Welcome to EPL DFS for July 15 (7/15/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Arsenal (+300) vs. Liverpool (-122), O/U 3
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have we have Arsenal taking on Liverpool. Arsenal is seventh in the EPL in expected goals at 46%, while Liverpool trails only Manchester City atop the table at 66%. Defensively Liverpool ranks fifth in the EPL allowing an expected goals against of 37.6%. Arsenal’s defense ranks mid tier allowing 50.2%. In terms of shot volume, Liverpool ranks third in the EPL and Arsenal seventh from the bottom of the table. The only thing to play for when these EPL giants collide is pride, and that should be enough to run out the starters looking to finish the season strong. I like Liverpool 2-1 in this game.
In this showdown you could make a case for either goalkeeper on DraftKings. Both these teams are top four in the EPL in on-target accuracy despite the volume discrepancy. Alison comes in at $7,400, but has the expected win. I do not see this game ending with a shutout victory, so I will come underweight on him, though I do see him making three or four saves and getting the win. Emiliano Martinez comes in at $5,200, and I am more interested in his value even with an expected loss. He has been a very good keeper, but his team will allow Liverpool to fire away. Even with two goals allowed, five or six saves makes him an interesting punt. The upside to both come in common 1-0 or 0-0 box scores.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $16,500, FanDuel $16)
Mohamed Salah is a man on a mission to find the back of the net, averaging 4.8 shots per game across his last five. The three goals is actually disappointing because he failed to connect on what should have been two or three more at least. The volume is there and so are the assisted shots, coming in at 2.4 per game across the same span. You are getting the EPL leader in shot volume at a low Captain price and I like him given ownership expected to be divided among Trent Alexander-Arnold, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sadio Mane.
Mohamed Salah 2019-2020 stats: 19 goals, 9 assists, 122 crosses.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $10)
The safest floor on this slate belongs to Alexander-Arnold, who leads the EPL in crossing volume and controls Liverpool’s set pieces. On FanDuel he is the top defender option. Alexander-Arnold leads Liverpool in assisted shots and is top four in scoring chances created in the EPL. He should come in as the highest-owned Captain given the low price and pay-up ability to Liverpool’s offensive attack in the Flex, but he is a hard fade at the position.
Trent Alexander-Arnold 2019-2020 stats: 12 assists, 82 shots assisted, 364 crosses.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $15,300, FanDuel $14)
Time is running out for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to catch Jamie Vardy in the Golden Boot race. In saying that, I point out that Salah is looking to jump in at the finish as well. Aubameyang hits the target 44% of the time and is seventh in the EPL in shot volume. The candidate to lead an Arsenal upset, should come in as the lowest-owned Captain between the most exposed on the slate. He also comes with a decent floor built through cross volume, shot volume and assisted shots.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2019-2020 stats: 20 goals, 87 shots, 84 crosses.
Other Options: Sadio Mane (DraftKings $14,700, FanDuel $15).
Nicolas Pepe (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $10)
Nicolas Pepe contributes on 22% of Arsenal’s overall scoring and controls set piece shares for the club. He is in the top 35 in crossing volume and provides a solid floor. If he plays, he is top Flex option even as the one off in a Liverpool stack. If Pepe sits, I would expect Bukayo Saka (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $7) to take his place on the right wing of the attack. Saka would be the top option without Pepe given his open-play crossing volume, drawn fouls and chance creation.
Nicolas Pepe 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 6 assists, 102 crosses.
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $11)
Roberto Firmino only has two more chances to disappoint me. The goal drought continues, but the chances are still there. He is actually building a floor now of missed goals and assisted misses. Still sitting top four in the EPL in shot volume and with a low enough price, he will be one of my over-owned Flex picks.
Roberto Firmino 2019-2020 stats: 8 goals, 7 assists, 98 shots.
Cedric Soares (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $6)
I expect Soares to return for this match. He has been active for Arsenal in limited appearances with 3.16 crosses and 1.11 shot or assisted shot per game. He can add to his value with won tackles and interceptions, and he provides a solid one-off or two-man play with Saka that still allows you to pay up for Liverpool’s big guns.
Other Options: Dani Ceballos (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $8), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $8), Fabinho (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $6).