The NFL Betting Column with Ben Rasa: Super Bowl Sunday NFL Picks ATS, Odds and Lines

The big one if finally here as Super Bowl Sunday is approaching. It has been a long year and after a ton of football, we are down to the final two teams. Miami is the location for Super Bowl LIV and we have the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers facing off. The Super Bowl is an event unlike basically any other and there are 1,000 different angles to break down. We have more bets available on this game than anything all season, ranging from the generic spread all the way to props that are purely for entertainment.

This article is going to focus on the more mainstream betting angles as I will break down each team and list a few lines that are appealing. Make sure to stay tuned for additional content and our upcoming Super Bowl Special show on Friday which will touch on DFS, spreads, props and everything else you could possibly want for the big game.

** When looking at lines, one of the important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the markets.**

Super Bowl LIV

Sunday 6:30 p.m. EST : Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs San Francisco 49ers , O/U 54.5

Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC champion Chiefs didn’t exactly have to go through a gauntlet to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. They got a bye thanks to the Patriots and then faced the Texans in the Divisional Round. After falling down 24 points in the first half, they rounded into form and the offensive explosion launched them into the Conference Championship against Tennessee.

The Titans were also able to punch first against Kansas City, but similar to Houston, they had no answers for Patrick Mahomes once he got in gear. Mahomes threw eight touchdowns without an interception during this playoff stretch and that obviously will need to continue to have a chance here. The matchup is going to be significantly tougher here against the 49ers, but Kansas City is loaded with weapons across the board.

For the pass catchers, Tyreek Hill is the burner while Travis Kelce is a matchup problem for whoever San Francisco may put on him. If Mahomes has time, then Kansas City will have the advantage as it is impossible to hold up against these weapons for a long time. Andy Reid is a master at getting them in space and that’s one of the key chess matches to watch in this one.

Defensively, the Chiefs need to force Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball. I will dig more into the 49ers in a second, but the Chiefs defense isn’t nearly the caliber of San Francisco’s and they will do their best to get off the field as fast as possible so Mahomes can go back to work.

San Francisco 49ers

NFC champion 49ers had a tougher road to Miami than Kansas City, but it also wasn’t anything outrageous. The biggest storyline of the 2019-20 season arguably was the race for the top seed in the NFC as it came down to the final regular season game. The 49ers stopping Seattle on that last drive allowed them to get home field throughout and it paved the way for them to be here.

So far, the 49ers have been relying on their unstoppable running game and top-end defense to get the job done. Garoppolo’s arm should be rested considering he threw a whopping eight times in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay. The luxury for the 49ers is they do not need their quarterback to be great in order to win, and that probably will be the plan here once again. In Garoppolo’s defense, he has shown himself capable when they need him, but I’m sure they’d love to see sub-20 passing attempts in this one.

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Defensively, this unit is now much healthier and will test the Chiefs in ways they haven’t seen. The front is fantastic and their ability to cause pressure without blitzing is one of the storylines to monitor. Nick Bosa has dark horse MVP interest from me at long odds, and the matchup against the Chiefs offensive line could easily decide who comes out on top here.

Kansas City is much weaker on the ground so the ground. The Titans wanted to exploit that, but they fell behind and had to slowly abandon their gameplan. Whoever dictates tempo early will be in the best situation to execute their preferred offensive attack.

The Plays

Under 54.5 -110

We haven’t had many Super Bowls that are a virtual pick-’em in recent years and it’s a nice change of pace. The props are all structured differently when you have two teams evenly matched and it’s my preferred type of game to try and find value in. The over/under sits at 54.5 and although everyone loves scoring, I lean to the under in this spot.

We know the 49ers’ gameplan is to control the clock with long methodical drives to keep Mahomes off the field. That immediately should help take large chunks of time off the clock if they are successful, and against this Chiefs front, I think they will be. I had this same idea when the Titans came to town, but the problem was that Tennessee couldn’t stop the Chiefs and the game devolved from there. This San Francisco defense is more than equipped to prevent large plays over the top.

I am not saying Kansas City won’t put up points, or that I think Mahomes can’t move the ball, but I would be surprised to see this mirror the Titans game. If Kansas City is successful, I think they will be forced into sustaining longer drives rather than those explosive plays they are known for. With multiple avenues of clock-eating offense, 54.5 is too many points in my book.

Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes -110

We have every player prop imaginable for the Super Bowl, which is one of the many reasons why it is such a big event. You can bet cross-sport props and find over/unders on just about anyone who is on the field. Mahomes, of course, is the central figure in the game so he has props covering all aspects of his game, including how many touchdowns he will throw. The line is -110 on both sides with the number at 2.5 and I will be taking a position that it falls under that mark.

Mahomes is fantastic and nobody can dispute that. But there are too many circumstances where this game slows down too much. First is the obvious one where San Francisco hold sthe Chiefs to limited scoring opportunities and the team doesn’t score three touchdowns, which is an auto win for this bet.

Second is that even if the Chiefs are successful in putting up points, they have many weapons that can get in the end zone outside the passing game. Damien Williams has been a massive red zone threat with three touchdowns in the two playoff games and it is not impossible for Hill or Mecole Hardman to get a few touches in the backfield. Naturally, with me liking the under in the game, I like the under on a lot of scoring props and this is one I will be taking a shot with.

** Make sure to head over and check out our Super Bowl Special show on Friday 12 PM EST where we breakdown every aspect of the big game from all angles**

 If you have any questions find me in the Awesemo Premium slack chat or on Twitter @JazzrazDFS

Good Luck everyone!

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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