Welcome to EPL DFS for July 19 (7/19/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Manchester United (+160) vs. Chelsea (+175), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have an FA Cup clash between Chelsea and Manchester United. Chelsea’s defense ranks fourth in the EPL with an expected goals allowed of 36.5%, while Man U is third in overall defense. Offensively Chelsea is third in the EPL with an expected goals for of 64.6%. Manchester United is fifth with an expected goals for of 57.1%. I expect this game to end in a draw 2-2.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $15,600)
Willian (DraftKings $15,300)
Bruno Fernandez is the set piece and PK man for Man U. Willian assumes the same role for Chelsea. Fernandez averages over a goal/assist per game, over three shots per game and over five crosses per game. Willian ranks 12th in the EPL in crossing volume and 25th in shot volume. In this close matchup, it will come down to who you think can earn the extra goal involvement. Both Fernandez and Willian have multi-point upside and their prices are some of the cheapest we will ever see on them at the Captain spot. It is hard to fit the attack of each team if you go both in a lineup unless putting them both in Flex. The route I will be going is to fit them both in the Flex because I cannot separate which one is the better play.
Bruno Fernandez 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 7 assists, 68 crosses.
Willian 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 66 shots, 173 crosses.
Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $14,400)
Anthony Martial (DraftKings $13,800)
Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial share top-20 spots in the EPL in shot volume and top 10 in overall scoring. I like the pair that combine for over 60% goal involvement of Man U’s overall scoring, and you can find a way to fit them with Fernandez or Willian for a solid core.
Marcus Rashford 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 81 shots.
Anthony Martial 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 75 shots.
Cesar Azpilicueta (DraftKings $8,100)
Marcos Alonso (DraftKings $9,600)
Any of Cesar Azpilicueta, Marcos Alonso or Reece James are viable because of the roles they play. I am going to assume that Alonso and Azpilicueta will man the wingback positions given the importance of the match. Azpilicueta brings crossing volume and goal-involvement upside. Alonso brings the higher volume of crosses and shots than Azpilicueta, and the price makes either one a solid Captain play for paying up to both attacking sides. If either sit out, James becomes viable as he is also in the top 35 in crossing volume.
Other Options: Christian Pulisic (DraftKings $12,600)
Olivier Giroud (DraftKings $7,400)
Tammy Abraham (DraftKings $7,200)
Tammy Abraham ranks top-10 in the EPL in shot volume. He has struggled in recent form to find the back of the net, and his value comes from scoring. Olivier Giroud has been trending in the opposite direction and seems to score each game now. The risk for placing any of the two in the Captain spot for me is always substitution risk. If they game is going poorly, Frank Lampard will bring in one for the other to spark the offense.
Tammy Abraham 2019-2020 stats: 14 goals, 85 shots.
Olivier Giroud 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 35 shots.
David de Gea (DraftKings $6,400)
I do not think David de Gea can keep a clean sheet, but he should see volume and his recent games have been solid. I do not expect this to be a high-scoring game, and if Man U are able to win the game de Gea can still bring value to the prize with three or four saves and a win. The same could be said about Kepa Arrizabalaga, but I have less faith in him as an actual keeper than I do de Gea.
Other Options: Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $8,800), Luke Shaw (DraftKings $6,400), Ross Barkley (DraftKings $6,800), Paul Pogba (DraftKings $8,000)