Calvert-Lewin or Werner: EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel | 9/26

Welcome to EPL DFS for Sept. 26. Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.


Related EPL DFS Content


EPL Odds Report

Crystal Palace (+270) vs. Everton (+110), O/U 2.5

West Bromwich (+800) vs. Chelsea (-278), O/U 3.5

Burnley (+220) vs. Southampton (+132), O/U 2.5

The EPL DFS Breakdown

These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.

Forward/Midfield Picks

Ashley Westwood (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $12)

Danny Ings (DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $20)

The teams I want to have the most exposure to are Everton and Chelsea. It will be hard to fit them in, so we need pieces of value without going full punt.

Ashley Westwood comes in too cheap. He splits set pieces with Dwight McNeil, but his shares should provide a solid floor. He averages 4.18 crosses per game and 1.86 won tackles and interceptions per game. His upside comes from his assisted shots (1.55 per game) and six assists. Burnley’s defense is mid tier, with an expected goals against of 48.3, but they allowed the fourth-most crosses into the penalty area in the EPL last season, and that is Westwood’s specialty. I also like McNeil for the same reasons and the aggressive shot attempts, but the price tag is harder to get to.

Danny Ings is not cheap, especially for a goal-or-bust option. But we need goals to separate from the pack, and he provides them in bunches. Ings netted a brace against Tottenham, and while he failed to convert against Crystal Palace, he did put the ball on target multiple times. Last year Ings finished ninth in the EPL in shot volume and hit target at an accuracy clip of 38.9%. He finished second overall in scoring and contributes on 47% of Southampton’s overall scoring. I like the PK man to continue his scoring run from a year ago in this match.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $20)

Chris Wood (DraftKings $6,400 FanDuel $15)

Dominic Calvert-Lewin should go overlooked in this match with the options around, including teammate Richarlison. I like Calvert-Lewin as a leverage play, and his form to start the season has been excellent, recording a goal a game. His scoring draught from a year ago did not come from a lack of attempts as he finished 15th in the EPL in shot volume and hit target at 44.6%. There is risk in spending up for him. I would keep him off cash lineups, as he needs at least a goal at this price or four to five shot attempts, but his upside is undeniable.

Chris Wood comes at a reduced price but with the same goal-or-bust risk. He gets one of the better matchups against a Southampton club that allowed a below-average expected goals against last season with 53.1. Wood averaged 2.04 shots per game with on-target accuracy of 48% and scored in 44% of the games he played in for his club. Jay Rodriguez is an option for Burnley as well for a similar price point and shot volume, but if his injury keeps him out, Wood should be the prime option up front.

Timo Werner (DraftKings $9,200 FanDuel $22)

Kai Havertz (DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $18)

Mason Mount (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $16)

The whole Chelsea front line is in play against the promoted West Bromwich that clearly was not ready for the promotion. They bled multiple goals to Leicester City and Everton, and the matchups are not getting any easier as they take on a Chelsea club that finished last season third in expected goals at 66.6. The main issue is who plays in the front line for Chelsea. Hakim Ziyech is still expected out, as is Christian Pulisic. If Pulisic plays, I really like him even at $9,500 on DraftKings and especially at $17 on FanDuel.

Timo Werner has yet to find the back of the net for his new club, but that should change in this matchup. He finished second in overall scoring for RB Leipzig a season ago and averaged 3.45 shots per game with on-target accuracy of 50.4%. His brace upside justifies his price and I am willing to pay it.

Kai Havertz comes in after a successful campaign, not to the level of Werner, but he is significantly cheaper. Along with Mason Mount, he should garner a lot of ownership given the matchup, price tags and offensive pedigrees. The corner kick sets early on look to belong to Reece James, but these two wingers can cross from open play and are not shy to shoot. Havertz averaged 1.94 shots per game last season and scored in 40% of his games played. Mount contributed on 18% of Chelsea’s overall scoring and averaged 2.11 shots per game. Mount is hurt without the corner kick shares, but he averaged 3.68 crosses per game, 42% of which came from open play.

Other Options: Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $14), Richarlison (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $19), James Rodriguez (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $16), Jorginho (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $14), Jeffrey Schlupp (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $10), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $19).

Defender Picks

Charlie Taylor (DraftKings $4,300 FanDuel $9)

Charlie Taylor provides salary relief and is an active wingback for Burnley that pushes up the wing. He has shot-creation ability for his teammates against a Southampton team that can leak out scoring opportunities on its defense and allowed an expected goals of 53.1. In his appearances for the club, Taylor averaged 2.34 tackles won/interceptions, 3.67 crosses from open play and over a foul drawn per game. He does not need much to hit value and brings a safe floor.

Tyrick Mitchell (DraftKings $3,900 FanDuel $8)

Tyrick Mitchell continues to fill the wing back role for Crystal Palace, and his price has yet to reflect is contributions. In the short season and going back to last season, he is averaging 1.5 crosses per game and 2.67 tackles won/interceptions per game. I think he is too cheap on FanDuel, as he will get increased clears opportunities against the Everton wings, and he is currently averaging two clears and five tackles per game.

Other Options: Lucas Digne (DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $14), Reece James (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $15), Kyle Bartley (DraftKings $2,500, FanDuel $10)(FanDuel specific), Marco Alonso (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $14), Kyle Walker-Peters (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $11).

Goalkeeper Picks

Jordan Pickford (DraftKings $5,200 FanDuel $11)

Nick Pope (DraftKings $4,500 FanDuel $10)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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