UEFA Champions League Fantasy Breakdown – Tuesday, Matchday 2 (FREE)

Welcome one, welcome all! UEFA Champions League fantasy (UCL) is back in action Tuesday, for Matchday 2. It will consist of a comprehensive game breakdown for each team, as well as an overall diagnosis of the slate ahead for both your main and tournament builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We have great soccer content each and every week, so stay up to date on it all by following @Stokastic_Com & @tristanhoh on Twitter!

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UPDATES

PSG/Galatasaray: Icardi in for Mbappe is a like for like swap as striker. He’s good value for 6900 despite PSG’s odds continuing to drop (down to -190).

Bayern/Tottenham: Few updates to Bayern’s outlook, with Gnabry starting for Perisic. Still a GPP option as Perisic was. Alaba and Pavard are the fullbacks with Kimmich playing central. In my eyes, it hurts Kimmich’s value even more. Alaba/Pavard are slightly underpriced. For Spurs, Eriksen is not starting. It’ll be either Rose or Son on set pieces. Both of them deserve plenty of consideration now. Lamela and Eriksen have combined to take 39 of their 40 corners this season. Son took the other one, when Rose was not on the field. My guess is that Rose takes most.

Olympiacos/Red Star: Valbuena’s main man isn’t in for this one, so set pieces are up for grabs. OLY is opting to start a few new guys, so we can’t be sure who’s on set pieces, but my best guess is Benzia splitting with Tsimikas, with possibly Lovera or Masouras taking some as well. Red Star looks as expected. It’s also worth noting that Red Star have moved to slight favorites now. (OLY moves from +150 to +180). It’s going to be extremely tight though.

 Zagreb/Man City: Bernardo starts ahead of Sterling on the wing, and Gundogan comes into the XI. Gundogan and Mahrez now will split set pieces, which clearly hurts Mahrez a little, but he’s still elite. Gundogan has a decent outlook with his salary. The floor should be safe and he can always nick a cheap assist/goal.

Leverkusen/Juventus: Our guy Amiri isn’t starting, ugh. Demirbay will take all of the sets, makes for a decent enough floor play at sub 5K. Bernardeschi starts ahead of Ramsey on the Juventus side of the ball, but everything else is as expected.

Atletico/Lokomotiv: No Trippier for Atleti. That boosts the floor of both Koke, who should take all of the set pieces here. The upside is very much in question for Koke, but the floor should be there. Arias (Trippier’s replacement) isn’t the worst play for 4K flat. Lokomotiv lines up as expected.

Match Breakdowns

Paris Saint-Germain (-290) @ Galatasaray (+840) – OU 3.0 (EVEN over)

Core Options: Angel Di Maria

PSG: Still without Neymar, PSG travel to Turkey, a tough place to play. They get Kylian Mbappe back though, who will lead their line. With City in such a good spot, Mbappe is mainly a GPP differential option. He could easily pop off for a breakthough and no one would bat an eye. It’s a little concerning that the Parisians’ odds are dropping, down to -230, but we should still be considering Angel Di Maria, who has one of the safest floors on the slate sans Neymar. Marquinhos has little to no floor here, but he’s very cheap and plays in the midfield right now, though listed as a defender. He’s not the worst fish in the sea.

Galatasaray: At home, there’s a decent chance that Galatasaray hit the back of the net here. The most likely to do so is Radamel Falcao or Ryan Babel, but they still are no more than tournament darts. Younes Belhanda takes the majority of their set pieces. His salary is efficient, but the floor is safe for a value option. 

Bayern Munich (+115) @ Tottenham Hotspur (+230) – OU 3.0 (-105 over)

Core Options: Philipe Coutinho

Bayern: Two quality sides in theory generally leads to goals. Is that what we have on our hands here? It very well could be. Both teams scoring is a likely proposition. Philipe Coutinho’s set piece share continues to grow, as does his overall play in this system. He’s my favorite option per dollar here, all things considered. His growth hurts the floor of Joshua Kimmich. Kimmich is solid as always, but don’t expect crossing numbers today as his game log may suggest. The frontline of Robert Lewandowski, Ivan Perisic and Kingley Coman are overpriced in my eyes, but worth tournament ‘pick and choose’ exposure, as this game could shootout.

Tottenham: Spurs were able to get back on track in Premier League action with three much-needed points, even with an early red. The likes of Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son and Christian Eriksen remain the top options in this rather concentrated attack. Eriksen would be my favorite, with a near set piece monopoly with Erik Lamela out of favor in the starting lineup. Kane and Son remain goal-or-bust, with my lean towards Son. Serge Aurier was sent off with a red card Saturday, but assuming he gets the start again, his pace and power always make him a GPP option. His salary is slightly too low in my eyes, to boot.

Olympiacos (+150) @ Red Star Belgrade (+210) – OU 2.5 (+110 over)

Core Options: Marko Marin

Olympiacos: Belgrade is a tough place to play. The Serbian crowd gets extremely rowdy. Juice is on the under in this one, so automatically, I don’t feel great about the idea of rostering Olympiacos players. That said, there are a few who deserve some merit. The main man is Mathieu Valbuena, taking all of the set pieces, creating chances for fun, and even leading the squad in goals thus far. I’ll go elsewhere today, but he’s a quality player. Miguel Guerrero, Daniel Podence and Mateo Garcia are also expected to feature in the attack, making them fair GPP darts. My favorite exposure here though comes from defender Konstantinos Tsimikas, who whips in a decent number of crosses.

