Rounding out Gameweek 21 takes to Anfield where piping-hot Liverpool takes on a sneaky Sheffield defense. I’ll take a peek at the odds, touch on some game theory, overview the key players at hand and rank preferred captain(s). You can find fantasy Premier League content each week here at Awesemo, so stay up to date on it all by following @Awesemo_Com and @tristanhoh on Twitter.
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TBD (2:15 p.m.)
Odds Report & Expected Lineups
Sheffield United (+1120) @ Liverpool (-340)
Sheff. United Projected XI: Henderson – Basham, Egan, O’Connell – Baldock, Lundtsram, Norwood, Fleck, Stevens – McBurnie, McGoldrick
Wolverhampton Projected XI: Alisson – Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Roberton – Wijnaldum, Keita, Milner – Salah, Firmino, Mane
Game Theory & Player Pool
Ranked per dollar.
There’s no way around the fact that Sheffield should be noncompetitive in this one. In terms of peripherals conceded, they’re middle of the pack, but against the world’s best, they won’t hold much possession. It’s suicide betting against Liverpool on home turf, but on a one-game slate we can hope for an unlikely outcome in some spots.
Oliver Norwood ($4,800) – Safest floor for the dollar on Sheffield. Splits corner duty with Fleck and carries a similar floor/ceiling combo for $2,200 less.
David McGoldrick ($4,800) – McGoldrick having zero Premier League goals this season is a mystery. He’s been awesome with a 0.54 xG per 90 minutes (highest on the team; for comparison: Mane of Liverpool has a 0.51 with 10 goals and Firmino has a 0.48 with six goals).
Enda Stevens ($4,400) – Fair value but doesn’t truly offer a whole lot. Fine lineup filler but likely falls into the 4-6 point range here without much wiggle room. George Baldock is also in the conversation on the opposite flank.
John Fleck ($7,000) – Inflated price due to his brace a few weeks back. Nevertheless grades out as a fair floor option.
It’s no hot take in saying Liverpool will win and will dominate the match. That said, Sheffield’s defense is rock solid and tactically astute. I see scripts where Liverpool struggle to crack through, especially if they rotate around a little bit (although rotation is not expected). Your lineups will absolutely be Liverpool-heavy regardless but I wouldn’t count out a draw or a Liverpool struggle.
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($9,600) – Been incredible lately with a monopoly over set pieces, but is clearly due for regression in the goal/assist department. Nevertheless, should cruise to double digits with ease.
Mohamed Salah ($11,200) – Highest-upside captain on the slate. His ownership will reflect such, but it’s hard to get away from him.
Georginio Wijnaldum ($3,800) – Egregious price-tag on the Dutchman who, despite not being the most prolific attacker with Liverpool, still does enough to deserve plenty of FLEX ownership at $3,800.
Andrew Robertson ($7,600) – Slight set piece share over the past two matches, taking three of Liverpool’s 13 set pieces over that span. Still cheap enough to consider in all formats.
Roberto Firmino ($9,400) – Typically is overlooked with Mane and Salah looming as more prolific goal-scorers, but Firmino is an integral part of the team. He even comes at a discount compared to his two compatriots on the frontline.
Sadio Mane ($12,000) – Lowest xG+xA per 90 of the front three yet is the highest-priced starter on the slate. Still deserves plenty of ownership due to his true goal prowess but on a one-game slate, I’ll look to Salah and Firmino before Mane.
Naby Keita, James Milner, Alisson, and Virgil van Dijk are also viable.
A vast majority of the field will have a Liverpool captain. Swaying from that is sure to be bold.
- Mohamed Salah
- Trent Alexander-Arnold
- Roberto Firmino
- David McGoldrick
- Sadio Mane