The King of the Pitch: EPL Fantasy Picks & Analysis for Gameweek 5

Welcome to the King of the Pitch for Gameweek 5! It’ll consist of a comprehensive game breakdown for each team, as well as an overall diagnosis of the slate ahead for both your main, and tournament builds. We’ve got great EPL fantasy Premier League (FPL) content each and every week here at Awesemo, so stay up to date on it all by following @Stokastic_Com & @tristanhoh on Twitter.

Very solid prize pool this weekend, don’t miss out on Awesemo+ any longer! Sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best daily fantasy player’s projections and rankings.

Here are the other SOC articles we have posted throughout the week:

The Game Plan GW5 (FREE) – Posted

GW5 Cheat Sheet (FREE) – Posted

Updates with Lineups Released

Burnley: n/a

Brighton: Webster and Burn playing fullback? Sort of odd given they’re both CB’s by trade, but they likely have some ability to cross. For 3.3 and 3.2, you could do much worse. Solly March gets a slight bump going from an expected start at left wingback to left winger, with the change in formation.

Leicester: n/a

United: n/a

Southampton: Bertrand out today, with Djenepo shifting in at left wingback. Not much of a fantasy asset today.

Sheffield: n/a

Palace: n/a

Tottenham: Aurier gets his first start of the season at fullback which is a bit of a surprise. He’s attacking minded, but not my favorite option ever at 5300. Son and Lamela start over Moura, so my preferred Spur ranking, all things considered, are Kane, Eriksen (floor), Son (upside), Lamela.

Chelsea: No Pulisic, dang. Willian starts though, which could cut into Mount’s set piece share. Willian, Mount, and Abraham are all GPP viable as Spurs pivots, likely low owned all around. I don’t love it, but whatever production they can conjure up more than likely goes through these three. I like the over in this one, adding it to the weekly bets.

Wolves: n/a

Match Breakdowns

Burnley (+270) @ Brighton (+115) – OU 2.5

Core Options: Pascal Gross (BHA)

Secondary: Dwight McNeil, Chris Wood (BUR) / Solly March, Neal Maupay, Martin Montoya (BHA)

Burnley: Aside from Dwight McNeil and Chris Wood, there’s not much to fancy here. Burnley often employs a park the bus style, which doesn’t inspire much fantasy goodness. McNeil will still have ample chances for open play crosses / set pieces, and Brighton will allow some chances for strikeforce Wood and Ashley Barnes, which makes them GPP viable.

Brighton: Touched on it in the Game Plan article, but Trossard’s absence opens up quite a bit for Brighton. Solly March and Pascal Gross should split set pieces here. While the upside isn’t the best with these two, it’s a good matchup, and their prices are too low. It’s a great opportunity to capture a solid floor. Neal Maupay and Martin Montoya can also be mixed into your builds, correlating with Gross / March in hopes of them hooking up for a goal / assist.

Leicester City (+360) @ Manchester United (-120) – OU 2.5

Core Options: Ashley Young (MU)

Secondary: James Maddison (LEI) / Marcus Rashford, Daniel James (MU)

Leicester: What Leicester wants is for United to push too far and leave gaps in their defense. I think they’ll go in with that mindset, and end up conceding more possession, in hopes of getting Vardy through on the counter. One Jamie Vardy loves playing against the top flight, but given his price and low floor, I personally won’t be going there. I have more interest in James Maddison, who comes baked in with a pristinely safe floor. He won’t be able to accumulate points as much as he has thus far, but the floor/upside combo is still there to be had.

United: The Red Devils on the other hand deserve some consideration, starting with ‘ole reliable’ defender in Ashley Young. No, you don’t need to play him, but given he’ll be taking set pieces, his floor is cemented into being pretty solid. Marcus Rashford and Danny James deserve consideration on an undermanned team (Pogba, Martial, Shaw all nursing injuries), but I’m passing for the most part on the United high priced players, aside from light exposure when multi-entering.

Southampton (+205) @ Sheffield United (+145)

Core Options: Cedric Soares (SOU)

Secondary: Danny Ings, Soufiane Boufal, Che Adams (SOU) / Oliver Norwood, Enda Stevens, George Baldock (SHU)

Southampton: A game between two rivals that the oddsmakers seem to be undervaluing in a big way. Both sides should see chances in what should be an open match. Both Danny Ings, Soufiane Boufal, and Che Adams strike my fancy for a cheap goal – Adams in particular. Cedric Soares was a 5K player at times last season before transferring to Inter Milan. Now that he’s back, 3700 is very fair regardless of matchup. It’s hard to click the button, but you could do worse than James Ward-Prowse on DraftKings. Sheffield concede possession in most matches which will lead to a few JWP set pieces. His upside is a major question but it’s viable here.

