Willian or Bruno Fernandez: EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel | 9/19

Welcome to EPL DFS for Sept. 19 (9/19/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.


Related EPL DFS Content


EPL Odds Report

Leeds United (-165) vs. Fulham (+480), O/U 2.5

Manchester United (-335) vs. Crystal Palace (+850), O/U 2.5

Arsenal (-190) vs. West Ham (+480), O/U 2.5

The EPL DFS Breakdown

These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.

Forward/Midfield Picks

Willian (DraftKings $10,500 FanDuel $19)

Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $11,000 FanDuel $18)

Arsenal and Manchester United are in two prime spots. Arsenal takes on West Ham United, who allowed the second-most expected goals in the EPL a season ago at 61.9, coming off a poor showing against Newcastle. Manchester United take on a Crystal Palace team that ranked mid-tier in expected goals allowed with 51, and they managed a win against Southampton. It is crucial to get as much exposure to both Arsenal and Manchester United’s offense, but the issue is the prices.

Willian paid dividends early for his new club and comes off a resurgent year for Chelsea. He ranked 12th in the EPL last season in crossing volume and took majority set pieces and penalties for his club. He averaged 1.87 shots per game, 4.03 scoring chances created and was involved in 24% of Chelsea’s overall scoring. His role has not changed much on Arsenal, with the exception of penalty duties. I like Arsenal to replicate their offensive onslaught of shot volume in this match, and that spells huge upside for Willian to complement his safe floor.

Bruno Fernandez comes in underpriced on FanDuel for all he does for Manchester United. He is the crossing volume leader for the club and controls all set pieces. He played in just a handful of games for the club last season and averaged 2.86 shots per game, hitting the target 35% of the time. His floor is safe with his 5.36 crosses per game, 2.15 scoring chances created per game and 23% goal involvement.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $10,200 FanDuel $22)

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang needs goals to hit value on this price tag, but he comes with brace upside and the addition of Willian should give him more space. Aubameyang ranked ninth in the EPL in shot volume and finished second in total scoring. He has already began his new run to the Golden Boot race and fitting that Jamie Vardy has started the campaign by one upping him. He can add to his value with 2.34 crosses per game and assist upside, but at this price it comes down to goal or bust.

Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $16)

Jack Harrison (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $14)

We will need to free up space to fit in the high-priced three up top. Mason Greenwood has a year under his belt playing with this Manchester side and has looked impressive. With the scoring spread around, his upside is involvement in the overall scoring, which he produced at 17% last year. His ownership will be overshadowed by Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial and for good reason. The prices on the other two attacking front line are high, and you need to mix and match between the three to get a variety of combos with one of the big three above. Greenwood averaged 1.2 shots per game and 1.17 chances created. He is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Manchester United attack but should be limited to GPP option.

Jack Harrison comes in with salary relief against a promoted team in Leeds, which is not expected to have the same success in their first year back in the EPL. The promising young talent, who stayed with Leeds on loan from Manchester City/ NYCFC, led the club in scoring chances created, added a few crosses and found the back of the net against reigning champions Liverpool. He pairs well with Mateusz Klich and Patrick Bamford against softer competition than a week ago.

Mateusz Klich (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $15)

Kalvin Phillips (DraftKings $6,400 FanDuel $14)

Klich also found the back of the net in his EPL debut and contributed on 15% of Leeds overall scoring last season, which followed a season where he contributed on 25% of the club’s overall scoring. He averages 1.69 shots per game and hits target at an accuracy clip of 31.6%. He builds a floor with open-play crosses at an average of 2.07 per game and 1.52 drawn fouls per game.

Kalvin Phillips is the set piece man for Leeds United. He averaged 6.9 crosses per game a season ago, and he seems underpriced for the floor he brings. He can add to his solid floor with three interceptions and won tackles per game, and his upside is in the created chances.

Other options: Pablo Hernandez (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $13), Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $21), Anthony Martial (DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $22), Aleksandar Mitrovic (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $16), Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $16), Granit Xhaka (DraftKings $3,500, FanDuel $10), Alexandre Lacazette (DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $18).

Defender Picks

Tyrick Mitchell (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $6)

Kieran Tierney (DraftKings $3,900 FanDuel $12)

We have safe options below for defense, but we are strapped for salary at this point. Tyrick Mitchell should continue to get run with Patrick van Aanholt injured. He should see an increase in clear volume, which makes him a solid value on FanDuel. Mitchell’s won tackles and interceptions opportunities will also increase, and he likes to push up the wing and can deliver open-play crosses.

Kieran Tierney provides a few open play crosses and can hit value with interceptions and won tackles. He can create chances might have a clean sheet bonus in the future. A pivot off, or a combo if paying up for all forwards and midfielders, is playing Tierney with Ainsley Maitland-Niles, who could sit right above him on a 3-4-3 formation and rests on the same price level.

Other Options: Luke Ayling (DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $13), Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $12), Gabriel Magalhaes (DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $15), Joe Bryan (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $12),

Goalkeeper Picks

Dean Henderson (DraftKings $5,800 FanDuel $6)

Marek Rodak (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $9)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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