Welcome to UCL DFS for Oct. 27. Here you’ll find our top picks all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three-max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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UCL Odds Report
Atletic Madrid (-139) vs. Red Bull Salzburg (+350), O/U 2.5
Borussia Monchengladbach (+260) vs. Real Madrid (-111), O/U 3.5
FC Porto (-125) vs. Olympiacos (+350), O/U 2.5
Marseille (+650) vs. Manchester City (-250), O/U 3.5
Atalanta (-105) vs. Ajax (+230), O/U 3.5
Liverpool (-625) vs. FC Midtjylland (+1,200), O/U 3.5
The UCL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $9,000 FanDuel $19)
Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings $10,900 FanDuel $22)
Manchester City should have their captain Kevin De Bruyne back for this Champions League matchup. Marseille is sporting the fourth-worst defense in Ligue 1 with an expected goals against of 12.9. With the Manchester City front line coming in at a high price tag, I like the leverage play.
De Bruyne ranks top 15 in crossing volume in the EPL and is averaging 2.75 shots per game with 36.4% on-target accuracy. He is creating seven scoring chances per game and adding to value with 1.25 drawn fouls and 2.25 won tackles per game. His upside is in goal involvement, and he has contributed in his club’s goal scoring in 89% of his games played going back to last year.
Raheem Sterling is always a scoring threat and often overlooked because of the price tag. He is averaging 2.4 shots per game and is scoring in 57% of his starts for the club dating back to last season. He is a brace threat and should get an increase shot volume with the absence of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus. You can also add Phil Foden or Riyad Mahrez for goal involvement upside in GPPs.
Mathieu Valbuena (DraftKings $9,200 FanDuel $16)
FC Porto is coming in as a slight favorite against Olympiacos. Mathieu Valbuena does it all for Olympiacos and could go overlooked with attention on the front of Atalanta, Ajax, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Manchester City. I expect this to be one of the lower-scoring games, but Valbuena can produce without scoring. An interesting stat line is that Porto is the second-highest fouling team in Ligue 1. They average 18.6 fouls per game, which also trumps all the clubs on this slate by over 20 fouls. Atalanta and Atletico Madrid come closest with around 15.2 per game.
Valbuena is the set-piece man for his club, and the crossing volume should pile up. He contributed on 35% of his clubs overall scoring and contributes with assisted shots, drawn fouls and chances created.
Diogo Jota (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $17)
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $5,800 FanDuel $16)
Liverpool sees one of Denmark’s top clubs in this Champions League clash, the same Midtjylland club that was destroyed by Atalanta by four goals last week. There is no doubt Liverpool possesses the firepower to match the Atalanta performance, despite close victories in their last few games. Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah come in sub $9,000 and are solid options. I like to have a different approach to the club with the highest expected goals for in the EPL.
Diogo Jota has been a welcomed addition to the club and his output warrants a higher tag. He trails just Mane and Salah in scoring for the club, also trailing them in games played. Jota averages 2.25 shots per game with a few crosses and chances created. If we get a surprise sit for Mane or Salah, Jota becomes a core play for me. As of now he is a solid GPP play.
Roberto Firmino has put his scoring woes from a season ago behind him. He trails Mane and Salah in shot volume and comes in cheap enough for the scoring upside. Like with Jota, If Mane or Salah sit, I like his increased volume upside.
Other Options: Duvan Zapata (DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $19), Karim Benzema (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $22), Luis Suarez (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $18), Alejandro Gomez (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $20), Jonas Hofmann (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $15), Dusan Tadic (DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $18).
Sergio Ramos (DraftKings $4,400 FanDuel $15)
Ramy Bensebaini (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $13)
Goals take down tournaments, and two defenders on this slate are their clubs’ leading PK men. Sergio Ramos comes with the risk of a high foul count and is no stranger to yellow and red cards. The prize is not favored for a center back. The difference is Ramos likes to find himself playing offense and is the highest point attacker of Real’s crosses from the corner. The shifty front line of Real can draw penalties left and right, and that makes Ramos worth the risk despite the rock-bottom floor he brings to the table.
Ramy Bensebaini also takes PKs for his club and is a little safer at the wing back position. He contributed on Gladbach’s overall scoring in 42% of the games he played a season ago. He is not shy to shoot like Ramos and can draw fouls, win tackles and intercept passes in bunches.
Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $14), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $15), Daley Blind (DraftKings $3,100, FanDuel $12), Renan Lodi (DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $14), Robin Gosens (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $11).
Ederson (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $13)
Jose Sa (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $12)
Jan Oblak (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $11)
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