Red Star Belgrade: Belgrade probably know that they’re not moving on, but that won’t stop them from trying. This is the best opportunity they’ll get. Marko Marin makes for a play in all formats given his ability to contribute in all of the areas we care about for fantasy scoring. The other lads in attack will need goal involvement to pay any type of dividends as Olympiacos will make it hard on them in possession. It’ll be a tight affair, but both sides thinking they need a win may lead to more goals than we, and Vegas, are expecting.

Dinamo Zagreb (+3180) @ Manchester City (-1340) – OU 4.0 (-125 over)

Core Options: Riyad Mahrez, Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, Benjamin Mendy, Joao Cancelo

Zagreb: Not going here on a six-game slate, City will be far too powerful for them. The defense of the hosts has been a tad suspect at times. If you’re a born City hater, feel free to fire up Bruno Petkovic, Dani Olmo or Mislav Orsic. It won’t be something I’d do, but there are scripts in which City concede, no doubt. Both teams to score is just +125.

Man. City: You guys know the rules. City at home against a far inferior side, just don’t overthink things. Kevin de Bruyne being out is a hit to their attack overall, but they won’t have much of a problem bagging three or four. You need at least one attacker, preferably two in my eyes. Riyad Mahrez will be the man who takes over de Bruyne’s main set piece share. He’s been quality thus far and will likely continue to be. Kun Aguero and Raheem Sterling are right there as well despite Riyad having the safer floor. You likely cannot play all three, so choose wisely. Bernardo Silva should start in the deeper midfield role in place of de Bruyne. He is still extremely viable, but my preferred route are the front three. I’ll mention David Silva and the fullbacks as well, because you really can’t go wrong.

Bayer Leverkusen (+600) @ Juventus (-180) – OU 2.5 (-130 over)

Core Options: Nadiem Amiri, Cristiano Ronaldo

Leverkusen: The young German Nadiem Amiri has my attention, and with his price on DraftKings, he makes for decent salary relief. He’s been taking all of Leverkusen’s set pieces sans Leon Bailey and Kerim Demirbay in the XI. 3200 is far underpriced for his ability, having an extremely solid 0.62 xG+xA in domestic play. For reference, attacking mastermind Kevin de Bruyne for Manchester City slotted in with a 0.76 xG+xA last season. All that said, it’s a very sub optimal spot, against a very good Juventus side who enjoy keeping things tight. Kai Havertz is another name I’d fancy rostering, but I’ll leave that to more courageous men.

Juventus: As always, it’s all about Cristiano Ronaldo. Only -170, they aren’t anywhere near that of City. Can we pay the same price for CR7 as we are for the Citizens? Easy answer is of course. He’s shooting like a mad man and loves these Champions League nights. I haven’t toyed with construction much, but if multi-entering, exposure to this man is a must, but not a lock by any means. Gonzalo Higuain and Aaron Ramsey are cheap enough to reckon stacking partners with Ronaldo in tournaments.

Atletico Madrid (-150) @ Lokomotiv Moscow (+550) – OU 2.5 (+125 over)

Core Options: Kieran Trippier

Atletico: I have concerns for Atletico here. The line opened at -170 and has already fallen to -120. Moscow proved they have what it takes after beating Leverkusen in GW1. Atletico are bosses at managing these types of matches though. Kieran Trippier in a game his side may have to chase makes him my favorite target, but there are paths to him not hitting. He’s been sharing set pieces with Koke, and we love set pieces from the defender position. Joao Felix, Diego Costa and Alvaro Morata will be uber-contrarian, but low-owned for good reason. We’ve seen these clear alpha teams travel to Russia and handle business, which in theory would ease the outlook of exposure to Atletico. All things considered though, I’d tread carefully for the most part.

Lokomotiv: I was timid to roster Joao Mario against Leverkusen in GW1, but he did not disappoint with around 13 points, buoyed by an assist. Once again here, he makes for a fine floor play, in a similar vein to Galatasaray’s Belhanda. He’s the main set piece taker for his side and also chips in with other categories. Atletico is not a fun team to go against for upside purposes, but the price considered floor will be there.

Final Thoughts (DK)

Here are three of my preferred options per position for a main build, followed a GPP ‘one off’ option.

Main Build: City front three, Ronaldo, Di Maria (F), Coutinho, Marin, Amiri (M), Trippier, Cancelo, Mendy (D)

GPP: Tomané (F), Ramsey (M), Tsimikas (D)

FanDuel

M/F Tier 1 ($$$) Aguero, Ronaldo, Sterling, Mbappe

M/F T2 ($$) Mahrez, Coutinho, Rest of Spurs/Bayern Attack, City’s Silva’s

M/F T3 ($) Marin, Gundogan if in, Ramsey, Thiago

Defender: Centerbacks on the road as sizable underdogs tend to fare best in this scoring format / Mendy/Cancelo (only 8/10$ !!! — not great for this format but they should be fine for minimum price, with upside) Zagreb D’s, Leverkusen D’s, Galatasaray D’s

Goalkeeper: Ederson, Szczesny, Guilherme, Hradecky

My preferred route: You’ve got to start with 2 quality Citizens in my eyes. Goals are too important on this site and we can easily project them for the most on this slate. You could finagle in another City exposure with Bernardo/DSilva if you wanted to, but guys like Ramsey are there if needed.

 

Thanks for reading!

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