Welcome to EPL DFS for Sept. 28. Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
Fulham (+188) vs. Aston Villa (+150), O/U 2.5
Liverpool (-180) vs. Arsenal (+440), O/U 3.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Forward/Midfield Picks
Aleksandar Mitrovic (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $17)
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings $6,200 FanDuel $16)
There will be no shortage of attention on Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on this two-game slate. Two of the three are great cash plays. You will not be different jamming them in, and there are better upside players.
Aleksandar Mitrovic comes into this matchup against an Aston Villa team that allowed an EPL-worst 65.9 expected goals against last season. Mitrovic is playing up in competition this season, but just like last week, Fulham should be in a competitive game. Mitrovic averaged 3.78 shots per game a year ago, hitting target 37.7% of the time. His output is driven by finding the back of the net, but I like him with the best chance of picking up a brace at a lower price tag.
Ollie Watkins disappointed in his season debut but has a better matchup on this slate. Fulham advanced out of the Championship last season largely by scoring at a higher rate than the opposition. Their defense was not impressive, and Watkins should have chances to finish. He comes to Aston Villa from Brentford, where he led the club in scoring a season ago. Watkins averaged 2.74 shots per game, hitting the target at a 38.9% accuracy clip. He can add to his output with 1.48 fouls drawn per game, but his upside comes from finding the back of the net.
Trezeguet (DraftKings $5,400 FanDuel $17)
Conor Hourihane (DraftKings $7,200 FanDuel $14)
Jack Grealish is a great play like the three forwards above, and I will have shares of all of them. With the salaries, I like Trezeguet and Conor Hourihane as GPP plays. Trezeguet plays on the wing and can contribute with open-play crosses (1.97 per game a season ago) and 2.09 shots/assisted shots per game. He does not need much to pay off the price, and he is contributing on 17% of Aston Villa’s overall scoring.
Hourihane takes a large share of Aston Villa’s corner sets, and his floor is safe. With 20% goal contribution, there is upside to pair with 4.15 crosses per game and 2.49 shots and assisted shots per game.
Other Options: Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $23), Sadio Mane (DraftKings $10,400, FanDuel $22), Willian (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $17), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $19), Jack Grealish (DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $18).
Defender Picks
Matthew Cash (DraftKings $4,600 FanDuel $10)
Matthew Cash preformed really well in his debut in the EPL, and his price is still too cheap. He got off a few attempts at the net, which is nothing new to him, and he continued his volume open-play crosses. Cash averages 3.77 crosses per game and 3.41 won tackles and interceptions per game. He is my favorite defender play not named Trent Alexander-Arnold. If Cash is not in the lineup, I would pivot to Matt Target.
Joe Bryan (DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $13)
Joe Bryan takes set piece shares for Fulham and pushes up the wing to get involved in the offense. He averaged 4.4 crosses per game and 2.21 won tackles/interceptions per game last season. His price could keep ownership down, so playing him can give you leverage.
Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $15), Tyrone Mings (DraftKings $3,300, FanDuel $14), Matt Target (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $13), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $12), Kenny Tete (DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $12).
Goalkeeper Picks
Bernd Leno (DraftKings $3,900 FanDuel $8)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings $4,800 FanDuel $11)
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