We are into Day Six of this tennis DFS week, which means we’re into the later rounds. The sixth slate of this tennis DFS week has 8 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We’ve got thoughts on Denis Shapovalov and Stan Wawrinka, so let’s dive in.
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Denis Shapovalov (DraftKings $10,400; FanDuel N/A)
Denis Shapovalov has really improved his level of play as of late, and it’s almost time for him to crack the top 20. Denis is 25-14 on hard courts in 2019 while reaching six quarterfinals on the year. The last time he lost to a player who’s currently ranked outside the top 50 was in March, which proves that he is a tough out. The young Canadian is currently the favorite to win this tournament at +125 odds, and I don’t think that’s a bad bet at this rate.
Shapovalov will go up against Yuichi Sugita, the ATP world number 129 from Japan. Sugita is coming off of one of the best matches of the year. He survived a three hour marathon match against Janko Tipsarevic, converting on his 10th match point in the third set tiebreaker. Both players looked like they could barely walk by the end of it, and that fatigue has to carry over into this match. Shapovalov hits with some serious pace, which makes me a bit concerned about a retirement. If Sugita stays in it, Denis should win with ease.
Stan Wawrinka (DraftKings $9,200; FanDuel N/A)
Stan Wawrinka, aka Stan the Man, is back in action after having a stellar tournament at the US Open. Stan gave Novak Djokovic a straight set beatdown before falling short to the eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev, and he’s looking to continue that level this week. He’s fired down aces at a 9% rate this week while dropping just one service game. I hope to see that level of play continue, and Stan just might earn himself a spot in the finals.
Stan has a semifinal matchup against Jannik Sinner, the ATP world number 119 from Italy. Sinner is one of the up and coming stars in the game of tennis, and he’s shown why this week. He gave Gael Monfils a straight set beatdown, and then backed that up with a win over Frances Tiafoe. Sinner is winning 75% of first serve points this week while being broken twice. However, the 17 year old has faced Stan before and found little success. He took a set off of Wawrinka at the US Open, but the Swiss showed what it takes to win in the end.
Karolina Muchova (DraftKings $9,000; FanDuel N/A)
Karolina Muchova is arguably one of the top players on the WTA tour at the moment, as she’s won eight out of her last nine matches. Seven of her wins were in straight sets, and she managed to take down the title in Seoul one month ago. Her service game hasn’t been firing this week as she’s lost seven service games in three matches, but she still hasn’t been close to losing a set. Muchova’s game is stellar all around, and I don’t see anyone taking her down this weekend.
Muchova has a meeting with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the WTA world number 40 from Russia. Pavlyuchenkova has been solid on the hard courts since Wimbledon, with a 12-8 record on the surface. She reached the finals in Osaka one month ago, blowing out two top-15 players along the way. Pavlyuchenkova is back home in Russia this week playing some excellent tennis, but her poor service game is going to catch up to her. She’s dropped 10 service games in her last two matches, and I expect a beatdown from Muchova.
Possible upset/value plays: Jelena Ostapenko (DraftKings $7,600; FanDuel N/A)
Jelena Ostapenko used to be on my blacklist for DFS, but her new coach is making massive improvements. Jelena has been the most inconsistent player on the WTA for well over a year, but she has played dominant tennis recently. She reached the finals in Linz last week, and backed that up with an impressive win over Elise Mertens this week. When she’s on fire it is tough to stop, and Jelena is in a prime position to reach another final.
Ostapenko will go up against Anna Blinkova, the WTA world number 66 from Russia. Blinkova has played some excellent tennis since the US Open, with a 13-3 record on the hard courts. 10 of those wins came in straight sets, but the level of competition hasn’t been too high. She is 0-2 against top 50 opponents, and while Ostapenko doesn’t fit within that range, she’s playing like it at the moment. Blinkova has dropped just one service game this week, but Jelena has converted on 16 break points. Something has to crack, and I think it’ll be Ostapenko to come out on top.
Best of luck!