UEFA Champions League Fantasy Breakdown – Tuesday, Matchday 1 (FREE)

Welcome to the first UEFA Champions League (UCL) Article for Matchday 1! (which will be FREE! for the time being) It’ll consist of a comprehensive game breakdown for each team, as well as an overall diagnosis of the slate ahead for both your main, and tournament builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel. 

We’ve got great soccer content each and every week here at Awesemo, so stay up to date on it all by following @Stokastic_Com & @tristanhoh on Twitter!

Very solid prize pool for this weeks slate, don’t miss out on Awesemo+ any longer! Sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best daily fantasy player’s projections and rankings.

Soccer DFS Scoring

For those of you who are relatively new to soccer DFS, here’s a bit of information to guide you to better understanding how the game works, at least for fantasy purposes:

I’ll refer to ‘set pieces’ quite often. The players who take those are the holy grail in soccer DFS. Set pieces in soccer DFS are the equivalent to receptions in NFL DFS or rebounds/assists in NBA DFS (AKA peripherals).

Players who have a role on corner kicks and/or free kicks (set pieces) can easily accumulate crossing points, as well as the newly added shot assisted. A team’s designated set piece taker will also typically be one of the more creative/attacking minded players on a given team. I can dive into a deeper analysis of the scoring system at a later date, but in the meantime, I hope this brief introduction helps a little bit!

DFS Content Survey

Also, please fill out the quick 4 question survey above if you have a chance, especially if you’re new to soccer DFS.

*Updates posted at the bottom*

Match Breakdowns

Liverpool (+130) @ Napoli (+210) – OU 2.5 (-150 over)

Core Options: 

Liverpool: We saw these two meet up in last season’s Champions League campaign, with the home side winning 1-0 in each match. Liverpool were only able to muster up 4 shots in Italy, not getting any on target. This was a surprise, of course, with the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino up top. The trio may struggle again, but as slight favorites, they have to strike you as strong GPP options. With relatively low floors coupled with their prices, the trio won’t be building blocks by any means. Trent Alexander-Arnold is the only other viable Red in my eyes. He’s been great this season, in charge of most of their set pieces. Other defenders are better per dollar, but TAA will retain his high floor in any matchup.

Napoli: Carlo Ancelotti has done a fine job in charge of Napoli, finishing 2nd in Serie A last season. They were very unlucky last season, having been stuck in a group with both PSG and Liverpool. They’ll have higher hopes this time around, but in this particular spot, it’s hard to get behind any of their attackers. I could easily see Dries Mertens or Lorenzo Insigne bagging a goal or two at sub 10%, but against Liverpool on a 6 game Champions League slate, how much can you commit to them? Jose Callejon and Faouzi Ghoulam will share set pieces.

KRC Genk (+480) @ Red Bull Salzburg (-190) – OU 3.0 (-140 over)

Core Options: Zlatko Junuzovic, Erling Braut Haaland, Dominik Szoboszlai

Genk: In the same group as Liverpool and Napoli, Genk are not expected to qualify further. But that won’t stop them from trying. A very respectable team in Belgium, they’ve got some good players. Ianis Hagi is an uber talented teenager, and whilst he probably doesn’t start, he’s still worth keeping your eye on. Patrik Hrosovsky just transferred to KRC Genk. He hasn’t played enough to know whether or not he’s on set pieces, but it’s very possible he is. If he’s not, it’ll be Bryan Henyen – a defensive midfield staple. He won’t be the most exciting player to roster in the world, but it could easily pan out. Leading scorer Mbwana Samatta (5) is doubtful, but with goals expected in this match, you could look to Paul Onuachu or Dieumerci Ndongala for a cheap goal at sub 5%.

Salzburg: Expect high ownership here with RBS having the highest implied total on the slate, but the player pricing not reflecting such. There’s a lot of value to be had here, starting with Zlatko Junuzovic and Dominik Szoboszlai. ‘SZO’ is far too cheap at 3K flat. Each have a role on set pieces (Junuzovic takes more, but SZO still chips in at times), and they both play in attacking positions, naturally creating chances. The attacking tandem of Erling Braut Haaland (highest odds to score on the entire slate for $4,300 on DK), Hee Chan Hwang, and Takumi Minamino are all very fine options to boot. They’re rather goal dependent, but their stats in domestic play thus far are staggering through 5 matches (Haland – 11G, 4A, Hwang 4G, 6A, Minamino 3G, 1A). Obviously they won’t all be in the winning lineup. With the highest implied total on the slate though, it’s likely that the optimal has at least one piece. I don’t want to drag on about Salzburg too much longer, but the fullbacks – Andreas Ulmer especially – are just as much in play as the attackers.

FC Barcelona (+120) @ Borussia Dortmund (+220) – OU 3.0 (-140 over)

Core Options: –

Barcelona: Lionel Messi is doubtful to play, still working back from a calf injury, so Barcelona will rely on the attack of Luis Suarez, Antoine Griezmann, and Anssumane Fati. As always with Barcelona, everything flows through the front 3, as the midfielders and defenders don’t push forward. Dortmund’s defense has looked very suspect this season, so it’d be a shock if the Barcelona attack is held down.

Dortmund: The attack looks as crisp as ever, led by Paco Alcacer, Jadon Sancho, and captain Marco Reus. On home turf, they’ll look to shock a Barcelona team without Leo Messi. It’s a great time for them to take advantage. Whilst the defense may look suspect, the attack has been brilliant. Barcelona are a world class side though, and it’s tough to pick a winner in this one. Vegas expects both teams to score, but none of these guys have much of a floor. If looking for a Dortmund goal, Reus or Alcacer would be the way to go, while Sancho provides somewhat of a floor with some set pieces.

