Welcome to MLS DFS for July 20 (7/20/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
MLS Odds Report
Philadelphia Union (+165) vs. Orlando City (+145), O/U 3
The MLS DFS Breakdown
This MLS showdown features the Philadelphia Union against Orlando City. Both offenses rank above average in the MLS eastern conference with six total goals in four games a piece. The defenses have also been solid with Orlando allowing a goal a game and the Union allowing 1.5 goals a game. The odds makers have this game tightly contestant and I see it as a draw 2-2. The offensive weapons on both sides should be able to break through. If you go back to last season, Orlando has a bottom tier defense and I do not expect them to continue being a solid front with no real defending additions to the back line. Philadelphia’s defense is pretty on par with there last year numbers but I still cannot see them shutting out Nani or Mueller.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Kacper Przybylko (DraftKings $14,700)
Brendon Aaronson (DraftKings $11,400)
Jamiro Monteiro (DraftKings $12,900)
Kacper Przybylko is the shot leader for the Union and sits in the top-20 in the MLS. His on target accuracy is 60% making him the goal hunting option on the Union side. The concern is his price, which makes it hard to fill the flex with offensive weapons form both teams. If you go back to last year, he led the Union in shot volume and scoring by almost double the next active player.
Jamiro Monteiro and Brendon Aaronson share set pieces and it is yet unclear who will dominate to me the role vacated form last season as they evenly split those as well behind Mendujamin. Aaronson brings savings, won tackles and occasional shot volume. Dating back to last year, there shot volume was close with Monteiro being the far more accurate shooter. In GPP I would split the shares between them, but in a SE or Cash I would slot them in the Flex.
Kacper Przybylko 2019-2020 stats: 1 goal, 10 shots.
Jamiro Monterio 2019-2020 stats: 4 shots assisted, 13 crosses.
Brendon Aaronson 2019-2020 stats: 4 shots assisted, 10 crosses.
Chris Mueller (DraftKings $12,300)
Chris Mueller ranks in the top-15 in shot volume in the MLS and is 58% accurate on his shots. He takes set pieces for Orlando and can win tackles and draw fouls. I like him over Nani at the position because of the price discount. Mueller is contributing on 66% of Orlando City’s overall scoring in this small sample size.
Chris Mueller 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 12 shots.
Nani (DraftKings $10,800)
Nani does a lot for Orlando and will garner the most ownership at the captain spot. That plus the price tag makes me pivot him to the flex. He is a core play with 33% goal involvement. He provides a solid floor as well with assisted shots, drawn fouls and crosses from open play. Last season he led Orlando in scoring and shot volume so the upside is there in goal involvement. Nani also takes PK for Orlando.
Nani 2019-2020 stats: 1 goal, 6 assisted shots, 7 crosses.
Alejandro Bedoya (DraftKings $6,800)
Alejandro Bedoya can contribute in a number of ways for the Union. Shots, assisted shots, won tackles, and interceptions are just the floor for him. I like him in the flex because his return to last year form is due, but not being able to tell when I am hesitant in captaining him. If you go back to last season Bedoya contributed with the second highest active crossing volume from the Union’s current squad and did it all through open play. Only Kai Wagner had a higher volume form open play.
Other Options: Kai Wagner (DraftKings $6,200), Dom Dwyer (DraftKings $6,400), Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $5,600). Junior Urso (DraftKings $4,600)