Mane or Salah: EPL DFS | DraftKings $20K to First Showdown | July 8

Welcome to EPL DFS for July 8 (7/8/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.

Other English Premier League DFS content this week:

EPL Odds Report

Brighton & Hove Albion (+525) vs. Liverpool (-186), O/U 2.5

The EPL DFS Breakdown

In this showdown we have Brighton, whose defense ranks above average, taking on the fifth-ranked defense in the EPL for Liverpool. Offensively Liverpool ranks second overall in the EPL with an expected goals for of 62%. Brighton is below average with an expected goals for of 37.4%. If you look at Liverpool’s poor performances since the break, it has been against sound defenses in Manchester City and Everton, two teams that also have active offenses. Brighton likes to sit back and absorb pressure then counter a few times because their defense gives up above-average goals in the EPL on counter attacks and set pieces.

Liverpool plays the second least amount of action in the EPL in their own third of the pitch and Brighton ranks average in action on their opponents third. Giving Liverpool so many chances should allow them to break through and I like Liverpool to take this game 3-0.

These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.

Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.


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Captain Picks

Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $17,100, FanDuel $16)

Salah comes with a high price tag. He ranks first overall in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 41.5%. He ranks top five in overall scoring and can contribute with chances created and crossing volume. On DraftKings his ownership will be shared with Sadio Mane and Trent Alexander-Arnold. All three are viable, and in MME it is wise to split the three across the board. On FanDuel the share of him and Sadio Mane will be almost even given the price range.

Mohamed Salah 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 108 shots, 54 shots assisted.

Sadio Mane (DraftKings $16,200, FanDuel $15)

Mane is an alternative option to Salah at the Captain spot for a slight discount. He ranks top 25 in shot volume and shoots with 48.4% accuracy. I prefer Mane at the position over Salah because it allows an extra offensive threat in the flex position or a pay up to Alisson, which would secure you the bonus points if you think Liverpool is halted at two goals. Mane is sixth in the EPL in overall scoring and, like Salah, can contribute in the goal involvement with assists. I cannot see a scenario where I do not roster both of them.

Sadio Mane 2019-2020 stats: 16 goals, 65 shots, 49 shots assisted.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $14,700, FanDuel $11)

On FanDuel Alexander-Arnold is the top defender play and the price is low enough to get there. He ranks first in the EPL in crossing volume and dominates the set pieces for Liverpool. I expect him to start, but in the case he does not, the set pieces should flow to Salah and Andrew Robertson. If this is the case, Robertson replaces Alexander-Arnold as top defender and third Captain option. Alexander-Arnold can contribute through shots volume and assisted shots.

TAA 2019-2020 stats: 12 asissts, 79 shots assisted, 347 crosses.


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Flex Picks

Aaron Mooy (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $9)

If Pascal Gross continues to fall out of favor with his manager, Aaron Mooy will take control of the set pieces. His floor is safe and he does not need goals to hit value. If Gross returns, I do not like Mooy, but Gross is hard to pay up for so I prefer to punt the Brighton one off in a Liverpool stack. Mooy is a solid play in a 4-2 format or a Brighton contrarian stack.

Aaron Mooy 2019-2020 stats: 32 shots, 37 shots assisted, 104 crosses, 26 appearances.

Leandro Trossard (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $9)

Trossard ranks top 50 in the EPL in crossing volume and does it through open play. He serves as a discount from Mooy, without the floor, or a 4-2 pairing. If Maupay is in, I can get to some Brighton hedge stacks, but if he is not, volume for Trossard and pushing up chances should increase.

Leandro Trossard 2019-2020 stats: 30 shots, 38 shots assisted, 70 crosses.

Alisson (DraftKings $8,200)/Mat Ryan (DraftKings $4,400)

Imagine if a dual goalkeeper takes down a GPP. Seems rare, right? Alisson is in line to secure a win and clean sheet. He is essential to a Liverpool stack if they cannot manage three goals spread out with contribution. I do not expect he will see shot volume and he averages 2.21 saves per game. The risk with his price tag is any goal, even an own goal, and he will fall way below value. Mat Ryan averages 3.13 saves per game and should see volume. Even allowing two goals to Liverpool, Ryan would not need the win or clean sheet to hit value. The risk in playing goalkeepers remains high, so do not over expose.

Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $9)

Roberto Firmino ranks third in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 37.6%. His price continues to fall as his drought continues. He contributes on 21% of Liverpool’s overall scoring and could go overlooked due to recent performances. I like him as a GPP option for a more balanced build and a way to get involved in the offense if choosing to leave off Salah or Mane from the line up.

Roberto Firmino 2019-2020 stats: 8 goals, 7 assists, 92 shots, 41 shots asissted.

Other Options: Neal Maupay (DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $11), Alexis Mac Allister (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $6), Pascal Gross (DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $8), Aaron Connolly (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $12), Lewis Dunk (DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $8)

Related EPL Content

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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