RB Leipzig (+170) @ SL Benfica (+165) – OU 2.5 (-130 over)

Core Options: Pizzi, Marcel Hastenberg

Leipzig: Known commodities for Leipzig, Timo Werner and Marcel Sabitzer, are both in fine form. If Leipzig score a few goals, I’m betting that those two are the ones doing the damage. Portugal isn’t the easiest place to play, and we could see a struggle by both sides to find their footing. We have to touch on Marcel Hasenberg, the main set piece taker. While it’s not the best spot, sub 4K on DraftKings is appealing with his defender eligibility.

Benfica: It’s all about Pizzi. He takes most, if not all of the set pieces (defender Alejandro Grimaldo chips in at times). He’s got 6 goals and 2 assists in domestic play thus far, along with creating 2.8 chances per game. For $6,500, it’s hard not to look at him heavily despite all the value at midfield. The aforementioned Grimaldo is in play, but it gets thin after that unless wanting a sub 5% stacking partner with Pizzi.

CF Valencia (+345) @ Chelsea (-120) – OU 2.5 (-125 over)

Core Options:

Valencia: Aside from the fact that Chelsea have conceded in every match they’ve played this season, there’s not much to like with Valencia. Dani Parejo stands out as value given his set piece monopoly and chance creation ability, but even he doesn’t inspire a ton of excitement. I’ll pass for the most part. Feel free to take a shot on Rodrigo Moreno – their best player & goal scorer – especially if you’re one of those people who hates Chelsea.

Chelsea: The front three is young, wild, and free under Lampard. Christian Pulisic should be back in the XI in place of Willian, even after the Blues stomped Wolves 5-2 on Saturday. I have high hopes for him in the coming months, but he’s probably a thin play on this particular slate. Tammy Abaham stamped his authority on Wolves with a classy hattrick. I think Chelsea score a goal or two and win this match, so he’s still very much in play, as is Mason Mount with his set piece monopoly.

LOSC Lille (+600) @ Ajax Amsterdam (-210) – OU 3.0 (+120 over)

Core Options: Hakim Ziyech

Lille: Lowest implied total on the slate, doesn’t inspire much hype to roster any of these Lille players on the road in Holland. Jonathan Bamba is the top player, and shares set pieces with a few other players, but rostering anyone here is probably not necessary.

Ajax: It’s a little surprising that Ajax aren’t favored by more. They are coming off of a season where they nearly made it to the UCL Final, and Lille are nothing too special. I do think we see Ajax struggle for a little bit, or maybe even a while in this match. Either way, Hakim Ziyech is an alpha player, and needs to be in your lineups. Dusan Tadic is another one to consider, with 5 goals in 5 domestic matches. He’ll be chalky, but deserves consideration considering he’s got slate breaking upside.

Final Thoughts (DK)

Here are three of my preferred options per position for a main build, followed two GPP ‘one off’ options.

Main Build:  Salah, Tadic, Haaland (F), Ziyech, Pizzi, Szoboszlai (M), Alexander-Arnold, Ulmer, Hastenberg (D)

GPP: Suarez, Hwang (F), Mount, Reus (M)

FanDuel

M/F Tier 1 ($$$) F/M: Ziyech, Salah, Tadic, Griezmann/Suarez

M/F T2 ($$) F/M: Hwang, Haaland, Pizzi, Alcacer/Reus, Abraham/Mount/Pulisic

M/F T3 ($) F/M: Minamino, Fati, Junuzovic, Szoboszlai

Defender: Underdog CB’s on the road tend to fare best in FD’s scoring format // Napoli D’s, Lille D’s. Honestly, you can probably settle for any two defenders who fit your build and fare fine.

Goalkeeper: Onana, Stankovic

My preferred route: Finding the right balance between the two favorites in Ajax / Salzburg will be the key. Mix in goal dependent players, since FD’s scoring system rewards that and only that. I’ll probably shoot for three players combined between Ajax and Salzburg, along with a one off player (Barcelona, Dortmund, Chelsea).

GW1 Bets

0-0 YTD / +0 units

1u Liverpool / Napoli BTTS and OVER 2.5 goals (-105)

1u Barcelona / Dortmund BTTS and OVER 2.5 goals (-125)

0.5u Dortmund ML (+210)

UPDATES

*updating around 2:15*

Liverpool/Napoli: No Ghoulam at fullback for Napoli, but everything else is as expected.

Genk/Salzburg: The doubtful Genk striker (Samatta) is starting. Everything else is as expected.

Barcelona/Dortmund: Barcelona lines up as expected, with 16 yr old Fati on the wing. Dortmund starts Thorgan Hazard, who may cut into the set piece share of Sancho/Guerreiro. He’s not a bad play in and of himself at 6.5.

Leipzig/Benfica: Everything is as expected aside from Klostermann not starting at fullback. Nothing changes with that news though.

Valencia/Chelsea: Willian starts in place of Pulisic. That hurts Mount’s set piece share a tad, but if you were on Mount before, don’t let that sway you off of him.

Lille/Ajax: Quincy Promes starts for Ajax, who split set pieces with Ziyech in the last domestic match. He’s viable in all formats, and Ziyech’s floor may be dinged down a little bit. Still the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate though. Renato Sanches isn’t the worst play at 4K flat for the underdog in Lille – may take some set pieces.

 

Thanks for reading!

Author

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.