Welcome to EPL DFS for Nov. 30. Here, you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three-max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
Leicester City (-200) vs. Fulham (+550), O/U 2.5
West Ham United (+135) vs. Aston Villa (+187), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Nov. 30
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield
Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $9,500 FanDuel $23)
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $21)
Jamie Vardy comes into this matchup against a Fulham club that has the fifth-best expected goals against on the road in the EPL. Leicester has the forth-lowest expected goals at home. The asking price is high, but I still like Vardy to find the back of the net with limited options in this two-game slate. Vardy averages 2.25 shots per game and is contributing on 52% of his club’s overall scoring. He needs a goal to pay off the asking price, but the Leicester penalty man is finding the target at a top-five accuracy clip in the EPL.
Ollie Watkins mans the front line for an Aston Villa squad that struggles on the road with four expected goals, placing them third worst in the EPL. They battle West Ham, which is fourth best in expected goals against at home. Watkins leads his club in scoring and averages 2.25 shots per game with 50% on-target accuracy. He comes in $2,000 cheaper than Vardy and adds the element of assisted shots to his value at 1.37 per game.
On the other side of the pitch, If Michail Antonio returns, he is a solid pivot off Vardy or a pay -p pivot from Watkins. If he does not, Sebastian Haller would be the go-to mix with Watkins. The difference between Haller and Watkins comes down to which team you fancy to pull off the win.
Jack Grealish (DraftKings $8,800 FanDuel $19)
Youri Tielemans (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $14)
Jack Grealish comes into this game way too cheap given the injury to Ross Barkley. He already had a high floor built off 5.5 shots/assisted shots and 4.5 drawn fouls per game. With Barkley off sets, Grealish will consume a good amount, and I like his 3.12 crosses per game to increase. Even in a low-scoring affair, Grelish’s output will surpass this asking price, and his upside comes in his mix of goal involvement of 50%.
James Maddison runs the sets for Leicester City, and Youri Tielemans fills in when Maddison is unavailable. Maddison is a great option, but Tielemans finds ways to get involved and offers salary relief. He can draw fouls and builds a floor through interceptions and accurate shots. I would reserve him to a GPP option, and if I was to jam in high-priced studs, I would look to pay down to Trezeguet.
Other Options: Tom Cairney (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $11), Trezeguet (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $16), Aleksandar Mitrovic (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $15).
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $7,000 FanDuel $15)
Aaron Cresswell does not rely on scoring, which is a plus in a game that looks to be a tight defensive battle. He averages 6.22 open-play crosses and two assisted shots per game. West Ham will look to keep possession at home and limit the Aston Villa attack’s chances. Cresswell plays a pivotal role in the offense on the back wing, and the upside comes from his teammates converting on his accurate open-play crosses into the box.
Other Options: Matt Target (DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $10), James Justin (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $14).
Goalkeeper
Kasper Schmeichel (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $13)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings $4,600 FanDuel $9)
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