The King of the Pitch: EPL Fantasy Picks & Analysis for Gameweek 4, Fire Up Manuel Lanzini

Welcome to the King of the Pitch for Gameweek 4! It’ll consist of a comprehensive game breakdown for each team, as well as an overall diagnosis of the slate ahead for both your main, and tournament builds. We’ve got great EPL fantasy Premier League (FPL) content each and every week here at Awesemo, so stay up to date on it all by following @Stokastic_Com & @tristanhoh on Twitter.

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Updates with Lineups Released

TBD.

Match Breakdowns

Sheffield United (+875) @ Chelsea (-260) – OU 2.5

Core Options: Mason Mount

Secondary: Tammy Abraham, Christian Pulisic, Willian

Sheffield United: They’re likely to bunker down in almost all of their fixtures, especially on the road against top tier sides. No one relevant for fantasy here on a full slate unless you wanted to take a shot in the dark on one of their strikers, hoping for a goal and 12 points. Chelsea have looked ‘bleh’ defensively thus far.

Chelsea: Large favorites, but tough to fit on this slate. There’s a loot of GPP viable fine upper-mid options in Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount, and Christian Pulisic (also Willian if he starts). Emerson is the spend up defender of choice this weekend, but paying up that far probably isn’t necessary.

Aston Villa (+260) @ Crystal Palace (+120) – OU 2.5

Core Options: Frederick Guilbert

Secondary: Jack Grealish, Wilfried Zaha, Andros Townsend,Luka Milivojevich, Max Meyer

Villa: Selhurst Park is a low key tough place to play, and my assumption is that’s why Palace are favored. Jack Grealish is awesome, but this isn’t an optimal spot for a creative playmaker. He’s in the mix, but keep it to tournaments. On another note, I really like Frederick Guilbert at defender. Villa push their fullbacks decently high up the field, and if given another starting opportunity, he’s good value for 3500.

Palace: Very sneaky GPP options, as well as a decent cash option in Luka Milivojevich. The Serbian CM has little upside in the run of play, but with penalty duty and almost a full allotment of set pieces, he’s decent for cash here. Wilf Zaha, Andros Townsend, and Max Meyer are all sneaky GPP differential upside options.a

Bournemouth (+400) @ Leicester City (-140) – OU 3.0

Core Options: James Maddison

Secondary: Ryan Fraser, Harry Wilson, Callum Wilson, Josh King, Diego Rico, Jamie Vardy, Ayoze Perez, Youri Tielemans, Ricardo Pereira, Ben Chilwell

Bournemouth: The over/under here sits at 3 and continues to rise. Two solid attacks with mediocre defenses just spells goal fest. Josh King and Callum Wilson are both decent bets to score here, while Harry Wilson is a solid value at sub 6K with some set pieces. He had a glorious freekick against Manchester City and the Welschman’s spirits are surely high at the moment. Diego Rico is another guy who’s still underpriced with a bit of a set piece share and overall attacking prowess for a defender. The other set piece takers rise is the downfall to Ryan Fraser in a sense. 7K is fair but I’ll probably pass here.

Leicester: It’s all about James Maddison here. I’ll go into more detail below in the construction section, but this slate feels like it really comes down to Maddison versus stacking two Citizens. Aside from Maddison, the rest of the gang here make for decent one off tournament darts, with Jamie Vardy leading the pack. It sucks to say, but he honestly needs a brace to be worth it at his price with virtually no floor. It could truly happen in this spot though.

Brighton (+3100) @ Manchester City (-1100) – OU 3.5

Core Options: Sergio Aguero, Kevin de Bruyne, Raheem Sterling

Secondary: Rest of the City XI

Brighton: Nope.

City: Three goal favorites, don’t overthink things. Exposure is necessary. Whole XI in play. I personally am ranking them Aguero, KDB, Sterling (per dollar) at the moment with Bernardo behind them. CB’s are very fine as well with a likely clean sheet and likeliness to exceed 100 passes.

Watford (+170) @ Newcastle (+160) – OU 2.5

Core Options: Jetro Willems

Secondary: Jose Holebas, Roberto Pereyra, Joelinton, Christian Atsu

Watford: Without some attacking pieces, they’re struggling to get goals into the back of the net. Their run of bad form will halt eventually, but I’m not sure this is the spot. Jose Holebas remains a very safe floor option at defender, but aside from that, it’s pretty thin.

Newcastle: Matt Ritchie is out for 2 months, so a full set piece share is up for grabs. Christian Atsu hasn’t taken many in the past, but he subbed on midweek in a cup match and took the one corner they had while he was out there, so maybe he’s the answer. I’d feel a lot more confident in that if Jonjo Shelvey doesn’t play. If they both play, I’d expect a split, but I can’t say that with too much confidence. It could also be Miguel Almiron, or Jetro Willems (who’s a fantastic value if in) on them.

Norwich City (+300) @ West Ham United (-105) – OU 3.0

Core Options: Manuel Lanzini

Secondary: Teemu Pukki, Emmanuel Buendia, Todd Cantwell, Sebastien Haller, Felipe Anderson

Norwich: Teemu Pukki can’t stop scoring goals. This is another match that he’ll probably be looking to get on the scoresheet, but honestly I don’t see a way of fitting him at 8500. His comrades in attack with Emmanuel Buendia and Todd Cantwell are both solid options for the prices, with Buendia being much better & safer. I’m not going to be on Cantwell – he’s a better player in real life than fantasy. That said, there’s always a chance he pops up with 2 assists again or something.

West Ham: West Ham is easy to handle now, as long as Robert Snodgrass stays out of the XI. Manuel Lanzini is once again a fine value and someone I plan on prioritizing. Sebastien Haller had a world class brace last match and could very follow up with another tally or two.

FanDuel

Tier 1 F/M: Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne

T2 F/M: Maddison, Mount, Vardy

T3 F/M: Bernardo, Lanzini, Pulisic

Defender: (CB’s on the road tend to fare best in FD’s scoring format)

Goalkeeper: Ederson, Kepa, Dubravka

Favorite Bets

2-0 last weekend with SOU/BHA and LEI/SHU each going over 2.5. Let’s run it back!

This weeks bets are TBD. (10PM)

Final Thoughts

TBD by 10PM.

 

Thanks for reading!

Author

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