We’re into Day Four of this tennis DFS week, and some of the top players in the game will be on court. The fourth slate of this tennis DFS week has 12 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We’ve got thoughts on Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, so let’s dive in.
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Novak Djokovic (DraftKings $10,000; FanDuel $23)
Novak Djokovic is back in action after taking down the title in Toyko last week. He didn’t drop a single set in that tournament while getting his serve broken just twice. The world number one is 25-5 on the hard courts this year while capturing a title at the Australian Open. Djokovic is now a +110 favorite to win this week’s tournament, which is a bit high, but that just shows the level of tennis he can play at. The world number one is on his way to another title, and he has a favorable match ahead of him.
Djokovic has a third-round meeting against John Isner, the ATP world number 17 from the U.S. You never know what to expect out of Isner, but what you can rely on is his booming serve. Isner is 23-14 on the hard courts this year while reaching the final at the Miami Masters tournament. On this surface in 2019, Isner is firing down aces at an outstanding 28% rate and holding serve 95% of the time. He is yet to face a break point this week, but that will change today. Djokovic is the best returner to ever play the game and he had the best of Isner the last time they played, 6-4 6-3. I imagine Isner will be a somewhat popular play, but it’s a trap.
Roger Federer (DraftKings $9,600; FanDuel $21)
Roger Federer has been excellent as always with a 24-4 record on the hard courts this year. He captured titles in both Dubai and Miami, and he’s aiming for a third this week. Federer played a flawless first-round match against Albert Ramos Vinolas, as he fired down aces at a 15% rate while winning 78% of all service points. The GOAT is almost always the favorite in any matchup, and that includes today’s against an in-form player.
Roger will go up against David Goffin, the ATP world number 14. Goffin has played some stellar hard court tennis over the last few months with a 12-6 record since Wimbledon. He reached the finals in Cincinnati before falling short to Daniil Medvedev, and he made a semifinals run last week in Tokyo. David had a great service game going last week, winning 79% of first serve points while firing down aces at a 14% rate. However, he struggles against Federer. Federer took out Goffin at the U.S. Open in an absolute beatdown, 6-2, 6-2, 6-0, and I expect a similar result today..
Karen Khachanov (DraftKings $8,400; FanDuel $18)
Karen Khachanov has had a rather inconsistent season with a 15-13 record on hard courts in 2019. However, the Asia swing has been in his favor, as he’s 4-1 over the last two weeks. Khachanov played a stellar first-round match yesterday against Taylor Fritz, winning 93% of first serve points while facing zero break points. He’s been hard to back as of late, but Karen is finally looking like he found his game again.
Khachanov has a third-round matchup against Fabio Fognini, the ATP world number 12 from Italy. Fognini is on a mission to reach the ATP Finals at the end of the season and he’s playing some excellent tennis at the moment. He is 4-1 in his last five matches, including a close three-set battle over Andy Murray. It’s hard to back Fognini at times due to his erratic nature, and he showed that in his last match against Murray. Khachanov took down Fognini last week and I think the Russian will overpower him again today.
Possible upset/value plays: Andrey Rublev (DraftKings $6,800; FanDuel $13)
Andrey Rublev has been lights out over the last few months with a 16-5 record on the hard courts. He has seven wins over top 25 players during this run, and I think that number will continue to climb. Rublev’s level of play this week has been outstanding to say the least, as he’s faced just one break point while converting on seven of his 24 break chances on the return end. I don’t think he can reach the semis or finals due to the stacked field, but he can get another big win today.
Rublev is going up against Alexander Zverev, the ATP world number six from Germany. As I’ve stated many times before, I rarely back Zverev in any match. However, he has looked like the top-five player we’ve seen before as of late, and he could make a deep run this week. He is 4-1 during this Asian tournament stretch and he is really starting to pick it up on the service end. You never know what you’re going to get with Zverev, and while he has a 2-0 record against Rublev, I’m going with the Russian to out hit the German today.
Best of luck!