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Watford @ Brighton – EPL DFS Preview & Breakdown w/ Troy Deeney (FREE)

Tristan Hoh

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Watford and Troy Deeney will look to get back on their feet after two disappointing losses. Brighton won't go down easy on home turf.

This Saturday, February 8th, 15th place Brighton take on 19th place Brighton. With only two matches on Saturday’s EPL DFS slate, all eyes will be on the likes of Troy Deeney in what could prove to be a pivotal match for both sides. Here you’ll hopefully be able to find an in-depth game theory and an overview of the key players at hand. Above all, the means to make profit in fantasy premier league.

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EPL DFS Updates

TBD (12:00 p.m.)

EPL DFS Odds Report & Expected Lineups

Watford (+260) @ Brighton (+110) 

Over/Under: 2.5 (-115 over)

Watford Predicted XI: Foster; Mariappa, Dawson, Cathcart, Masina; Chalobah, Capoue; Pereyra, Doucoure, Deulofeu; Deeney

Brighton Predicted XI: Ryan; Alzate, Webster, Dunk, Bernardo; Propper, Stephens, Mooy; Gross Murray, Trossard

EPL DFS Game Theory & Player Pool

Somehow able to claw back from a 3-1 deficit to scrap out a draw, Brighton are coming in with some confidence in the attacking half. There are still some kinks to be straightened out on the defensive side of the ball, but Brighton will play their game and try to keep things compact in the back while making the best of the chances they create. There aren’t any monumental injuries on either side, so expect first choice XI’s.

Watford (1.23 implied goals)

Watford have been reincarnated since Nigel Pearson took over at the helm – with 15 points in his first 10 matches as boss (ninth in the Premier League during that span). The reason for this rebirth has been the ability to balance a game out. They’ve been compact in the back and in the midfield while Troy Deeney’s ($8200) goal creation has willed them to a handful of positive results. He’ll be licking his lips looking at Brighton’s recent form (three goals conceded to West Ham and Bournemouth in back to back matches). There’s plenty of reason for concern though as Brighton doesn’t allow many peripherals. They rank 17th (of 20) in crosses allowed per match and 11th in shots allowed. Watford’s team total is low and for good reason – the Amex is a tough place to find success for travelers at times. Even with a low amount of crosses allowed, Adam Masina ($5600) is likely to garner hefty ownership after taking control of most of Watford’s corner kicks. His price here is clearly too low. Nathaniel Chalobah ($4400) may or may not be fit to start, but he too at his price makes a strong salary saver with a share of set pieces. Even if Chalobah starts, I’d prefer Abdoulaye Doucouré ($4800) who’s also sitting at a questionably low price. Rounding out the attack, Gerard Deulofeu ($9000) and Roberto Pereyra ($7200), while overpriced, need to be considered on one game slates. They’ll need a goal or assist to pay dividends, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t in play. The bottom line is that in soccer showdown slates, you’ll need the goals scored since, typically, there aren’t many scored. Deeney is my preferred exposure from the Watford attack.

Brighton (1.56 implied goals)

While Brighton haven’t been world beaters in chances created, they have dominated possession in a lot of their matches of late, giving some hope to their attackers. This especially bodes well for Pascal Gross ($10200), who seemed to have taken control of set pieces for the time being over Aaron Mooy ($8800). Gross is my favorite captain option in this match, while Mooy is viable in that position as well. The more goal dependent players in this attack – Leandro Trossard ($10000) and Glenn Murray ($7400) – are also very viable. Brighton are likely to control the ball, giving them a better chance of scoring multiple goals than Watford. In particular, the über talented winger Trossard should have his way against makeshift fullback Mariappa. We know Murray is as goal dependent as they come, but as mentioned earlier, the bottom line is finding the goals on soccer showdown slates. I’m not a massive proponent for him, but anyone with brace upside is viable in both the FLEX and captain spot. 

Miscellaneous

With solid salary savers in Masina, Doucoure, and Chalobah, I don’t see much of a need to play any center-backs this slate. Obviously a guy like Dunk could score a header off of a set piece, but predicting CB goals is a business I am not in. I see the angle of mixing in one or two lineups with a CB per 10 lineups, but I wouldn’t push much further. Chances are they don’t end up in the optimal lineup though. As for goal-keepers, clean sheet odds are fairly low for each side, so I’d need to get around 20 lineups before exposing myself to a GK.

EPL DFS CPT Rankings

Ranked by all things considered.

  1. Pascal Gross
  2. Leandro Trossard
  3. Glenn Murray
  4. Troy Deeney

Good luck!

Hi! I’m the Director of Soccer Content at Awesemo.com and a student at the University of Cincinnati. My main goal here at Awesemo is to help you become a better daily fantasy player, especially if that means in a sport that you’re not accustomed to, like soccer. Hopefully with the help of DFS, you’ll fall in love with the beautiful game, just as I did! You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @tristanhoh.

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