Welcome to MLS DFS for July 27 (7/27/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
MLS Odds Report
Seattle Sounders (+270) vs. LAFC (-120), O/U 3.5
The MLS DFS Breakdown
This MLS showdown features the Seattle Sounders taking on LAFC in an elimination game. Seattle comes in with one of the better defenses in the MLS, allowing less than a goal a game, while LAFC is struggling on defense allowing 2.12 goals per game and relying heavily on their offense. That is an offense that leads the MLS in goals at 26 and shot volume of 102 in just eight matches played. Seattle’s offense ranks eight in shot volume. Both teams rank first and second overall in expected goals per ninety minutes at around 2.3.
I expect LAFC to edge out Seattle in what looks to be a high scoring affair 3-2 and will look to target the over 3.5 at plus money return.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Diego Rossi (DraftKings $15,600)
Brian Rodriguez (DraftKings $13,800)
Diego Rossi sits second overall in the MLS in shot volume and hits the target 59% of the time. He sits first in overall scoring and the price on DraftKings is still reflecting Carlos Vela as the main offensive attack, though he is not with the team. Rossi needs goals or he can disappear quickly from the game, but in an elimination game I expect him to be firing at will.
Brian Rodriguez is fifth in shot volume and hits target 31.5% of the time. He provides a safer floor, ranking fifth in the MLS in crossing volume and controls set piece shares for LAFC. For goal hunting, Rossi always brings brace upside, but for consistency and goal involvement upside Rodriguez is my preferred captain pick.
Diego Rossi 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 22 shots.
Brian Rodriguez 2019-2020 stats: 3 assists, 19 shots, 32 crosses.
Nicolas Lodeiro (DraftKings $18,600)
Nicolas Lodeiro comes at a high ask, but he does a lot for Seattle. He sits top-30 in the MLS in crossing volume and with Joao Paulo out he takes over full set piece control. Lodeiro can add to his floor with assisted shots and shot volume of 4.66 per game. His less than impressive two games in the tournament have come against two higher ranked defensive teams and LAFC weak defense should allow for more volume out of Loderio. In GPP, you can get over the field with limited shares as the price should keep his ownership low, but he serves as a contrarian play in a SD that should feature goals and a possible upset.
Nicolas Loderio 2019-2020 stats: 1 goal, 7 shots, 19 crosses.
Bradley Wright-Phillips (DraftKings $7,200)
Bradley Wright-Phillips is showing no signs of ware on the aging body, scoring in each game while replacing Carlos Vela. He needs goals but has not really shown his own creation ability, which is a product of the offense, and his minutes concern me but Like him in the flex. He compliments well with Rodriguez and Rossi and his 100% on target shooting gives confidence in keeping the goal scoring streak going.
Bradley Wright-Phillips 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 6 shots.
Raul Ruidiaz (DraftKings $8,600)
Jordan Morris (DraftKings $8,200)
Raul Ruidiaz has struggled to find the back of the net, but I like his chances in this match up. The volume is there with 3.8 shots per game on the season, and ranking fourth in the MLS in shot volume. He brings brace upside and can provide a decent floor in shot volume and assisted shots.
Like Wright-Phillips, Jordan Morris comes with the minutes concern. He has a shot and assisted shot average of 3.4 per game on the year and 40% on target shooting in a favorable match up. Morris also is contributing on 41% of Seattle’s overall scoring in the short season.
Raul Ruidiaz 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 19 shots.
Jordan Morris 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 10 shots.
Latif Blessing (DraftKings $7,600)
Mark-Anthony Kaye (DraftKings $5,200)
Latif Blessing does not need scoring to hit value as he is active on both ends of the pitch. He averages 3 won tackles and interceptions per game and 2.2 drawn fouls per game. With 2.2 assisted shots per game his upside comes from primary or secondary assists.
Mark-Anthony Kaye shares the midfield with Blessing and also produces on both ends of the pitch. He averages 2 won tackles a game and 3 shots and assisted shots per game. He comes discounted from the rest of the LAFC attack but pushes up offensively and also brings upside in goal involvement, while allows salary relief to pay up for the attack.
Latif Blessing 2019-2020 stats: 4 assists, 11 shots assisted, 11 fouls drawn.
Mark-Anthony Kaye 2019-2020 stats: 1 goal, 6 shots, 9 assisted shots.
Other Options: Kelvin Leerdam (DraftKings $4,800), Christian Roldan (DraftKings $6,000), Diego Palacios (DraftKings $5,600).