We’re into day five of this week’s major, and with that comes another big slate for us to breakdown. The fifth slate of this tennis DFS week has 16 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Serena Williams and Sofia Kenin, so let’s dive in.
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Serena Williams (DraftKings $10,600; FanDuel $25)
Serena Williams is playing some of her best tennis so far in 2020. The 23-time grand slam champion is 7-0 this season while dropping just one set. She captured the title in Auckland last week, firing down aces at a 10% rate along the way. Williams is by far the biggest hitter on the WTA tour, and the only way to take her down is to get her on the move. She’s been lights out so far this week, serving aces at a 16% rate while winning 68% of all service points. I think she has the title in the bag if she can keep playing at this level.
Williams is facing off against Qiang Wang, the WTA No. 29 from China. Wang has had a solid start to her 2020 campaign with a 4-2 record. Both losses came against top-40 players, and her serve was getting eaten alive. Wang faced 30 break points in those matches, winning just 54% of service points. Wang knows all too well what it’s like to play Williams, losing 6-1, 6-0 at the U.S. Open a few months ago. Williams took her out in 44 minutes with Wang winning only 16% of her first serve points. I expect another blowout.
Roberto Bautista Agut (DraftKings $9,200; FanDuel $19)
Roberto Bautista Agut has been stellar this season with an 8-0 record. He didn’t drop a single set during the ATP Cup, helping team Spain reach the finals. Bautista Agut started this week right where he left off, winning 83% of first serve points while dropping just two service games. He isn’t the most powerful player on the tour, but his consistency is right at the top. He makes the opponent work for every single shot, which was seen in his straight set win over Nick Kyrgios two weeks ago.
Bautista Agut has a meeting with Marin Čilić, the ATP No. 39 from Croatia. Čilić certainly hasn’t been at this best as of late, winning just 16 out of his last 30 hard court matches. But he has the ability to go deep in the major tournaments and we’ve seen why this week. Čilić won his first-round match in straight sets and then he took our Benoît Paire in an epic five-set battle. Čilić won 80% of first serve points in that match while breaking serve six times. Bautista Agut has the 2-0 head-to-head edge in major hard court matches, however, so I’m rolling with the more consistent player at the moment for tennis DFS.
Sofia Kenin (DraftKings $8,600; FanDuel $18)
Sofia Kenin was arguably one of the best hard court players in the 2019 season with a 38-16 record on the year. She took down titles in Hobart and Guangzhou and she was an alternate at the WTA Finals. Kenin is 4-2 so far in 2020 and she’s been red hot to start the week. She’s serving aces at a 5% rate while winning 68% of first serve points, but the rallies and her baseline game is what wins her matches.
Kenin has a third-round matchup against Shuai Zhang, the WTA No. 35 from China. Zhang has also had a spectacular 2020 season with a 7-2 record. She reached the finals in Hobart last week and she picked up right where she left off this week. She’s winning 86% of first serve points while not dropping a single service game. Zhang has the head-to-head advantage at 1-0, but Kenin is a much different player now. I’m picking the American to get it done in straight sets.
Possible upset/value plays: Dušan Lajović (DraftKings $6,100; FanDuel $11)
I’m not sure what got into him, but Dušan Lajović has been playing some unbelievable tennis in 2020. He is 6-2 on the hard courts to start the year, taking down both Karen Khachanov and Felix Auger Aliassime in straight sets. Lajović is firing down aces at an 8% rate so far this week while winning 75% of first serve points. The return game has been even better with 20 break point chances in two matches and converting on eight of them.
Lajović is up against Diego Schwartzman, the ATP No. 14 from Argentina. Schwartzman is 3-3 so far in 2020, but two of his losses were against top-five players. He is yet to drop a set so far this week, winning 71% of first serves while breaking serve 13 times. Schwartzman has the 1-0 head-to-head advantage in this matchup, but it was a four-hour, five-set battle at the Australian Open two years ago. I think Lajović is too cheap in this spot and he’s been playing extremely well so I’ll take the risk in tennis DFS.
Best of luck!