Sheffield: The home side may have the edge here. The fans will be up for it, and we could see somewhat of a basketball match with end to end stuff. Sheffield and Southampton both think they can get 3 points from this match. The entirety of the team is in play, but none establish too much conviction. Callum Robinson and David McGoldrick are decent bets for a goal, but I’m unlikely to go there. With his set piece & safe floor, Oliver Norwood will see a chunk of ownership, which is somewhat deserved. I prefer going elsewhere with my salary, but you could absolutely do worse. 

Crystal Palace (+750) @ Tottenham (-275) – OU 3.0

Core Options: Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen (TOT)

Secondary: Luka Milivojevich (CRY) / Son Heung-Min, Danny Rose (TOT)

Palace: Too many other spots. While going back to Luka Milivojevich after a phenomenal fantasy outing is somewhat viable, it’s not something I plan on doing. They’ll park the bus here at Wembley and won’t provide much value. You could take a shot on a sub 5% Wilf Zaha against a somewhat suspect Spurs side thus far, but that’s also too bold for my blood.

Tottenham: There are some red flags with Spurs, and Palace are on the up, but our options are limited this slate. As largest favorites, it’s a bold fade to fully pass up Spurs. Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen are the top dogs of course, but don’t sleep on whichever two start out of Erik Lamela, Lucas Moura, and Son Heung-Min.

Chelsea (+145) @ Wolves (+195) – OU 2.5

Core Options: –

Secondary: Mason Mount, Tammy Abraham, Christian Pulisic (CHE) / Raul Jimenez, Joao Moutinho, Jonny (WOL)

Chelsea: American international Christian Pulisic is the one guy I’m willing to take a shot on here, to be honest. Possibly Tammy Abraham as well, given Chelsea have looked strong going forward, but a date with Wolverhampton on the road doesn’t spell a whole lot of upside. They’ve looked strong going forward, but I don’t see them getting more than two goals max here.

Wolverhampton: While Chelsea have looked appealing to the eye in the attack under Lampard, it’s been the opposite at the back end. Raul Jimenez should be licking his chops to lead Wolves to their first win of the campaign, but at 8K, you need a little more than just a goal. He’s capable of it, but that doesn’t inspire a whole lot 14of confidence in me. Same goes for Diogo Jota. They’re fine to mix in as differential GPP options, but not guys that you should go out of your way for.

FanDuel

Tier 1 ($$$) F/M: Kane, Sterling, Aguero, De Bruyne

T2 ($$) F/M: Eriksen, Son/Lucas, Pulisic, James

T3 ($) F/M: Lamela, Wood, Murray/Maupay, Ings/Adams

Defender: CB’s on the road tend to fare best in FD’s scoring format / Norwich D’s, Crystal Palace D’s,  Leicester City D’s, Burnley D’s

Goalkeeper: Ederson, Lloris, Patricio

My preferred route on FD this slate is grabbing 3 to 4 F/M from City/Spurs, and mixing in a one-off forward if need be. 

GW5 Best Bets

2-0 YTD

Burnley / Brighton OVER 2.5 (+110)

Southampton / Sheffield Utd. OVER 2.5 (+125)

Chelsea / Wolves OVER 3.5 (+225)

Final Thoughts

After starting with Gross and a Spur attacker, you have plenty of options. In a main build, you could even jam in another Spur attacker if you wish. 

If not, Maddison is a fine alternative to someone like Eriksen. OR, you could completely overpass the ‘stud range’ and go for more of a balanced build, which could end up being the optimal. Tottenham aren’t THAT big of favorites after all, to the point where needing two pieces of the attack is necessary (-250).

I’m toying with both of the aforementioned builds, and to be honest, I like the way they’re both shaping up. I’ll list 3 of my favorite options per position for a main build, followed a favorite GPP ‘one off’ option.

Main Build: Kane, Gross, Adams (F), Eriksen, Maddison, March (M), Rose, Young, Cedric (D)

GPP: Wood (F), Pulisic (M), Jonny (D)

 

Thanks for reading!

Author

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NHL DFS Projections | Today’s Slate

NBA DFS Projections

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Ownership – Express Slates

FanDuel NBA DFS Ownership

NBA DFS Ownership – Main Slate

NBA Data Central

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.