Welcome to UCL DFS for Nov 3. Here you’ll find our top UCL DFS picks all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three-max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
UCL Matchups + Odds
RB Salzburg (+700) vs. Bayern Munich (-305), O/U 3
Manchester City (-500) vs. Olympiacos (+1,300), O/U 3.5
Atalanta (+220) vs. Liverpool (+110), O/U 3.5
Real Madrid (-125) vs. Inter (+320), O/U 3.5
Fc Midtjylland (+310) vs. Ajax (-132), O/U 3
Fc Porto (-108) vs. Marseille (+310), O/U 2.5
The UCL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
UCL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield
Robert Lewandowski (DraftKings $11,200 FanDuel $23)
Kingsley Coman (DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel $20)
RB Salzburg have shown an impressive defense in the Austrian league, allowing less than a goal a game. If you dig into the Champions League matches, it is another story. They have yet to concede fewer than two goals against formidable opponents. Now enter the Bundesliga highest-scoring offense with 17.5 expected goals for and an expected goals differential of +9.10. Bayern will prove to be too much, even on the road, where they have posted four straight two plus goals.
Robert Lewandowski is hard to fit but brings brace upside to any match. He is averaging 5.4 shots per game with 48.1% accuracy. The Polish international looks hungry for his first Champions League goal of the campaign after his current Bundesliga run of an average of two goals per game.
Kingsley Coman also sees his price jump but should be active after seeing his primary role during these Champions League matches with the return of Serge Gnabry. While he failed to score in his last outing, he posted a brace against one of the better defensive squads in Atletico Madrid. He is averaging two shots a game and gets a bump if Gnabry sits this one out, coming back from injury. If Gnabry is starting in this one, I like dropping to his $7,000 price tag, or for GPP as a contrarian stack to go with Coman and Gnabry and leave off Lewandowski because one goal will not hurt you. Beware the risk of fading Lewandowski as always.
Antony (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $14)
David Neres (DraftKings $4,700 FanDuel $15)
No Dusan Tadic, no problem for the Dutch top flight club. Ajax is a breeding ground for youth talent, and it will take full effect against the Danish struggling club Midtjylland. The once defensive squad is allowing 1.57 goals a game in the Superliga. They also imploded against Atalanta and Liverpool with an expected goals against of 2.85. Now, Ajax is not either of those teams, especially missing Tadic, but they have enough to get it done.
Antony and David Neres look to carry the load for Ajax. Antony is finding the back of the net in 57% of his starts, and averaging 2.57 shots per game with 38.9% on-target accuracy. He adds to his value with 1.14 drawn fouls and three crosses per game. His elder former Sao Paulo alum, Neres, looks to follow up on his 50% scoring from a season ago. Neres is averaging 1.4 shots per game and adding a few crosses and drawn fouls along the way. Neres provides salary relief to pay up for the big attack of Bayern, Liverpool and Manchester City. I would also add Lassina Traore because of his offensive activity on the wing and 30 goals in 50 starts the last three years.
Sadio Mane (DraftKings $8,000 FanDuel $19)
Kareem Benzema (DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel $22)
Duvan Zapata (DraftKings $8,900 FanDuel $17)
Goals take down GPPs, and braces brake the slate. We have a few options in plus matchups to score, which come at discounts from Lewandowski. Sadio Mane continues his assault on the EPL and sees a road test against Atalanta. Atalanta does not impose a strong defense and prefers to outscore its opposition. This Champions League clash of firepower could see the most goals and the likes of Alejandro Gomez and Mohamed Salah should also be involved. Mane averages 3.5 shots, 3.66 chances created and 3.5 fouls drawn per game.
Kareem Benzema will be leaned on to carry the offensive workload for Real Madrid as they look to put their group stage opening draw behind them. He is contributing on 50% of the club’s overall scoring on the season and is coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons. He needs the goal to hit value and has a home match against Inter Milan, who has allowed two or more goals in five of eight matches across all competitions.
On the other side of the Liverpool – Atalanta match, we have Duvan Zapata. Zapata recorded three goals in two Champions League matches, though one was against Midtjylland. Liverpool is the second-worst defense in the EPL on the road, with an expected goals against of 6.2. If you look at two of their most recent away matches, they allowed 1.35 expected goals against. Zapata averages 2.33 shots, 3.5 scoring chances and sneaky brace upside.
Other Options: Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings $10,900, FanDuel $22), Alejandro Gomez (DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $20), Luis Diaz (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $14), Joshua Kimmich (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $16), Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $20), Diogo Jota (DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $17), Eden Hazard (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $5).
UCL DFS Picks: Defender
Sergio Ramos (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $15)
Daley Blind (DraftKings $3,800 FanDuel $12)
We have top options below, but their ownerships will rightfully be high. Sergio Ramos will continue to get overlooked on DraftKings given his center back role and unfavorable price. He is the PK man for Madrid and pushes up the offense for shot attempts and corner headers. He comes with yellow card risk due to his over aggression, but he will call rank and take it upon himself to see a victory for Real.
Daley Blind looks to be playing in the midfield for the depleted Ajax squad. If Nicolas Tagliafico is out, Blind could slide to the wing back position, where he is also a solid option with offensive involvement and shot attempts. If he falls back to center back, I would stay off him.
Other Options: Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $14), Marcelo (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $14), Lucas Hernandez (DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $10), Aleksandar Kolarov (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $13), Noussair Mazraoui (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $10).
UCL DFS Picks: Goalkeeper
Agustin Marchesin (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $11)
Jose Sa (DraftKings $3,600 FanDuel $7)
Kjell Scherpen (DraftKings $5,400 FanDuel $5)
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