Mahrez or Sterling: EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel | 10/3

Welcome to EPL DFS for Oct. 3. Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.


Related EPL DFS Content


EPL Odds Report

Everton (-134) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (+390), O/U 2.5

Leeds United (+700) vs. Manchester City (-275), O/U 3.5

Newcastle United (+145) vs. Burnley (+210), O/U 2.5

The EPL DFS Breakdown

These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside. FanDuel main slate includes the Newcastle vs. Burnley game. DraftKings main slate does not.

Forward/Midfield Picks

Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings $9,800 FanDuel $22)

Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $9,200 FanDuel $20)

Anytime Kevin De Bruyne is on the slate he is the chalk play. Not much much to say except if you are getting away from him in a GPP, make sure you still get pieces around him. Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling should have plenty of looks as Manchester City look for a bounce-back performance. Last Season Mahrez averaged 2.22 shots per game, with an on target accuracy clip of 41%. He finished second on the club to De Bruyne in crossing volume and finds himself with some corner sets shares. With 4.16 scoring chances created per game and 20% goal contribution on the club’s overall scoring, I like his floor for all formats.

Sterling finished top six in the EPL in shot volume a year ago and has been off to a slow start. With no goals in the young season and virtually no floor, his price should keep him low owned even on a two game slate. I like this game in general for a high-scoring affair and the cash plays will be some mix of De Bryune and Mahrez. In a GPP stack, you probably have a Phil Foden or Ferren Torres thrown in for a salary relief. Switching Sterling in place of Mahrez or De Bryune will make you lineups different, and last season’s 20-goal scorer has a plus matchup against a Leeds United squad allowing an expected goals against of 6.7.

Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $17)

Kalvin Phillips (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $12)

On the flip side of the Manchester City – Leeds United game, we have Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips. Both players come in with cheaper tags due to the matchup. I do not think Manchester’s defense is that imposing and Leeds has been trading blows since the return to the EPL with all teams. Bamford is reliant on goal scoring, so the risk is high, but not compared to a Raheem Sterling or Dominic Calvert-Lewin who carry significantly higher tags. He led the club in scoring a season ago and shot volume of 3.36 per game, placing 39.7% on target.

Kalvin Phillips is way too cheap. His floor is safe with his crossing numbers continuing to hoover over 5.93 per game carrying to this EPL season. You won’t get a lot of attempts at goal from him but he adds to his value with a tackles won and interception average of three per game.

Tariq Lamptey (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $13)

Tariq Lamptey’s price has risen, but his floor is still there. He plays up and down the wing and can do a lot for Brighton, regardless to whether they score or not. Last year he averaged just over two fouls drawn per game and tackles won and interceptions. The trend has continued on his full time starting role in the EPL this year so far. On FanDuel he is a solid option at the defender spot.

Other Options: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $20), Callum Wilson (FanDuel $18), James Rodriguez (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $17), Chris Wood (FanDuel $16), Neal Maupay (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $16), Leandro Trossard (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $15), Richarlison (DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $19).

Defender Picks

Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $4,100 FanDuel $10)

Stuart Dallas’ price seems too cheap. He can cross the ball and create chances from open play. He is not shy to push up and take chances, averaging 1.72 shots per game a season ago, and has taken an attempt in as many games in this young season. His crosses offer upside, but his floor should be safe with Tackles won and Interception opportunities against Manchester City. He averaged 2.74 tackles won and interceptions a year ago, and has had it bumped to 4.34 per game so far on Leeds EPL run.

Benjamin Mendy (DraftKings $4,400 FanDuel $12)

Benjamin Mendy offers offensive upside from the wingback position, at sub $5,000. Last season in the EPL he averaged 4.53 crosses from open play a game. He doesn’t do much in the way of defense, for DraftKings stats, but on FanDuel his clears average of 2.39 per game makes him a solid play as well. With a few shots or assisted shots he can provide upside and the match up is right for him to get going.

Other Options: Lucas Digne (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $15), Yerry Mina (DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $9), Charlie Taylor (FanDuel $8), Jamal Lewis (FanDuel $8), Kyle Walker (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $11).

Goalkeeper Picks

Jordan Pickford (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $12)

Mat Ryan (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $8)


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Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo EPL home page, just click HERE.

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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