Welcome to MLS DFS for July 28 (7/28/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
MLS Odds Report
Portland Timbers (-134) vs. FC Cincinnati (+325), O/U 2.5
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The MLS DFS Breakdown
This MLS showdown features Portland coming in as favorites against FC Cincinnati. Offensively both teams are not explosive, with Portland seventh lowest in the MLS in shot volume and Cincinnati eight lowest. Portland is mid-tier with an expected goals of 6.1, while Cincinnati is sixth worst in the MLS at 5.2. Portland holds the advantage defensively, as they allow the seventh-lowest shot volume on target, while Cincinnati allows the seventh most.
I think Portland will take this game with ease 2-0. The best performances Cincinnati has had are to an Atlanta team stripped of it’s star player and a NYRB team that is a shell of its former self.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
Diego Valeri (DraftKings $18,300)
Sebastian Blanco (DraftKings $19,200)
Diego Valeri is in the top 30 in crossing volume in the MLS and controls set pieces for Portland. He is contributing on 50% of Portland’s overall scoring and averages 3.4 shots and assisted shots per game. Sebastian Blanco ranks among the crossing leaders as well but does it through open play. He is not shy to shoot and is averaging four shots and assisted shots per game. I will have both of these two locked in all lineups, much like yesterday with Rossi and Rodriguez. I like splitting the Captain ownership between the two with a bit more on Valeri given the set piece dominance and price discount.
Diego Valeri 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 6 shots, 17 crosses.
Sebastian Blanco 2019-2020 stats: 12 shots, 21 crosses, 7 fouls drawn.
Other Options: Jeremy Ebobisse (DraftKings $17,100), Yuya Kubo (DraftKings $14,100).
Haris Medunjanin (DraftKings $5,800)
Frankie Amaya (DraftKings $5,600)
Haris Medunjanin offers salary relief for those looking to pay up for Valeri and Blanco. He takes the set piece shares for Cincinnati and can contribute with an average of 3.2 interceptions and won tackles per game. Frankie Amaya can contribute on the defense as well, averaging 4.4 won tackles and interceptions per game. The concern with Amaya is his overaggressiveness, which might run a yellow card risk, a death sentence in showdown soccer.
Steve Clark (DraftKings $8,600)
Przemyslaw Tyton (DraftKings $5,000)
Steve Clark is priced up but hard to fade. It is hard to see Portland’s style of play putting up three or four goals on Cincinnati, so I am looking to fit Clark in with the top two guys I like from Portland in at least half my lineups. Przemyslaw Tyton comes with a lot more risk and I fully expect him to allow goals. What I like about him is he is a solid keeper, so he will make saves and comes cheap. I am not a fan of running the keepers together, but It happens to be optimal every so often, and this game could shape up that way. Tyton comes with more risk to be blown up but needs far less to pay off his value in a game featuring two teams that are not trigger-happy on offense.
Adrien Regattin (DraftKings $4,800)
Adrien Regattin comes in pretty much cheap and provides upside with shot volume and assisted shots of 2.2 per game. His floor can be built through open play crosses, and at this price he does not need much to hit value with upside in goal involvement if Cincinnati can squeeze one by the Portland defense.
Other Options: Marco Farfan (DraftKings $3,600), Diego Chara (DraftKings $3,800), Yimmi Chara (DraftKings $9,200), Mathieu Deplagne (DraftKings $4,400).