The Corner Kick: EPL Game Week 12 Betting Picks | Who Takes the Manchester Derby? 12/8

The following are EPL betting picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer wagers which can be found via OddsShopper.

Favorite EPL Betting Picks

Manchester United vs Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline (-130)

The Manchester Derby returns as Manchester United hosts Manchester City. Manchester United has been a disaster at home this year, with 7.3 expected goals against of, ranking mid tier in the EPL. Their home expected goals differential is -1.6. Manchester City has turned up the heat on the road with a fourth-ranked expected goals differential of +3. They also have the third-best defense on the road.

Manchester City has recorded seven clean sheets in their previous nine matches, including four on the road. Manchester United has one home shutout in their previous nine matches. To add insult to injury, Manchester United will be tired after being blitzed out of the Champions League group stage by RB Leipzig. Manchester City should have well-rested players, as their midweek match holds no importance and they could turn to their B-squad to close it out.

I expect Kevin De Bruyne and company to continue their resurgence to the top of EPL standings and win this one with ease. The line should drop from now to kickoff, settling closer to the -175 range, so I will lock the play while the value seems to good to be true. This could be one of the top soccer wagers of the week.

Everton vs Chelsea: Chelsea Moneyline (-132)

Everton welcomes a red-hot Chelsea to Goodison Park. Their offense is carrying the load for the club, while their defense is making it difficult for the team to walk out of matches with 3 points. Their home goal differential is +0.4. Everton’s home expected goals allowed ranks fourth from the bottom in the EPL. This can be attributed to the absence of Lucas Digne and Seamus Coleman. The offense is fifth best in the EPL at home. In recent form, the offense has not lived up to early-season success, recording three straight games of 1.5 expected goals or fewer. Now they face a top road defense in Chelsea.

Chelsea’s road defense ranks second in the EPL with 4.1 expected goals allowed. They have allowed one goal in the last six road contests with five clean sheets. Chelsea has recorded two or more goals in five of those six road matches, with notable opponents being Sevilla and Burnley. Chelsea could be without Hakim Ziyech in this match, but they welcome back Christian Pulisic. The starting squad is led up front by Timo Werner and Olivier Giroud. They should be able to find the back of the net against a depleted Everton defense.

Bonus EPL Betting Picks/ Soccer Wagers for Other Leagues

EPL Parlay Play: Tottenham Moneyline/ Liverpool Moneyline (+131)

EPL: Wolverhampton vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+220)

La Liga: Getafe vs Sevilla: Sevilla Moneyline (+105)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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