Welcome to EPL DFS for Aug 1 (8/1/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
Sports are back and we’re giving you your first month of Awesemo+ half-off when you use promo code RESTART at checkout. That’s only $45 for a month of Awesemo’s leading DFS projections, tools and content for NBA, MLB, PGA and more! Celebrate the return of sports with this great deal, you won’t find a better value anywhere else. This offer is valid through Aug. 3.
EPL Odds Report
Arsenal (+250) vs. Chelsea (+110), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have Arsenal taking on Chelsea for the FA Cup championship. Arsenal need to win to secure a Europa league spot. Chelsea is fourth in the EPL with an expected goals against of 38.2, while Arsenal is middle of the pack at 56.8. Offensively Chelsea ranks third in the EPL with an expected goals for of 68.5. Arsenal has climbed up and finished seventh overall with an expected goals against of 49.6.
Arsenal have allowed the third-most shots on target against in the EPL, while Chelsea has allowed the third fewest. I give the keeper advantage to Emiliano Martinez from Arsenal, who has been solid in the back and propelling Arsenal’s late-season run. He is viable if MMEing. He will see plenty of volume from the second highest shot volume team in the EPL, Chelsea, and can pay off his $5,600 tag without a clean sheet. Arsenal does not shoot enough, ranking sixth lowest in the EPL, but they are one of the most accurate teams. I do not think Kepa Arrizabalaga is a preferred choice unless you project a shutout win. I give the edge to Chelsea 2-1 but think a better play is over 2.5.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech are in the DraftKings player pools. DO NOT ROSTER THEM AS THEY ARE NOT ALLOWED TO PLAY IN THE FA CUP. THEY ARE ONLY TRAINING AS NEW ADDITIONS TO THE CHELSEA TEAM.
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Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $16,200)
Nicolas Pepe (DraftKings $12,900)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finished the EPL campaign top 10 in shot volume with 44% on-target accuracy. He also fell one goal shy of the Golden Boot race for most goals. He accounted for 45% of Arsenal’s overall scoring and always brings brace upside.
Nicolas Pepe ranks top 30 in the EPL in crossing volume and shares in corner set pieces for Arsenal. He missed seven games for Aresnal but managed to contribute on 20% of their overall scoring. He brings a solid floor and goal involvement. If he is out of the lineup, Bukayo Saka becomes a solid play if he is lined up at the wing position. Sometimes Alexandre Lacazette slots up at the wing and would make me like Pepe and Saka less, but Lacazette on the wing is more of a Flex play. Lacazette as the striker is more appealing.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2019-2020 stats: 22 goals, 90 shots.
Nicolas Pepe 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 4 assists, 108 crosses.
Willian (DraftKings $15,300)
Christian Pulisic (DraftKings $14,700)
Willian is priced as if Werner and Ziyech are playing in this match. As noted above this is not the case, and I like the discounted price. Willian ranked 11th in the EPL in crossing volume and controls set piece shares for Chelsea. He finished top 30 in shot volume and hit net at an accuracy clip of 38%. His floor is solid and the upside comes from his goal involvement of 24%.
Christian Pulisic should be ready to go in this match and is contributing on 19% of Chelsea’s overall scoring despite missing 13 games. He is top 30 in shot volume in the EPL and hits target 40.3% of the time. If Mason Mount plays on the wing, I like him at the Captain spot, but if he lines up behind Willian or Pulisic, I relegate him to a Flex play.
Willian 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 175 crosses.
Christian Pulisic 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 61 shots.
Other Options: Alexandre Lacazette (DraftKings $11,700), Mason Mount (DraftKings $13,500).
Marcos Alonso (DraftKings $7,400)
Cesar Azpilicueta (DraftKings $4,800)
Marcos Alonso averages 3.22 shots/assisted shots and 3.82 crosses per game. This could be his final game for Chelsea, so I expect him to have motivation to preform. Cesar Azpilicueta’s price has dropped, but even at the back when Reece Jame playing, he still is pushing up to contribute on the offense. He is possibly the best value play because half his usage of 3.28 crosses and 3.53 won tackles/interceptions per game is enough to hit value. Both Alonso and Azpilicueta have upside from goal involvement of 9% and 12%, respectively.
Olivier Giroud (DraftKings $9,400)
Olivier Giroud has been on a scoring tear to lead Chelsea to the Champions League. He is averaging 2.17 shots per game with an accuracy of 48.7%. Giroud is scoring in 45% of the games he is playing, but his lack of other attributes, plus the sub risk, makes him a better Flex play. Giroud has hinted he will be leaving Chelsea, and there is motivation to perform in his last match. If Tammy Abraham plays ahead of him, I would pivot to Abraham, but if Giroud starts, I like his chances to find the back of the net before substitution.
Other Options: Ross Barkley (DraftKings $8,000), Reece James (DraftKings $6,200), Kieran Tierney (DraftKings $5,000), Dani Ceballos (DraftKings $4,400), Cedric Soares (DraftKings $5,800).