Welcome to EPL DFS for June 30 (6/30/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
Brighton (+575) vs. Manchester United (-180), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown, we have the third-best defense in Manchester United taking on a middle-of-the-pack Brighton. Brighton is trying to keep separation from relegation. Manchester United looks to gain ground on in-form Wolverhampton and Chelsea teams for the final Europa League and Champions League spots. The importance of this game for both teams leads me to expect the full starters deployed.
Manchester United is clearly the better team and will garner ownership, but Brighton’s defense style could keep the game low-scoring. The gap in offense, which sees Manchester United sitting fifth overall, should be the difference. I expect Manchester to take this game 2-0.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $15,900, FanDuel $14)
The ownership hype will likely be spread out between Bruno Fernandez and Anthony Martial. If Paul Pogba is in the lineup, Fernandez seems hindered by touches. This sample size is small, but two creators in the mid often cannibalize each other. Rashford has not had too much success in recent form, but this spot could change that and he comes in slightly below Martial and at a discount from Fernandez. Rashford sits top-20 in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 43.5%. He is eighth in overall scoring and can create chances for shots and crosses from open play.
Marcus Rashford 2019-2020 stats: 14 goals, 69 shots, 6 assists.
Anthony Martial (DraftKings $16,800, FanDuel $16)
Anthony Martial can bust open a slate at any given time. He ranks top-20 in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 49.2%. While I prefer Rashford, multiple lineups will have me with plenty of Martial shares as well. He is goal or bust and brings multi-goal upside each time he is on the field. The sit-back style of Brighton’s defense to me opens up outside shots which could limit Martial’s chances. If Captaining Martial, I am counting on his accurate touch taking advantage of the limited opportunists and finding the back of the net.
Anthony Martial 2019-2020 stats: 14 goals, 3 assists, 66 shots.
Alexis Mac Allister (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $7)
With Pascal Gross expected out, the time for Mac Allister is now. The matchup is terrible but the ownership advantage will be there. Mac Allister, in limited sample, is taking shares of set pieces and producing a solid volume of crosses. The team is high on him and the usage could increase without Gross. If Gross is in, Mac Allister falls to a top Flex option. Even in a game where Manchester United nets one, or Brighton manages a draw, Mac Allister has the ability to lead any lineup.
Neal Maupay (DraftKings $12,600, FanDuel $12)
If I am running just one lineup, Maupay is my Captain. Rashford and Martial are the better plays, but Maupay is the scoring threat that provides leverage. Stranger things have happened. Maupay is fifth in the EPL in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 38.8%. He ranks top-20 in overall scoring.
Neal Maupay 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 85 shots.
Other Options: Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $18,000, FanDuel $14).
Aaron Mooy (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $9)
Mooy is a solid play with Gross out. If Gross is in, Mooy falls off my radar in limited lineups. He is top-30 in the EPL in cross volume and contributes with assisted shots and won tackles. He serves as a complement in a Brighton-favored stack. Mooy also is on set piece shares with Gross out.
Aaron Mooy 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 34 shots assisted, 97 crosses.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $10)
Wan-Bissaka sits top-40 in the EPL in crossing volume. He builds to his floor with tackles won and interceptions. He doesn’t need scoring to pay off his price and is in line for a clean sheet bonus against an average offense with his teams stellar defense. Wan-Bissaka serves the defender spot on FanDuel.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka 2019-2020 stats: 84 crosses, 69 tackles won, 55 interceptions.
David de Gea (DraftKings $7,800)
De Gea won’t go overlooked. His ownership will hover in the 40% range. He has the expected win and clean sheet. If you fade him, you are really searching for a Manchester United blowout with spread scoring or for Brighton to net one. De Gea averages 2.55 saves per game and Manchester United allows the fourth-fewest shots per game. De Gea needs these shots on target to pay off the price because win and clean sheet alone is low upside.
Other Options: Mat Ryan (DraftKings $4,600), Leandro Trossard (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $5), Paul Pogba (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $11), Solly March (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $6), Lewis Dunk (DraftKings $4,200, FanDuel $8)