It’s Day Five of this tennis DFS week, and we’re getting into the later rounds of this week’s tournaments. The fifth slate of this tennis DFS week has eight matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We’ve got thoughts on Novak Djokovic and Magda Linette, so let’s dive in.
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Novak Djokovic (DraftKings $10,400; FanDuel N/A)
Novak Djokovic is playing lights-out tennis after taking down the title in Toyko last week. He didn’t drop a single set in that tournament, while getting his serve broken just twice. The world number one is 26-5 on the hard courts this year while capturing a title at the Australian Open. Djokovic is now a +100 favorite to win this week’s tournament, which is a bit high, but that just shows the level of tennis he can play at which we saw against John Isner. The world number one has yet to drop a set this week, and I expect that run to continue.
Djokovic has a quarterfinal meeting against Stefanos Tsitsipas, the ATP world number seven from Greece. Tsitsipas hasn’t been at his best in a few months, and I think he’s vulnerable to lose against anyone at the moment. He did make a finals run in Beijing last week, but his level of play hasn’t been mighty impressive since. He managed to squeeze out a third-set tiebreak win against Hubert Hurkacz last night, while saving four out of five break points. These two players are 1-1 against each other, but Djokovic cannot be stopped right now.
Magda Linette (DraftKings $9,600; FanDuel N/A)
Magda Linette is playing out of her mind, and I think it’ll take a top-10 player to take her down his week. Linette is 21-4 in her last 25 matches, including five wins over top-50 players. She captured a title in New York two months ago, and backed that up with a finals run in Seoul. Linette is in incredible form at the moment, and I think she can take down another title this week if she can play at this level consistently. She is yet to drop a set this week while losing just four games in total.
Linette will go up against Heather Watson, the WTA world number 125. Watson has not had a great hard court swing this year with a 6-11 record on the WTA tour. Four of those six wins were against players ranked outside the top 250, which just shows how bad she’s struggling to find wins. She took down the world number 22 Qiang Wang 6-3, 6-0 yesterday, but that match is an outlier. Watson saved seven of the eight break points she faced, and Wang has been in horrible form since the U.S. Open. Linette defeated Watson 6-2, 6-1 just last week, and I expect a similar result today.
Roger Federer (DraftKings $9,100; FanDuel N/A)
Roger Federer has been excellent as always with a 25-4 record on the hard courts this year. He captured titles in both Dubai and Miami, and he’s aiming for a third this week. Roger played a flawless first-round match against Albert Ramos Vinolas, as he fired down aces at a 15% rate while winning 78% of all service points. After an impressive third-round win against David Goffin, Federer will look to keep the momentum going today.
Federer will go up against Alexander Zverev, the ATP world number six from Germany. Zverev has finally found his game once again, as he’s won five out of his last six matches, all in straight sets. He dismantled an in-form Andrey Rublev yesterday, 6-0, 7-6, while winning a stellar 72% of all service points. He’s fired down 36 aces in his two matches this week and he’ll have to keep it up to stick with Federer. Their head-to-head record is 3-3, but if anyone is going to collapse in this match, it’d be Zverev.
Possible upset/value plays: Fabio Fognini (DraftKings $5,400; FanDuel N/A)
Fabio Fognini is on a mission to reach the ATP Finals at the end of the season, and he’s playing some excellent tennis at the moment. He is 5-1 in his last six matches, including a straight-set beatdown over Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov. It’s hard to back Fognini at times due to his erratic nature, but when he’s on, it’s almost impossible to stop. The matchup is not ideal, but as we saw in April when he took down the Monte Carlo tournament, he is tough to beat when he’s playing at his best.
Fognini has a quarterfinal matchup against Daniil Medvedev, the ATP world number four from Russia. Medvedev has been playing some of the best tennis that the game has ever seen over the last three months. He is 26-3 since Wimbledon while reaching five straight finals. Two of the three losses were against Rafael Nadal, who he pushed to a five-set marathon match at the U.S. Open. He did struggle a bit in his last match Vasek Pospisil, as he faced nine break points while winning just 44% of second serve points. Their head-to-head record is 1-1, and I feel an upset coming.
Best of luck!