Welcome to La Liga DFS for June 26 (6/26/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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La Liga Odds Report
Sevilla (-235) vs. Valladolid (+700), O/U 2.5
The La Liga Breakdown
This showdown looks to be one-sided. The fourth-ranked Sevilla squad takes on Real Valladolid, who sits near the bottom of La Liga. Sevilla should not take this game lightly as they have Getafe creeping up on them and could overtake them for the final Champions League spot, so the motivation to get the win will be there. Sevilla ranks fifth in La Liga in expected goals at 40.3% and fourth in expected goals allowed at 28.8%. Real Valldolid sits last in La Liga in expected goals at 28.6% and just below average in expected goals against at 39.8%.
I expect Sevilla to take this game with conviction. They rank fourth in La Liga in shot volume, towering over the fourth-lowest, Valladolid, by 101 total shots. Valladolid plays their game around the midfield and only pushes into the opponent’s third 24% of the time. They allow 52% of shots form inside the 18-yard box. This plays into Sevilla’s offensive game plan where they do the vast majority of their volume shooting at 62% from inside the 18-yard box.
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
DFS Picks: Captain
Lucas Ocampos (DraftKings $17,100)
Ocampos is the most expensive player on the slate but he has the highest floor and upside. He ranks 10th in La Liga in shot volume, hits the target at an accuracy clip of 41.7% and is tied for third in La Liga in overall scoring. If Ever Banega sits this game out, Ocampos should have an uptick in cross volume. If Bangea is in, I would consider him as the top Captain play alongside Ocampos.
Lucas Ocampos 2019-2020 stats: 11 goals, 62 shots, 80 crosses.
Luuk de Jong (DraftKings $16,500)
A way to differentiate from the chalk is goal scorer de Jong. De Jong ranks top-20 in La Liga in shot volume on the fourth-highest-shooting team, Sevilla. He is goal-dependent but hits the target at an accuracy clip of 42.9%. With Valladolid allowing the fourth-worst expected goals, if de Jong is able to put one or two goals in the back of the net, he can outscore Ocampos and this makes the roster construction more balanced given the upside with salary relief.
Luuk de Jong 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 50 shots.
Raul Garcia (DraftKings $9,900)
Upsets are common place in soccer and Garcia is the setup man for Real Valladolid. In just 13 appearances, he has almost six crosses per game. You will not need more than a couple of shares to get overweight and he serves as a hedge against high-owned Sevilla five-man stacks. Garcia is also viable as the one-off in the flex position.
Raul Garcia 2019-2020 stats: 7 shots, 77 crosses, 13 appearances.
Other Options: Suso (DraftKings $15,000), Munir El Haddadi (DraftKings $16,800), Enes Unal (DraftKings $12,900)
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DFS Picks: Flex
Jesus Navas (DraftKings $8,400)
Navas is the consistent producer for the Sevilla. He should be in line for the clean sheet and leads the team in assisted shot volume. He ranks first overall in La Liga in crossing volume and does it all through open play.
Jesus Navas 2019-2020 stats: 5 assists, 50 shots assisted, 196 crosses.
Joan Jordan (DraftKings $7,800)
Jordan’s price has become reflective of his team role and that could keep ownership down. He sits top-35 in La Liga in cross volume and is not one of the team leaders in crossing. He does control the corner kicks, mixes in assisted shots and ranks fourth on the team in shot volume.
Joan Jordan 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 26 shots, 83 crosses.
Other Options: Tomas Vaclik (DraftKings $9,200), Jordi Masip (DraftKings $4,200), Sergio Reguilon (DraftKings $8,200).