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Tennis DFS Picks: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Bublik for DraftKings, February 4 (FREE)

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Caleb's FREE Tennis DFS Picks for February 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel, takes a look at Felix Auger-Aliassime and more.

Typically the weeks immediately after majors feature pretty weak fields, and that’s exactly what we have this week. All three tournaments are 250-level, the lowest level of ATP tournaments, and the top seeds are Benoit Paire, Gael Monfils and Diego Schwartzman. Nevertheless, DraftKings has posted some pretty contests and we have 16 matches to pick from on this tennis DFS slate. For reference, Montpellier is played on indoor hard courts, Cordoba is played on clay, and Pune is played on outdoor hard courts. Keep in mind that because of the surface speed of indoor hard courts especially, we expect to see far more aces and fewer breaks at Montpellier than Cordoba.

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Felix Auger-Aliassime (DraftKings $8,200; FanDuel N/A)

It’s on brand for me to be on Auger-Aliassime, but it’s hard not to like him at his price against Damir Dzumhur. Auger-Aliassime’s form has been up and down; he played like garbage at the ATP Cup, then lost a tight match to Andrey Rublev in the semifinals of Adelaide. Then he followed that up with a flameout against Ernests Gulbis in the first round of the Australian Open. I think he was a victim of fatigue against Gulbis, who is much more talented than his ranking. Now Auger-Aliassime has had a couple weeks off to rest and Dzumhur has been stuck in qualifiers for this event. I wouldn’t lock Auger-Aliassime in to all of my lineups because his range of outcomes is all over the place, but he has arguably the highest upside of the entire slate.

Emil Ruusuvuori (DraftKings $8,100; FanDuel N/A)

Ruusuvuori is a relatively unknown 20-year-old from Finland who has spent most of his career thus far at the Challenger level. He has two pretty impressive wins — beating Dominic Thiem in two sets in the ATP Cup in September and sweeping Jannik Sinner at a Challenger event last month. He doesn’t have a massive serve (6% Aces), but he breaks at an extremely high rate (33%), even on hard courts. Trusting young players to be consistent is always risky, but I’ll take the guy who posted a 56-10 record on hard courts over the last 52 weeks over Dennis Novak, someone whose career has seemingly plateaued as a fringe ATP player.  

Alexander Bublik (DraftKings $9,200; FanDuel N/A)

There may not be a more maddening player on tour than Alexander Bublik. In more ways than one, he is like a mini-Nick Kyrgios: powerful serve, trick shots, underhanded serves, arguing with the umpire, etc. When he’s motivated and in form, he can be extremely dominant

Bublik faces Henri Laaksonen, another player whose career sort of flatlined at the fringe-ATP/Challenger level. They’ve faced once before in 2017 and Bublik won 6-1, 6-1 despite only firing 6.5% Aces. With Bublik, there’s always the potential that he completely melts down on the court, but assuming he doesn’t, he should advance through Laaksonen with ease.

Thiago Monteiro (DraftKings $7,500; FanDuel N/A)

Maybe the most interesting match of the slate features 20-year-old Frenchman Corentin Moutet against Thiago Monteiro. Monteiro has made a living playing in these high altitude, clay court, South American ATP/Challenger events. These tournaments are different than your typical clay events because of the altitude — thinner air is harder to breathe and the ball moves differently than on your typical clay courts in Europe. We typically see more aces and holds at higher elevations, for example. Moutet showed well at Quito last year, upsetting Ivo Karlovic before losing in the quarterfinals. However, I lean towards the player with more experience in these events, as well as one who’s posted better serve numbers over the last 52 weeks.

Best of luck!

Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Awesemo.com. Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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