Welcome to EPL DFS for July 20 (7/20/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Wolverhampton (-220) vs. Crystal Palace (+750), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have a Wolverhampton team trying to regain Europa League qualifications against a depleted Crystal Palace team that suit up for the spoilers role. The Wolves sport the best defense in the EPL with an expected goals against of 32.8. Crystal Palace’d defense is fairly solid with an expected goals against of 49.9 but could be missing a few key pieces. Offensively both of these teams are pretty bad. The Wolves are mid-tier with an expected goals for of 46 while Crystal Palace is second to last with an expected goals for of 34.1. Given the importance of the game to the Wolves, and their better offense, I give them the win 2-0.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Adama Traore (DraftKings $15,300, FanDuel $11)
Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $12,000, FanDuel $9)
Adama Traore ranks top 10 in the EPL in crossing volume and does it through open play. He can contribute with shots and assisted shots, averaging 2.49 per game, and he draws fouls in high volume. He does not need scoring to provide a floor and the upside is in his 27% contribution to Wolverhampton’s overall scoring.
Joao Moutinho ranks just above Traore in crossing volume and controls set pieces for the Wolves. Moutinho can contribute with won tackles, interceptions and high-volume assisted shots. Moutinho provides the safer floor to Traore and comes at a discount. The risk is if Moutinho is not involved in the scoring and the Wolves put up two or three concentrated goals, his floor will not be enough at the Captain spot. The advantage is his salary allowing for slotting in Traore and Raul Jimenez at the flex.
Adama Traore 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 41 shots, 175 crosses.
Joao Moutinho 2019-2020 stats: 6 assists, 76 assisted shots, 216 crosses.
Diogo Jota (DraftKings $13,200, FanDuel $14)
Raul Jimenez (DraftKings $17,100, FanDuel $16)
Diogo Jota ranks top 25 in the EPL in shot volume. He can draw fouls and assist on shots, but his main upside is in scoring. The volume is there and the accuracy on target is 37%. He will garner little to no ownership for an MME tournament, and you do not need a lot of shares to gain leverage. This is strictly a MME play with no floor. The more sensible goal scorer is Jimenez.
Jimenez is second in the EPL in shot volume and fifth in overall scoring. He is the PK man for Wolverhampton and is scoring every two games. My concern is the price, which would require you to leave out a Traore, Moutinho and/or Jonny from your Flex. I think the price will keep Jimenez’s ownership down and he brings brace upside to each slate.
Diogo Jota 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 68 shots.
Raul Jimenez 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 114 shots.
Other Options: Jordan Ayew (DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $14)
James McArthur (DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $8)
James McArthur makes a solid one-off from Crystal Palace. If Luka Milijovic is out, I think McArthur can see some free kicks since Patrick van Aanholt is also out. Regardless of set piece usage or not, McArthur can hit value with his contributions of shots, assisted shots, crosses, tackles won and interceptions.
Rui Patricio (DraftKings $8,600)
I always come back to the goalie position in low-scoring affairs. Rui Patricio is an outstanding keeper and his 12 clean sheets on the year are not for a lack of shot volume. The price is high and so is the risk if he lets in a goal, but I am not going to overthink it. I expect the price will drive away some ownership, which makes me like the risk/reward more. I do not see the Wolves putting up more than two goals in this game.
Other Options: Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $13), Jonny (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $7), Andros Townsend (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $7), Matt Doherty (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $9), Joel Ward (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $8).