Welcome to EPL DFS for June 27 (6/27/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Aston Villa (+380) vs. Wolverhampton (-132), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
We have a showdown between the EPL’s top defense, Wolverhampton, which allows 28.3% expected goals against, taking on the EPL’s worst defense. Aston Villa which allows 59.6% expected goals against. The Wolves offense ranks mid-tier with an expected goals against of 40.6%. Wolverhampton need this win to keep pace in the Champions league race and too not fall out of Europa league qualifications.
Both teams have a slow build up and rank mid tier in shot volume. Aston Villa ranks mid-tier in shot accuracy, while the Wolves rank near the bottom. I expect this game to be a lot closer than at first glance and look for this game to be very low scoring. I expect Wolves to edge out Aston Villa 1-0.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Adama Traore/ Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $15,900)/ (DraftKings $12,900)
If Traore sits out of this game, Moutinho is the go-to man for crossing volume and shot assists. With Traore on the field, Moutinho’s production seems to get hindered. Traore ranks 10tn the EPL in overall crossing and accumulates them from open play. Moutinho ranks seventh in the EPL in cross volume and accumulates most by way of corner set pieces. Moutinho comes at a significant price discount and contributes on 17% of Wolverhampton’s overall scoring. Traore is the second-highest Captain and contributes on 31% of the Wolves overall scoring.
Adama Traore 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 9 assists, 154 crosses.
Joao Moutinho 2019-2020 stats: 6 assists, 66 shots assisted, 199 crosses.
Jack Grealish (DraftKings $15,300)
Grealish is the set piece man for Aston Villa. He has a solid floor and ranks top-25 in the EPL in crossing volume. He contributes on 37% of Aston Villa’s overall scoring and would be the likely hero if Aston Villa where to come away with a win. Grealish adds to his upside with shot volume where he sits top-30 in the EPL and fouls drawn.
Jack Grealish 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 6 assists, 55 shots, 111 crosses.
Other Options: Raul Jimenez (DraftKings $17,100)
Anwar El Ghazi (DraftKings $6,800)
El Ghazi Makes for a solid pairing with Grealish or a one off in a Wolves-favored stack. He ranks top-35 in shot volume at hits the target at an accuracy clip of 38.3%. He ranks top-30 in the EPL in cross volume, which stems form open play.
Anwar El Ghazi 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 4 assists, 97 crosses.
Matt Targett (DraftKings $5,800)
Targett ranks top-45 in the EPL in cross volume. He can build his floor through interceptions and assisted shots. Targett does not really provide any upside, but he is consistent and the salary is low enough.
Matt Targett 2019-2020 stats: 25 shots assisted, 75 crosses, 51 interceptions.
Diogo Jota (DraftKings $9,400)
Jota sits top-25 in the EPL in shot volume. He can contribute in a number of categories such as fouls drawn, crosses and assisted shots. The price seems high and you really would be hoping for a Wolves two- or three-goal game for him to out perform Jimenez, Traore or Moutinho. Slotting Jota in place of one of those makes the lineup more balanced and does not force punting on the Aston Villa side.
Diogo Jota 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 61 shots, 51 fouls drawn.
Other Options: Rui Patricio (DraftKings $7,600), Matt Doherty (DraftKings $7,200), John McGinn (DraftKings $5,000), Conor Hourihane (DraftKings $8,200), Ruben Neves (DraftKings $4,000) (Cheap punt for a Wolves heavy stack).