We have a Major on tap this week with the US Open set to take place at iconic Pebble Beach in California. Obviously, it’s an awesome week for PGA DFS and we have monster contests across all the major DFS sites so make sure to stay tuned for all the content we will be dropping breaking everything down for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!. However, we also have a great week to take a look at the betting markets and see what we can find in terms of value for the third Major of the year.
Futures / Outrights Winners
Justin Rose 25-1
First guy up for me is Justin Rose who has been a little frustrating at times this year due to spotty form, but there is no doubt the ceiling is still there for the winner of the 2013 US Open. Rose won earlier this year at the Farmers, and to me the odds are somewhat depressed due to the MC at the Masters this year and the fact Rose hasn’t been his consistent self of late. This is going to be a grind which won’t be a problem and at 25-1 he is in that second tier despite being in the top-tier of overall golfers in the world IMO.
Justin Thomas 28-1
Justin Thomas is back and healthy after the wrist injury forced him to miss the PGA Championship a few weeks back. He added the Canadian Open to his schedule and looked sharp in his second start back gaining a bunch of strokes tee to green and just being a little cold with the putter. This is a price play for me as JT has crazy firepower when he is on (Erin Hills, Saturday Round) and there is no doubt he is a threat despite the lack of experience playing at Pebble Beach. I expected his odds to be somewhere in the teens and similar to Rose I will gladly jump on him at 28-1.
Marc Leishman 80-1
Had to throw in one bomb and Marc Leishman is a guy that you are going to get a monster price on no matter where you are getting your odds from. The Aussie hasn’t done much at US Open’s so far in his career, but in Majors he does have three top-fives including losing in a playoff at the British Open in 2015. Certainly, he’s no stranger to wind or conditions where par is a great score and at 80-1, he is worth a sprinkle on the betting card. The big concern is the OTT game, but to me I’m more worried about him in the DFS market than in an outright type wager.
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Louie Oosthuizen -140 vs. Martin Kaymer
Before you immediately think Louie will lose the bet with the dreaded WD just know that if he doesn’t tee off, your bet is voided. In reality, I’m sure he will be ready to go and despite all his volatility he has found the weekend in five straight US Opens showing that he can handle brutal conditions like the ones they will see.
Martin Kaymer on the other hand is coming off an impressive showing at Memorial, but other than that it’s been a prolonged stretch of pretty poor golf from the former US Open Winner. He has lost consistently OTT and is an awful scrambler which could be a serious issue at a place like Pebble if the irons aren’t spot on. To me this price is banking on Kaymer using Memorial as a catalyst to improve the game and I think it’s a reasonable bet to assume he struggles here at Pebble in route to a quick exit.
Brandt Snedeker -105 vs. Shane Lowry
Both Sneds and Lowry played great up in Canada and if it wasn’t for Rory being an unstoppable rebel force it easily could have been one of them holding up the trophy. Sneds sets up well for Pebble with his ability to get hot with the putter and his known abilities to play in really tough conditions. The same can be said with Lowry (especially with bad weather), but I don’t exactly trust the 11.7 strokes gained with the ARG and Putter last week. The OTT issues will be magnified for both at a course like this, but with a virtual pick ’em line, so I will go with Sneds in this spot as I think he sets up just as well and trust his recent form a bit more than Lowry’s.
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Top English Player – Matthew Fitzpatrick 13-1
Lot of talent coming over from England with Rose, Fleetwood and Casey just to name a few, but Matthew Fitzpatrick sitting north of 10-1 to be the top Brit is intriguing. He is a short accurate driver of the ball which is perfect for Pebble and has made the cut each of the four times he’s played a US Open. He is an experienced wind player who has some quality finishes to his name in Majors and if he can thrive on Poa greens I expect another solid showing this week. Like I mentioned we obviously have some really talented British players, but at this price I’m willing to take a stab that Fitzy can find the weekend and get in position with a chance for a good finish come Sunday.
Good luck everyone!
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