We’re into day four of this week’s major, and with that comes another big slate for us to breakdown. The fourth slate of this tennis DFS week has 26 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios, so let’s dive in.
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Rafael Nadal (DraftKings $11,200; FanDuel $28)
Rafael Nadal was the best hard court player in 2019 with a 31-3 record on the season. He captured another major title at the U.S. Open and he helped Spain take down the Davis Cup. Nadal has lost just 15 matches on hard courts in the last three years, showing how tough of a player he is. He started this week off with a blowout win over Hugo Dellien, facing just two break points while winning 86% of first serve points. He could easily take home the trophy by the end of next week, and his next step is today.
Nadal is going up against Federico Delbonis, the ATP No. 76 from Argentina. Delbonis had a rough 2019 hard court season, posting a 7-10 record on the year. He played an excellent first-round match this week however, firing down aces at a 26% rate while winning 94% of first serve points. Nadal won their only head-to-head matchup on hard courts 6-2, 6-1, and I expect a similar result today.
Nick Kyrgios (DraftKings $9,500; FanDuel $20)
Nick Kyrgios is one of the most entertaining players to watch in tennis. He has the talent and the skill to be a top-five player, it just comes down to his mentality. Kyrgios was 20-9 in 2019 while capturing titles in Acapulco and Washington. 10 of his wins were in those tournaments, which shows that he can do a lot more when he tries his hardest. Kyrgios won his first match this week in straight sets over Lorenzo Sonego, and I think he’ll have no issue doing the same today.
Kyrgios has a second-round matchup against Gilles Simon, the ATP No. 61 from France. Simon isn’t the player he once was when he cracked the top 10, but he can still compete at a high level. He’s 12-18 in his last 30 hard court matches with only two wins coming against top-50 players. Simon made his first round match look easy against a struggling Pablo Cuevas, winning 89% of first serve points. However Kyrgios will be too much to handle in his home country, and I expect the Australian to win in three sets.
Danielle Collins (DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel $18)
Danielle Collins has played some lightsout tennis so far in 2020. She is 6-2 on the year, including two wins over top-15 players in straight sets. She is striking the ball with a ton of force, which can lead to a lot of errors but she’s making it work. Her first match this week was not so hot on the service end, double faulting at a 16% rate, but it was an anomaly. Collins is playing arguably the best tennis of her career at the moment, so we’re going to roll with her for tennis DFS.
Collins has a meeting with Yulia Putintseva, the WTA No. 38. Putintseva has also had a hot start to her 2020 campaign, with a 7-2 record so far on the year. She won her first match this week in straight sets over Su Wei Hsieh, winning 70% of all service points without dropping a service game. However, one of her losses in 2020 came against Collins in an absolute blowout. Collins won 6-1, 6-0 and Putintseva won just 32% of her service points. Collins is my favorite tennis DFS play of the day.
Possible upset/value plays: Kevin Anderson (DraftKings $7,500; FanDuel $16)
Kevin Anderson is back in action after a long injury stint, and he’s playing some solid tennis already. He is 3-1 so far in 2020 with his lone loss coming against Novak Djokovic in a tight two-set match. He had to fight through a five-set match to start off this week against Ilya Ivashka, firing down aces at a 10% rate along the way. The time that it took to complete that match might have an effect on his body, but he has the experience to keep pushing in this tournament.
Anderson is facing off against Taylor Fritz, the ATP No. 34 from the U.S. It’s hard to know which Fritz is going to show up to each match, and he is far too inconsistent for me to back. He is 2-3 to start 2020, and even though his first match was flawless, I can’t fall into the trap. He won 74% of all service points while saving every break point he faced against Tallon Griekspoor. Anderson has been here too many times to throw in the towel now, and I expect a long, hard fought match with the South African coming out on top.
Best of luck!