortunately that day is not today, and Liverpool will be searching for another EPL title, which will require not overlooking promoted teams considering the improved teams behind them looking to challenge. Leeds United come into the season allowing less than a goal a game in the previous campaign. That was in a second-tier league, and Liverpool should find the back of the net as the EPL’s second-best club in expected goals from a season ago.
Mohamed Salah comes at a high price, but he cannot be avoided on a small three gamer. He led the EPL with 3.83 shots per game last season at an accuracy clip of 43%, and he finished fifth in the Golden Boot race. He has a 35% contribution rate on Liverpool’s overall scoring and can add to his floor with crosses and 1.8 chances created per game.
Sadio Mane is a great compliment to Salah and has no issues firing away on his own. He ranked top 20 in the EPL last campaign with 2.18 shots per game and found the target 47% of the time. Mane contributes on 31% of Liverpool’s overall scoring and finished tied seventh in the EPL in scoring.
Roberto Firmino had a run to forget during the 2019-20 campaign. His price is down and he is scoring dependent. I like him as cheaper exposure to the Liverpool offensive attack, which allows you to fit in one of Mane or Salah and a player to be named down the article. Firmino contributed on 21% of the club’s overall scoring and ranked fourth overall in shot volume with an accuracy clip of 37%.
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $16)
Nathan Redmond (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $13)
Danny Ings (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $19)
James Ward-Prowse comes in following a season where he ranked fourth overall in crossing volume and still looks to be the set piece man for Southampton. He does not do much in the way of scoring but offers one of the highest floors and adds to it with 3.93 tackles and interceptions per game, 1.64 assisted shots per game and 1.50 shots per game with 46% accuracy.
Nathan Redmond provides a GPP pivot with low ownership given the price. He is a creator on the wing who contributed on 16% of Southampton’s overall scoring. He played a handful of games less than the club’s leaders last season and brings a solid floor with 1.85 shots per game, 1.32 chances created, 2.25 tackles and interceptions per game and a drawn foul per game.
Danny Ings is the club’s offensive leader contributing on 47% of their overall scoring. He ranked top 10 in the EPL in shot volume and tied second overall in goals. Even on a three-gamer, his price should keep ownership low. He is goal dependent but a solid pivot down from Mane or Salah to fit the other and add a few upgrades along the way. Ings brings brace upside to any match but comes with low-floor risk.
Michail Antonio (DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $20)
Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $14)
Callum Wilson (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $16)
Michail Antonio had a fantastic finish for West Ham last season and gets a great matchup against a Newcastle side that finished fourth worst in expected goals against at 58.5. He finished top 30 in the EPL in shot volume at 2.84 per game with 46% on target accuracy. His goals were back loaded, but given the short layoff coming into this new season, I like his form to continue. Antonio is a hard man to pull down and can add to his floor with over two fouls drawn per game.
Jarrod Bowen has taken over on the sets for West Ham and brings a high floor to the table. He averages 4.62 crosses per game, three shots and assisted shots per game, and his upside comes in his goal connection with Antonio.
Coming back on the other side of the match, we have the newly acquired Callum Wilson from Bournemouth. There could be an adjustment period for Wilson, but he was putting up shot volume on a now-relegated Bournemouth team and has the offensive help on Newcastle to get him the opportunities. He pairs well with Jonjo Shelvey, Matt Ritchie or Allan Saint-Maximin.
Other options: Rodrigo Moreno (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $15), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $17), Jordan Ayew (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $18), Andros Townsend (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $8), Pablo Hernandez (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $13).
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $16)
Trent Alexander-Arnold led the EPL in crossing volume last season and controls the set pieces for Liverpool. His price is sky high, as will be his ownership, but I cannot avoid him. He has the favorable matchup, a floor slightly above Ward-Prowse’s and a high ceiling. He contributed on 21% of Liverpool’s overall scoring, takes chances at the net, averages 2.74 tackles and interceptions per game and shares direct free kicks with Salah.
Barry Douglas (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $6)
We need to look for value, and Barry Douglas should provide answers. There is concern regarding possession and his lack of offensive production, even at the second-tier level. He was limited in action last season but managed over three crosses per game, and going back to the previous years, he is the volume man for Leeds. The matchup against Liverpool’s top-three-ranked defense is factored into the price, and I like the safety of his 4.52 crossing volume when healthy and 5.98 per game two years ago when he helped the Wolves get promoted to the EPL.
Other Options: Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $14), Ryan Bertrand (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $11), Emil Krafth (DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $6), Javier Manquillo (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $7), Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $13)
Lukasz Fabianski (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $12)
Kiko Casilla (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $7)
Alex McCarthy (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $9)
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