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Horse Racing: Betting the Belmont Stakes Picks

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Horse Racing: Betting the Belmont Stakes - Picks

On Saturday, Belmont Park will host the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes to culminate the 2019 Triple Crown — the final big race of the year for all you casual horse racing fans. But, the racing card is way more than just the Belmont Stakes. In fact, Belmont Park will run 13 races on Saturday and 10 STAKES RACES! As usual, the Belmont Stakes will be the featured event, but the card that Belmont has put together is arguably one of the best we will see all year in horse racing other than the Breeders Cup. This means there are plenty of wagering opportunities to explore!

Before we dig deep into the options, did you know it is legal on a national level (with a few states as the exceptions) to bet on horse racing online. Click here for the full analysis.  For those new to horse betting or those just looking to capitalize on the legality of betting on horses online, we have partnered with TVG to offer our readers the following bonus deals:

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VERTICLE WAGERING

In my guide to betting on horse racing, I explain the basic betting guidelines for horse racing, and specifically, I explain horizontal wagering options (betting on one particular race). Horse racing also has options where you can bet on multiple races, or vertical wagering. Vertical wagering includes; Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, Pick 4s, Pick 5s, and Pick 6s. In vertical wagering the objective is to have the winner in every race in the sequence on your ticket.

As with horizontal wagering, the cost of your ticket is based on the total amount of combinations that you use multiplied by the cost of your ticket. So you don’t have to use just one horse in each race, however, the more horses you add to the ticket, the more expensive your ticket cost will be. For example, if you are betting a Daily Double (2 consecutive races) with a $2 minimum and only use 1 horse in each race it will cost you $2. But, if you wanted to use multiple horses in the first race your ticket cost would increase.

Example: Race 1 you like 3 different horses and Race 2 you like 2 different horses. This ticket would now cost you $12 (3 horses in Race 1 x 2 Horses in Race 2 x $2 cost of the wager amount)

(3 x 2 x $2 = $12).

This is the same scenario when constructing Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6 tickets. Obviously the costs of these tickets can get much higher as you add more races and more horses to your ticket.

ALL STAKES PICK 4 – $1.5 MILLION GUARANTEED (RACES 8 – 11)

On Saturday one of the best vertical wagers to dive into the pool is the All-Stakes Pick 4 with a pool guaranteed at $1.5 Million Dollars! The sequence includes 4 Grade 1 races, the top level stakes races in horse racing. The sequence includes the Woody Stephens Stakes, The Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile), The Manhattan Stakes, and The Belmont Stakes.

WOODY STEVENS STAKES GRADE 1 (RACE 8)

The Woody Stephens Stakes, like the Belmont Stakes, is restricted to three year old horses. But, the race is meant for horses that are known as sprinters. Just like the Olympics has marathons and 100 yard dashes, horse racing has different conditions for each race. The Woody Stephens is for the top three year old sprinters. It will be contested at a seven Furlong distance (in contrast the Belmont Stakes is 1.5 miles or 12 Furlongs), and 11 horses are entered.

Favorite: #9 Mind Control (5/2)

Mind Control is the logical favorite here as he one of only 2 horses in this field to have already won a Grade 1 Stakes Race (9/3/18 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga). Mind Control most recently won the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes and looms the one to beat in this field.

Top Contender: #4 Complexity (4-1)

Complexity is the other Grade one winning horse in this field and the Grade one Champagne Stakes was also contested at Belmont Park on October 6, 2018. Complexity is making his 3 year old debut in this race but his trainer Chad Brown has decent numbers with horses off long layoffs.

Price Play: #10 Lexitonian (15-1)

Lexitonian is coming off a win in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico on Preakness Day. If he comes off that performance he makes sense as a longshot winner.

Race Analysis: I believe this race is pretty wide open and in my pick 4 ticket I will be using several horses in this race. My top pick is #4 Complexity but this seems like it is a race where a big price could come in.

Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) Grade 1 (Race 9)

The Metropolitan Handicap, or more commonly known as the Met Mile is one of the most prestigious races outside of the Breeders Cup and Triple Crown. The Met Mile is for horses 3 years old and upward and this year’s field of 9 has standouts all over. This race is being built up as one of the best races so far this year.

Favorite: #2 McKinzie (5-2)

McKinzie enters the Met Mile with an impressive win in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs by 4 and ¾ lengths. In 10 lifetime starts McKinzie has won 6 races and finished second 3 times and has earned $1,483,560.

Top Contenders: #1 Coal Front (6-1), #3 Mitole (3-1), #4 Thunder Snow (5-1), #7 Firenze Fire (4-1)

Coal Front is consistent and likes to win. He has won 7 times in 9 starts. Comes off 3 consecutive wins. Mitole has been a win machine as of late with 6 straight trips to the winners’ circle. His last win comes in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Thunder Snow comes off an impressive win in the Dubai World Cup (his second time winning the prestigious race in Dubai). He should be a good price for a horse with tremendous talent. Firenze Fire loves Belmont park where he has won all 3 of his lifetime starts. Last start Firenze Fire won he Run Happy Stakes at Belmont Park on May 11th.

Race Analysis: This race is loaded with talented horses and you can make a case for more than half the field. I will make Thunder Snow my top pick but when playing multi-race exotic wagers such as the all-stakes pick 4 I will go deep here as well.

Manhattan Stakes Grade 1 (RACE 10)

The Manhattan Stakes is a Grade 1 stakes race run 1 mile and ¼ on the turf for horses 4 years old and upward. This year’s Manhattan has a field of 10 horses and the favorite #8 Bricks and Mortar is a true standout.

Favorite: #8 Bricks and Mortar (7-5)

Bricks and Mortar is super consistent and has won 4 straight races including the Grade 1 Turf Classic last start at Churchill Downs. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr has been aboard for all those wins and Trainer Chad Brown wins at a fairly high rate.

Other Contenders: #7 Olympico (6-1), #10 Channel Maker (9-2)

Olympico is also trained by Chad Brown and is coming off a win in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park (his first time running for Chad Brown). His numbers make sense and if he runs as well as he did last start he could beat his stablemate.Channel Maker is coming off a nose victory in the Grade 1 Man O’War Stakes at Belmont Park. Channel Maker consistently competes in the big races and is generally competitive. Bill Mott is a good turf trainer and looks for the upset.

Race Analysis: This race is seems to have a standout in Bricks and Mortar. I will single Bricks and Mortar in cheaper pick 4 tickets and for my big ticket I suggest going with the top 2 choices (Bricks and Mortar and Channel Maker)

Belmont Stakes 1 (Race 11)

Now to the main event, the 151stBelmont Stakes.  For a full analysis of the Belmont Stakes field check out our race preview and also my video below.

 ** If you are unfamiliar with Horse Racing or wagering on the ponies make sure to stop in by Friday at 11:30 EST  for our Awesemo Odds betting show where we will be giving a full analysis of everything you need to know for Saturday’s big day of racing **

SUGGESTED PICK 4 TICKET

 $.50 Wager

 Race 8 – #1, #2, #4, #6, #9, #10, #11

 Race 9 – #1, #2, #3, #4

 Race 10 – #8, #10

 Race 11 – #9, #10

 Ticket Cost: $56

Sequence Analysis

As you can see I believe that the first 2 races are pretty wide open, while the last 2 races I feel the standouts will win. The pool should get well above the $1.5 Million Guarantee and is a great bet to be involved throughout this great card. If you have more money to spend I would suggest using more horses in race 8 and race 9.

 Best of luck to everyone that is wagering on the Belmont Stakes Day races at Belmont Park!

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