Welcome to UEFA Champions League Daily Fantasy Sports coverage for Tuesday, May 4. Here you’ll find our top UCL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. We will cover all aspects of the slate including projections, pricing and ownership percentages across soccer DFS. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel Champions League tournaments and cash games.
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UCL Odds Report
Manchester City (-153) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (+375) | Total: 3.5 goals
UCL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | May 4
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
UCL DFS Picks: Captain
Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $15,900, FanDuel: $15)
Neymar (DraftKings: $16,200, FanDuel: $14)
In the final leg of this Champions League semifinal, Manchester City holds the 2-1 aggregate. The host has two away goals, so Paris Saint-Germain will need to match and surpass if they concede. Both offenses rank in the top five in the Champions League in shot volume (Manchester City 13.6 per game, Paris Saint-Germain 11.4 per game) and in expected goals (Manchester City 1.78 per game, Paris Saint-Germain 1.81 per game). This projects to be a high-scoring affair, and Manchester City is favored to advance to the finals.
Kevin De Bruyne does it all for Manchester City, with set-piece control and penalties. In recent matches across all competitions, he has deferred some shares to Riyad Mahrez, with a PK and direct free kick resulting in two goals. De Bruyne still provides the highest floor due to open-play metrics. He leads his club in assists and contributes on 22.8% of their overall scoring despite missing a handful of matches. He averages 3.63 shots and 6.79 crosses per match. De Bruyne adds extra value on FanDuel with his 6.18 scoring chances created per match, which doubles the closest teammate.
Neymar handles set shares and penalties for the visitors. He will see an uptick in metrics, as the visitors push to score quickly. Neymar averages 4.41 shots and 5.59 crosses per match. He splits corner sets with Angel Di Maria, who leads PSG with 6.58 crosses per match across all competitions. Neymar brings the added element of 4.72 drawn fouls per match, which boost his floor.
Angel Di Maria (DraftKings: $13,200, FanDuel: $10)
Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings: $13,500, FanDuel: $12)
These two are the highly owned, high-floor plays. The issue with captaining them is the price. It is hard to fit enough offensive output if captaining them. They are absolutely must-have shares for multiple lineups or cash games, but there is not too much leverage in a GPP.
Both Riyad Mahrez and Angel Di Maria have set shares and provide salary relief. The preference really comes down to which team is favored to win the match. Di Maria creates 6.10 scoring chances and 2.75 shots per match. Mahrez averages 2.71 shots and 3.71 scoring chances per match. The price is close enough that Mahrez is preferred given his shot volume with De Bruyne and Phil Foden on the pitch, which is north of three per match. His open-play crosses still offer a floor with the scoring upside. On FanDuel Di Maria sees his shot volume fall under two per match with the distributions given to Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. His chances created still allow him to build upside in the assist department to complement his crossing volume floor.
UCL DFS Picks: Flex
Marquinhos (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel: $9)
Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings: $6,600, FanDuel: $7)
It is time to get creative, with all the ownership hovering over the above players plus Foden and Mbappe. Marquinhos and Ilkay Gundogan come in cheap. This is likely due to recent form and inconsistent performances.
Marquinhos averages just 0.63 shots per match from the center back spot. He has just two goals in Ligue 1 this season and is a solid one-off in a heavy-attack Manchester City stack. Marquinhos averages 2.43 won tackles/interceptions per match, which see an uptick to three when facing comparable opponents. The reason for consideration is that he comes up in big moments; twice this year he has found the back of the net, one being by way of a headed corner kick. This pattern has continued from last season’s Champions League where he headed a couple in big moments.
Gundogan disappeared altogether in the first leg. He serves as a GPP ownership play given recent form. Gundogan is still Manchester City’s leader in overall scoring and is fourth in shot volume at 2.17 per match.
Other Options: Marco Verratti (DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $8), Joao Cancelo (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $10), Keylor Navas (DraftKings $4,800), Ederson (DraftKings $7,000).
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