After one of the wildest and most controversial Kentucky Derby’s in history, we set our sights on Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore for the second leg of the Triple Crown an the Preakness Stakes. It’s basically unheard of that the winner of the Derby doesn’t come here to try and take the next step for the Triple Crown, but winner Country House isn’t in the field citing a cold/cough. A lot of other Derby horses have decided to rest up for Belmont instead of trying to get ready with this quick turnaround, so we have some new faces in the field. It does create a nice situation in the betting market as the race is wide open and we do not have 20 horses to deal with like the Derby.
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Once you’ve signed up, the next step is to analyze the field for this prestigious race.
The Horses (listed by post positions)
1: War of Will 4-1 – Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount here once again and after a bad trip in the Derby, which caused all the commotion and eventual disqualification of Maximum Security, the odds certainly seem to indicate he’s a serious threat. Breaking from the rail is far less of an issue with less traffic due to only 13 horses in this field. Price is a little short to me, but this is a horse who is primed to grab a piece of the board.
2: Bourbon War 12-1 –Irad Ortiz Jr is on Bourbon War who was not in the Derby field so this is the first time seeing him for a lot of people. He should be laying way back during the early parts of the race and will look to close as he is likely to come from off the pace. As I’ve said earlier, this is another horse who will benefit from reduced traffic, as the chances of being blocked are way less in a race like this than in the Derby.
3: Warrior’s Charge 12-1 – This is a huge step up for Warrior’s Charger and jockey Javier Castellano as this horse really hasn’t faced major competition in his career. In five starts they do have a pair of wins and have been in the money all five races, but again that’s a different situation than running in a race of this caliber. I’d expect them to try and set the pace and look to go wire to wire like Maximum Security did, but I don’t see that happening and will be looking elsewhere.
4: Improbable 5-2 – Mike Smith has come on board to ride Improbable who is most likely going to be the favorite come post time. He really didn’t threaten in the Derby despite coming in fourth and this horse has been a disappointment when you look at the hype that Baffert ‘brings with his entries. He is the horse to beat, but I think that speaks to the rest of the field’s lack of firepower more than Improbable’s abilities. Post position is fine and he should be sitting right off the lead just waiting for the right moment to make a move.
5: Owendale 10-1 – Another newcomer as Owendale was not in the Derby field and will have Florent Geroux aboard for this Preakness trip. Another horse who is facing a gigantic step up in competition so the recent form of two wins out of his last three should be taken with a grain of salt. He did win the Lexington Derby with a huge late rally and will need some of that magic here to get into the mix. He might be part of my exotic wagers with the ability to close late and I am a Geroux fan, but winning would be a big ask.
6: Market King 30-1 –Long shot entry who 58 year old jockey Jon Court is aboard and will need something special to make noise here. He is only 1 for 8 in terms of lifetime victories and was a non-factor in the Blue Grass stakes, so there aren’t a ton of positive signs for Market King. The odds are obviously going to entice some people after what we saw with Country House, but I see zero reason this horse grabs a piece of the board come Saturday.
7: Alwaysmining 8-1 –Another non-Derby horse who needs jockey Daniel Centeno to control the race and get him a clean start as he likes to set the pace. He has been able to do that lately reeling off three straight wins, but against horses that aren’t even close to the caliber of what he sees here. He is intriguing in the sense that he comes in hot and maybe this is a horse that is a sleeping giant, but we will find out Saturday as it will be a whole different ballgame in terms of getting and maintaining a lead.
8: Signalman 30-1 – Longshot who has been unimpressive in 2019 so he needs to find form fast if he wants to get in the mix here. Jockey is Brian Hernandez, Jr. and really nothing stands out about this horse and a reason why they are a contender in this field. Pass for me, will let other people chase an out of form and probably outclassed horse here.
9: Bodexpress 20-1 – Ran 13thin the Derby and did nothing to inspire much confidence, but they’ve decided to bring Bodexpress back for another shot here at the Preakness. Johnny Velazquez on the mount, but that’s about the only positive I can spin for a horse that is yet to win a race in their career. I don’t think the Preakness is the spot to get the first W and I doubt Bodexpress is a factor in this one.
10: Everfast 50-1 – Longest shot on the board so I will make this quick. This horse won their first race against garbage and has proceeded to lose their next nine starts and comes in without grabbing a sniff of the leaderboard in their last few starts. Was a non-factor in the Florida Derby and ran on Derby Day in the Pat Day Mile finishing outside the money in fifth place. No chance I use this horse in anything despite the alluring 50-1 + type odds you will get.
11: Laughing Fox 20-1 – Wasn’t in the Derby and doesn’t stand out, but this is my sleeper pick in this race. Steven Asmussen trains and Ricardo Santana, Jr. gets the mount for a horse who is coming off a win at Oaklawn park. Before that he finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby and seems to have some feast or famine with three wins in several starts but no second or third place finishes. Should be trying to come from off the pace and I think with the right setup in front of him we could see Laughing Fox get into the mix and make some noise here at a great price.
12: Anothertwistafate 6-1 – Good form for Anothertwistafate and jockey Jose Ortiz so that is a positive heading into the Preakness. The competition he has faced in races like the Lexington and Sunland Derbies do leave a little to be desired, but it’s never bad to be coming in off of two seconds and a win in your last three starts. The thing that stands out for this horse is that so far he hasn’t responded to the dirt very well and is actually winless on dirt tracks, which this obviously is. That’s a hurdle he will need to clear and has me a little skeptical despite some positive signs.
13: Win Win Win 15-1 –Really was high on him for the Derby like a lot of people and he was a let down, never getting into the mix and finishing middle of the pack. The closer breaks from the last post here and will try and get out quickly and dart over to the rail as its never an ideal situation to break from the last gate. I still am going to hang on with this horse as the lead up to the derby was impressive and the odds are more appealing against this field than what we saw against the 20 Derby horses and will look to him in some exotics and other multi horse wagers.
Final Thoughts
As I mentioned at the beginning a lot of the punch and excitement from the Preakness is to see the Derby champ try and take that next step to set up a potential Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes. We do not have that this year and that makes for a field that people won’t be overly excited about, but from a betting standpoint maybe they should be. This is a truly wide open race with Improbable being the favorite mostly on name recognition, and after him, it is anyone’s guess of who is the horse to beat. For me Improbable still is a tough out, but as I mentioned my sleeper pick is Laughing Fox who I think has potential to pull another big upset and him and Improbable make for a nice pairing in terms of exactas and other exotic type wagers this weekend.
Good luck everyone!
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